Background: The Future of Oil Prices – How low, how long?

Oil prices have fluctuated by over $100/barrel in the span of a decade: $50/barrel in January 2007, $147 in July 2008, $30 in December 2008, $123 in March 2013, $40 in August 2015. The last downturn was triggered in 2014 by OPEC’s end-of-the-year decision to not cut production, but this decision can be traced further back. OPEC’s decision was itself a result of the fact that high oil prices were enabling competition from a number of non-OPEC players.