India's democracy boasts a staggering 970 million voters, eclipsing Europe, the US, and Australia combined. In 2014, Narendra Modi's BJP (Bhartiya Janata Party- India’s Peoples Party), came into power and has since established itself as the dominant political force in India. In the election that takes place from 19 April to 1 June 2024, the recently formed opposition bloc, INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance), in which the Indian National Congress is the biggest member, faces an uphill battle to topple the incumbent government. This article explores how the BJP achieved its current status and what to expect from a likely third term for Prime Minister Modi.

The last decade has shown that Modi defies easy categorization, exhibiting traits of welfarism, nationalism, and globalism. One of the most obvious observations is the significant progress his government made in realizing long-pending infrastructure projects. Modi has also pursued economic reforms along with visible welfare programs in an effort to blend economic agility with political appeal. The creation of the Digital Public Infrastructure is testament to this. According to the World Bank, in six years leading up to 2023, 80 percent of Indians have been absorbed into the banking system. In 2013, barely 35 percent Indians had bank accounts. Eager to package this achievement into a political message, Modi was quoted as saying that “ensuring hundred percent coverage of welfare schemes irrespective of caste, creed, gender, and region is the real secularism.” With messages such as these, Modi is trying to address the opposition’s criticism that the BJP threatens the very idea of a secular state.

The much-improved reach of welfare schemes, which previous governments have conceptualized but failed to roll out in the way the BJP did, is a strategic policy choice of the BJP. Additionally, Modi demonstrated the political fortitude to execute actions that were hitherto considered off-limits and that have, in some cases, drawn much flak from his opponents. After coming into power, the government turned long-discussed policies into reality, like the significant move to abrogate the temporary Article 370 that gave special status to Kashmir. The opposition criticized this decision as a harsh clampdown that deprives India’s single Muslim-majority region of political autonomy. The BJP on the other hand depicted it as the total integration of Kashmir. While the Indian supreme court has upheld the abrogation of Article 370 as constitutional, it demanded legislative assembly elections for Kashmir before the end of September.

Arguably one of the major issues in the lead-up to this election was the inauguration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya in January. On the one hand, the completion of the temple has been a long-standing campaign promise of the BJP. This endeavor has been supported by a Supreme Court judgment, which found that early temple-like structures devoted to Ram had existed in the same place. On the other hand, in the 16th century, a mosque was built on those structures, which led to years of protests from the Hindu community and eventually culminated in the demolition of the mosque by a violent mob in 1992. During the inauguration of the new temple, Modi struck a conciliatory tone. His speech was designed to convey the idea that Modi does not dream of an ideal Hindu state, but rather promoted the idea of a “politically aware” Hindu. These remarks were consistent with his efforts over recent years to co-opt others beyond his Hindu base. The BJP has effectively employed a strategy of combining social outreach based on caste dynamics with innovative social media engagement.

The run-up to the election has seen a few upsets. One highly debated event was the arrest of Delhi’s Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party, which is part of the opposition INDIA bloc, over the alleged receipt of party funds in exchange for excise policy changes. Despite the Chief Minister’s arrest, the opposition’s failure to form a united front in response to this event raises questions about leaders’ steadfastness. The Delhi High Court’s observation about potential money laundering involving Kerjriwal weakens his moral argument. With the case currently pending in the Supreme Court, both political sides are still seeking to gain political advantage from the incident. Experience over the last decade shows that voters will oust BJP governments from numerous provinces when presented with a viable alternative. At the national level, however, persistent internal conflicts among opposition leaders have been hindering progress towards a consistent policy agenda and power sharing agreements. In contrast, the BJP has strategically formed alliances with regional parties.

In an effort to counter the BJP’s narrative, the main opposition Congress party has shifted its policies towards the center, focusing on economic and national security issues. It emphasizes a rights-based approach in major policy areas such as religion, employment, and health. However, for many people some of Rahul Gandhi’s remarks regarding the redistribution of wealth, caste census, and reservation still echo the socialist sentiments seen in Indian films pre-1991 liberalization. This leaves Congress with a hard sell when it comes to providing a cohesive and forward-looking vision to voters. Yet, after two phases of polling, observers indicate that the Congress Party has in some parts been successful in localizing the national elections. It also appears that Modi has recalibrated his outreach by extracting vague points from the Congress party's campaign and adding a religious flavor to his political rhetoric.

Besides, the BJP has grown increasingly savvy in its communication. It addresses “four aspirational classes” – the poor, youth, farmers, and women – and consistently broadcasts its goal of turning India into a developed nation by 2047. In the BJP’s strategy, the “aspirational classes” should feel emboldened to view India’s global standing in a new light. The BJP wants to harness people’s aspirations by suggesting that if someone like Modi, who came from humble beginnings, can achieve global recognition, so can the nation as a whole. From youth’s perspective, BJP’s adept use of social media influencers and gamers aids campaign management and particularly attracts voters aged 18 to 29. By leveraging AI, the BJP tailors its messaging to each target group and communicates with voters in at least 8 regional languages of India.

Outlook

For the BJP electorate, the second term of Modi has delivered on two emotive issues, Article 370 and the Ram temple. The BJP manifesto released on 14 April 2024 offers some clues as to what expect for a probably third term. While it seeks to merge the concepts of developmental and Hindu nationalism, it clearly affords priority to the economic dimension. Modi aims to strike a balance between individual rights and duties along with a blend of technology-led vikas (development) and virasat (legacy). Notably, in foreign policy, the BJP plans to launch global outreach programs promoting the teachings of Lord Ram and civilizational values. There could also be a visible shift towards unapologetic and confident global interaction, with a focus on being a friend of the world (Vishwbandhu) rather than a teacher (Vishwaguru). It is worth noting that while Indian diplomacy has at times been perceived as overly didactic and even arrogant, the concept of Vishwabandhu alludes to pragmatic and equal partnerships based on the rationality of the issues at hand.

Aniket Bhavthankar is a PhD candidate based in Hamburg. The views expressed in this article are his own.