France ahead of the parliamentary elections

Nail-biter for Macron, France and Europe

The resounding victory of the Rassemblement National in the European elections on 9 July and the fact that the governing Renaissance party only received half as many votes as the right-wing populists led President Emmanuel Macron to the decision to dissolve the National Assembly on the evening of the election and announce new elections to be held on 30 June and 7 July. The parties had until 16 June just one week, to draw up their electoral lists and form possible electoral alliances. The early parliamentary elections, which will be held in two rounds, will be a nail biter for Macron, who is playing high stakes and gambling with his own political fate. France is in danger of reaching an impasse for the next legislative period. The scenario of cohabitation seems very realistic in view of current poll results. Europe would then be faced with a right-wing populist prime minister in one of the founding states of the EU. The Franco-German engine would stutter even more.

In Search of the Least Evil

The ÖVP between the European and National Council Elections

Around 6.4 million Austrians are among the 3.6 billion people worldwide who will be able to vote in the super election year of 2024, most of whom will be going to the ballot box several times – or have already done so. The focus of attention will be on the National Council election on September 29, which follows the recent European elections by a considerable margin. There are also state elections in Vorarlberg and Styria. Since June 9, the motto "after the election is before the election" has applied to federal politics, as for most of the Austrian parties, the European elections were merely a "preliminary skirmish", conducted with little enthusiasm, for the much more decisive election in the fall from an Austrian perspective. Nevertheless, the results of the European elections, which were surprising in many respects, could well have set the course for the National Council elections in the fall.

Presidential Elections 2024 in Mauritania

A pillar of hope in the Sahel region

Presidential elections are due to be held in Mauritania on June 29, 2024. Despite general expecta-tions that the incumbent President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani will be re-elected, political tension remains, including for partners in Europe. This is because Mauritania has gained in importance for the EU in recent years in the Sahel region, which is experiencing coups. The European Union has concluded security and migration cooperation agreements with the only democratically elected government in the Sahel region. The desert state therefore plays an important role as a connecting country between the countries of the Maghreb and sub-Saharan Africa.

GERB wins again in sixth parliamentary election in a row and is also victorious in the European elections

A country in search of political stability

On 9 June, parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria for the sixth time in just over two years to coincide with the European elections, because GERB-SDS and PP-DB were unable to agree in March to continue their cooperation in the government by changing the prime minister after nine months. The incumbent Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov of PP-DB was to be replaced by Maria Gabriel of GERB, but this did not materialise due to internal contradictions within PP-DB.

European elections in Spain and Portugal

Spanische PP gewinnt mit größtem Vorsprung zur PSOE seit 1999 – In Portugal stagnieren Sozialisten und Liberalkonservative, Rechtspopulisten und Liberale gewinnen erstmals Mandate

In Spain, the PP won against the PSOE by the clearest margin since 1999, by 4% and a lead of around 700,000 votes. Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) thus doubled his relative lead over Pedro Sánchez (PSOE) compared to the national elections on 23 July 2023, when he was only ahead by around 350,000 votes. The PP won the European elections in direct comparison in all Spanish provinces against the PSOE, except in the Basque Country, Navarre, Catalonia and the Canary Islands. Thanks to its shift to the left, the PSOE absorbed some of the voters of the regionalists and the far-left parties Podemos and Sumar. In Portugal, on the other hand, Aliança Democrática (PSD and CDS-PP), which has formed a minority government led by Prime Minister Luís Montenegro at national level since April, lost very narrowly to Pedro Nuno Santos' Socialists. Although he was able to make slight gains, Montenegro was therefore unable to make significant gains in just a few weeks since taking office. Despite 300,000 additional votes, the PSD and CDS-PP stagnated at seven seats. However, the Socialists also lost one mandate and ended up with eight seats. As a result, they also lost favour with voters. The transfer of votes goes to the new parties. Only the right-wing populist Chega and the Liberal Initiative grew, both entering the European Parliament for the first time and gaining two seats each.

The European Elections from the Inside

Election coverage issued by the European Office of the Konrad- Adenauer-Stiftung on the 2024 European elections

The election report "European Elections from the Inside" presents the results of the 2024 elections to the European Parliament from a European and national perspective. Together with the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung offices across Europe, a concise overview was compiled for each of the 27 member states of the European Union (EU), which analyses the results in the respective countries against the backdrop of current developments. The series of reports is intended to contribute to a deeper understanding of the overall outcome of the 2024 European elections.

Schweizer Wählerinnen und Wähler lehnen Krankenkassenreform-Vorschläge ab

Am vergangenen Sonntag wurde in der Schweiz über zwei Initiativen zur Senkung der Gesundheitskosten abgestimmt. Trotz großer Sorgen über die steigenden Kosten im Gesundheitssystem scheiterten die Vorlagen der Sozialdemokratischen Partei (SP) - die Prämien- Entlastungs-Initiative - und der Partei Die Mitte - die Kostenbremse-Initiative - mit jeweils 44,5% und 37,2% Zustimmung. Die Vorlage der Schweizer Impfgegner „Für Freiheit und körperliche Unversehrtheit“ erfuhr mit lediglich 26,3% der Stimmen eine klare Absage. Als einzig erfolgreiche Vorlage des Wahlabends wurde das „Bundesgesetz über eine sichere Stromversorgung mit erneuerbaren Energien“ mit 68,7% der Stimmen angenommen. Die Wahlbeteiligung lag bei 45,4% und somit knapp unter dem Durchschnitt der letzten Volksabstimmungen.

The dawn of the gods in India?

An analysis of the Indian parliamentary elections

India has voted and the Prime Minister is called Narendra Damodardas Modi once again. Contrary to the latest election forecasts, however, Prime Minister Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) suffered significant seat losses. While the BJP had won a landslide victory in 2019 with 303 seats, this time it won 240 seats. This means that the BJP can no longer rule alone in the 543-seat lower house, the Lok Sabha. For the first time, Modi will now have to rely on his coalition partners from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to form a government. The party alliance received a total of 292 votes. India is now returning to a coalition government after a decade-long hiatus - a phenomenon that Modi did not experience during his three terms as chief minister of the state of Gujarat or during his two terms as prime minister.

Surprising Election Results in Belgium

Victory of the "lesser evil" confirms Belgium's Shift to the Right

The Resultate of the Belgian elections surprised everyone - including the winners themselves. The N-VA, which became the strongest force at federal and Flemish level, is celebrating its victory - with its leader Bart de Wever at its centre. Despite this surprise, the election in Belgium confirmed the country's shift to the right - led by the nationalist N-VA and followed by the right-wing populist Vlaams Belang. The polarisation between the regions - albeit slightly weakened – remains lasting and will make it difficult to form a government at national level.

Romania has voted

Cementing the status quo

2024 is also a super election year in Romania. The European and local elections kicked off on June 9, 2024. These showed: the status quo got cemented with the elections. Despite a very high level of political frustration in the country, the major parties in the Romanian ruling coalition managed to secure a clear majority of almost 50% for their joint electoral list in the European elections. The coalition parties also clearly win the local elections. However, it is also clear that the decisive position of power in the country will not be at stake until the presidential elections in September.