Summary
—Tanzania has recently begun to re-emerge from a period of damaging isolationism under former president John Magufuli. This isolationism obstructed international investment and undermined the country’s credible history of global and continental leadership. Following Magufuli’s death in 2021, his successor, Samia Suluhu Hassan, commissioned an official review of foreign policy strategy – seeking a first refresh of policy for over two decades. This review provides a chance to consolidate Tanzania’s revival as an economic and diplomatic leader.
— Tanzania’s rising economic influence and its ambitions to complete major cross-border railway and energy infrastructure projects will demand a more active leadership role on regional integration efforts, alongside commitments on peacekeeping and conflict mediation.
— Re-engagement with a range of international partners is already delivering greater choice and resilience in trade and foreign investment links. Examples of this are the pursuit of stronger ties with countries such as Indonesia and Vietnam; the consolidation of emerging strategic partnerships, particularly with the Gulf Arab states; and a repair of established relations with China, India and Western partners.
— A gradual renewal of Tanzania’s commitment and voice on international and multilateral issues is also under way. But this renewal is yet to be reinforced by decisive action to rejoin frameworks from which the country withdrew at the peak of its isolationism under Magufuli. President Samia’s foreign policy review may target further opportunities for leadership on global challenges and opportunities, including on climate change, critical minerals and peacebuilding.
— Entrenched suspicion of external investment remains a significant obstacle in the pursuit of external partnerships, exacerbated by a lack of coordination between economic diplomacy objectives and incomplete domestic governance and democratic reforms. The suppression of public debate – most notably in relation to controversy surrounding investments in Tanzanian port infrastructure by Gulf states – risks making this obstacle larger still.
— Bolder steps are needed to create long-term safeguards against a return to isolation or cautious disengagement. The foreign policy review currently under way must target a refreshed strategic vision that emphasizes the assertive and positive dimensions of non-alignment.