Veranstaltungsberichte
Key Takeaways:
- China has had a great influence both in Europe & Asia and the world in the last few years, by exerting influence on political and economic elites and lobby groups, using the Silk Road initiative as a means of geopolitical re-organization, creating financial and economic dependencies, weakening Western democratic systems, influencing the scientific and cultural spheres, using espionage and misleading information, building up substantial military potential and lastly by wolf warrior diplomacy as well as by issuing not-so diplomatic threats.
- The People’s Republic of China will continue undeterred in its Global Strategy having recovered quickly from the pandemic. Its intermediate objectives are to establish China as the dominant regional power by 2021 and as a global power by 2049.
- Relations between the United States and China have entered a new low! While Beijing is pursuing the modernization of its armed forces at a rapid pace, the USA is investing billions in its navy and preparing for potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific.
- Between 2015 and 2019, many European governments signed onto the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in hopes of expanding trade and investment ties with China. All members of the 17+1 framework in eastern Europe are part of the BRI.
- In 2019, Italy became the first G7 state as well as EU and NATO founder to join the Initiative. However, while European countries remain interested in economic cooperation with China, the overall attitude towards the BRI has grown more sceptical over the years.
- The past four years have seen a rapid proliferation of national engagement policies for the Indo-Pacific. Germany is the eighth democracy to release one, and the first to do so without claiming regional membership.
- Germany’s strategy is not short on details, with nearly 70 pages of guidelines for multiple ministries across seven priority areas. It emphasizes multilateralism and urges NATO to expand ties with Japan and South Korea. It calls for the speedy conclusion of free trade agreements with countries like Australia and Indonesia and pledges to expand regional sustainable infrastructure initiatives.
- To understand China, it is imperative to understand the goals and strategies used by China’s Communist Party whose goals are to make the world secure for the continuation of their regime. It has, over the years, raised China’s power of discourse to change ideas at the global level to convince people domestically that China has the best political system in place.
- The global alliance system has not been favourable to China and thus, the CCP has a great interest in gradually shifting this in favour of the Party by offering projects like the BRI and 17+1 forum. In a way, China is signalling to countries that they could continue to be part of their alliances while becoming part of other alliances, thus gradually shifting the countries in China’s favour.
- United Front Work Department is another tool of the CCP that ties the Chinese Diaspora to the goals of the Party. It also has a broader agenda and ties it to the work of the entire party. It is very important to understand their work to get a grasp on how the CCP works. The essential work of the UFWD is to move countries to becoming friendly zone towards the CCP.
- United Front Work Department (UFWD) of the Central Committee of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) also facilitates formation of favourable alliances to counter an enemy country, for example, to strengthen Chinese influence in South Asia, it will ally with smaller countries to nullify India’s influence and if possible teach India a lesson if it gets into a fight with China. Thus, demonstrating to other countries the cost they might pay if they confront China.
- China’s first goal is Asian hegemony which they have largely achieved and also filled the vacuum in Central Asia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It has also largely succeeded in keeping the US and the western powers away from Asia.
- China has strengthened its hold over Asia by expanding its influence beyond Central Asia and it has become the largest trading partner of Iran.
- Under the Belt and Road Initiative, China has very ambitious projects including infrastructure projects in Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nepal, Thailand and Myanmar.
- China realises it cannot be a global power unless it develops its maritime strength as all its lines of communication are through seas and they are very vital for trade. Thus, China has to protect these vulnerable lines of communication and take care of the Malacca dilemma which means that China will be more and more active in the seas.
- Geographically, China is a semi landlocked country because it's only access to the sea is the western Pacific which is blocked by the US and its alliances and, therefore, China has this huge issue of somehow pushing back the United States by developing military technologies and claiming virtually the whole of the South China Sea so that it becomes some kind of a “Beijing Lake” as mentioned once by Prime Minister Abe.
- The Chinese navy has expanded immensely over the last decade and has become the largest navy in the world, enlarging its influence from the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean to the Baltic Sea which is not only dangerous for India but also the whole world. This, coupled with the acquisition of ports as part of the Maritime Silk Route, is an extremely threatening trend potentially.
- Baltic countries are in a dilemma at the moment as China has established very close equation with the Baltic countries and convinced them to partner in the Belt and Road Initiative a year and half ago. The Chinese have virtually taken over the operations at the ports of Riga and Latvia informally, which confirms that these countries are comfortable taking Chinese money, quite forgetting that a closer economic relationship with China always leads to military interference in the area.
- China’s White Paper in 2016 outlines that wherever Chinese economic interests are, the PLA will be there in full-strength which they have already demonstrated in the Indian Ocean. The presence of Chinese submarines in anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden is another example of Chinese designs in the region.
- China has designs even up to the Arctic Ocean where it does not want to follow the unofficial rules laid out but wants to make the rules. The Chinese navy would want to follow this route to reach the Baltic sea.
- The challenges in the China-EU relationship lie not in the economy but elsewhere as the bilateral agreement between EU and China on investment, which might be signed soon, shows. It does not cover many other areas of cooperation such as telecommunications, ports, subsidies issue and so on.
- EU-China relations will face challenges on the Human Rights issue, for example, Taiwan, besides on the climate and security issues even though on paper, China and Europe seem to think alike, but there are many outstanding issues when it comes to details.
- 2021 will be a difficult year for Europe to follow a strong China policy as it is still preoccupied with overcoming Covid-19 and the resultant economic crises with big countries like Germany mainly focussed on the upcoming elections. On the other hand, it has been an exceptionally good year for China and thus, Europe and India have to deal with a more confident China.
- China’s predominant rationale for originally establishing the 16+1 (since April 2019, the 17+1) was economic. Over time, however, the format has taken on political and normative aims. This modification has coincided with the shift in China’s strategic vision since Xi Jinping assumed the leadership position in 2012–13.
- Although China is trying to promote the 17+1 as a China-led multilateral forum, the format is, in fact, an umbrella over seventeen bilateral dialogues between China and CEE countries. This means that there is no coordination mechanism to establish common ground on selected international issues and jointly work to address them.
- China portrays the 17+1 formula as a useful political tool for projecting power (including through agenda-setting), promoting its values and norms, and safeguarding its core interests. Via the format, Beijing is trying to create a circle of political friends that are indispensable in the China-led process of reforming the global order.
- Although China’s extensive attempts in offering CEE countries various enticements have produced few tangible results, the 17+1 still serves as a useful political mechanism for China that might be activated and deactivated (or toned down) when China decides to do so, depending on its current political interests.
- China’s interest in CEE countries also shows that the PRC has already become a significant political player in the region. Even if economic cooperation is not yet substantial and the 17+1 as such is not a successful format, the fact that the EU (as well as the United States) is very critical of the format and sees China as attempting to divide Europe proves that perception matters. China is aware of this criticism, as well as the recent shift in its perception within the seventeen countries.
- When it comes to Eastern and Central Europe, many governments in these countries deliberately play into the hands of China, which also largely depends on whether the country is an EU member or not, as EU members need to follow certain rules. The other factor is the willingness of the country’s government to lean towards China, for example, Hungary’s government is extremely friendly towards China.
- In many cases, Hungarian public administration agencies follow policies that are favourable to Chinese nationals, companies, and investors, even if their activities may affect some Hungarian stakeholders adversely as Orbán’s Fidesz party welcomes Chinese investments in Hungary.
- Not only does Orbán’s government not stand up to Beijing’s human rights violations and persecution of ethnic and religious minorities in China, but it also actively blocks multilateral mechanisms that would do so.
- Countries in Europe and Asia cannot deny the fact that China is, and will remain, a dynamically growing market, a driver of the global economy and a key sales and procurement market. However, European and Asian countries close their eyes at their own risk if they ignore the geopolitical and geostrategic rise of China which is anything but of a peaceful intent despite the fake rhetoric of “Community with shared future for mankind”!