The Indispensable but Reluctant Role of Gulf States in Lebanon’s Revival

The main aim of this report is to provide a better understanding of the relationship between Gulf countries and Lebanon. Attention of the analysis of their respective roles, interests, commonalities and differences vis-à-vis Lebanon is given especially to the Gulf’s largest and economically most powerful country, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), the by regional comparison belatedly rising economic power house of Qatar, and to lesser extent other Gulf countries. The wider frameworks of geopolitical rivalries, international and regional competition over hydrocarbon assets, and the Arab perspectives defining Palestine conflict, are not in the focal range of this review. For a better understanding of the deep shifts in Lebanese-Gulf relations, different aspects of the historic relations were reviewed and specific trends identified. Based on that review the report analyses the current views of Gulf States towards Lebanon and explores future perspectives of these relations.

The role that the Gulf States can play in Lebanon seems to be strongly connected to the shape the region will take after the Gaza and Lebanon wars and the recent changes in Syria. The level of influence that Iran may have across the region in general, and in Syria and Lebanon in specific, the potential normalization of relations between the KSA and Iran on one hand and the KSA and Israel, if and when it happens, on the other, the establishment of a peace deal and creation of a Palestinian state, changes in inter-Gulf relations, and any unforeseen internal changes in any of the countries that have been party to the region’s conflict environment for now 70 years, could all have great influence on who plays which role in Lebanon.

The research methodology employed for this study involved a mixed-methods approach, including in-depth interviews with key stakeholders and experts in the field, as well as a comprehensive discourse analysis. Additionally, primary and secondary sources were reviewed, encompassing academic literature, policy documents, and case studies relevant to the topic. The main research objective was to explore the perspectives of the Gulf-Lebanon relations amidst the historical changes the region is going through, with specific questions aimed at understanding the continued validity of the pillars of the past relations, the views of the current generation of gulf leaders towards Lebanon, and the required changes in Lebanon to attract the much-needed gulf support. This approach ensures a balanced and evidence-based analysis, capturing both qualitative insights and quantitative data.