Titre unique
Russian influence and interests in the Western Balkans are primarily centered around Serbia. According to a 2024 survey by the International Republican Institute (IRI), for Kosovar citizens, after Serbia (83%), Russia (8%) is seen as the main threat to the country, while 87% say that the country’s foreign policy should only be pro-European Union and pro-West, and 59% say that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is completely unjustified.
Main takeaways from this paper include: Russia deploys state-controlled media (RT, Sputnik) and partners with Iranian outlets to spread narratives portraying Kosovo as a failed state, full of instability. Russia capitalizes on deep cultural, religious, and political ties with Serbia to maintain influence in the Balkans, utilizing ties with the the Serbian Orthodox Church and with Serbian elites to the detriment of Kosovo. There are indications that Russia had prior knowledge of or involvement in the Banjska terrorist attack in Kosovo, aimed at escalating tensions. By stirring instability in Kosovo, Russia aims to divert Western attention and resources away from Ukraine, creating a multi-front challenge for NATO and the EU.
One of Russia’s goals in the Western Balkans is to prevent Serbia’s alignment with the West, and one way it facilitates this is by staunchly supporting Serbia’s position on Kosovo and undermining the process of normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia. Sometimes, Russia even criticizes Serbia when it sees there is some progress in EU-led normalization dialogue. A full normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia would deal a significant blow to Russia’s influence in both Serbia and the broader Western Balkans.
Another way how Russia promotes is strategic interests in the Western Balkans is through disinformation. According to experts, Russia allocates between 1 to 4 billion dollars annually to its information warfare efforts. In stark contrast, countries in the Western Balkans, such as North Macedonia, Kosovo, and Bulgaria, allocate only about $20,000 annually to counter these threats. Experts argue that one of the main goals of Russian disinformation in the Western Balkans is to undermine trust in the United States, NATO, the European Union, and the democratic processes that these countries are aspiring to integrate with.
In countries like Kosovo, North Macedonia, and Bulgaria, the disinformation campaigns emphasize that democracy is not working, and that EU integration is not the solution. Studies focused on Kosovo have shown how such disinformation campaigns have had some effect in creating cracks in the Euro-Atlantic consensus on Kosovo, which is to say that political elites no longer refrain from making the decisions of strategic relevance for Euro-Atlantic integration of the country part of the daily politicking. Among Russia’s key strategic interests in the Western Balkans is using the existing divides and exacerbating religious and ethnic differences to counter the attempts by Western countries to incorporate Balkan countries in both EU and NATO.
Main takeaways from this paper include: Russia deploys state-controlled media (RT, Sputnik) and partners with Iranian outlets to spread narratives portraying Kosovo as a failed state, full of instability. Russia capitalizes on deep cultural, religious, and political ties with Serbia to maintain influence in the Balkans, utilizing ties with the the Serbian Orthodox Church and with Serbian elites to the detriment of Kosovo. There are indications that Russia had prior knowledge of or involvement in the Banjska terrorist attack in Kosovo, aimed at escalating tensions. By stirring instability in Kosovo, Russia aims to divert Western attention and resources away from Ukraine, creating a multi-front challenge for NATO and the EU.
One of Russia’s goals in the Western Balkans is to prevent Serbia’s alignment with the West, and one way it facilitates this is by staunchly supporting Serbia’s position on Kosovo and undermining the process of normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia. Sometimes, Russia even criticizes Serbia when it sees there is some progress in EU-led normalization dialogue. A full normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia would deal a significant blow to Russia’s influence in both Serbia and the broader Western Balkans.
Another way how Russia promotes is strategic interests in the Western Balkans is through disinformation. According to experts, Russia allocates between 1 to 4 billion dollars annually to its information warfare efforts. In stark contrast, countries in the Western Balkans, such as North Macedonia, Kosovo, and Bulgaria, allocate only about $20,000 annually to counter these threats. Experts argue that one of the main goals of Russian disinformation in the Western Balkans is to undermine trust in the United States, NATO, the European Union, and the democratic processes that these countries are aspiring to integrate with.
In countries like Kosovo, North Macedonia, and Bulgaria, the disinformation campaigns emphasize that democracy is not working, and that EU integration is not the solution. Studies focused on Kosovo have shown how such disinformation campaigns have had some effect in creating cracks in the Euro-Atlantic consensus on Kosovo, which is to say that political elites no longer refrain from making the decisions of strategic relevance for Euro-Atlantic integration of the country part of the daily politicking. Among Russia’s key strategic interests in the Western Balkans is using the existing divides and exacerbating religious and ethnic differences to counter the attempts by Western countries to incorporate Balkan countries in both EU and NATO.