Key Takeaways:
- Cross-Strait relations today are in a state of flux and under severe stress. We have witnessed a marked shift in Taiwan away from China in recent years. Earlier, economic integration with China gave hope in the mainland that Taiwan will be gradually absorbed in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). However, what has happened is that an overwhelming majority of people in Taiwan have come to see themselves as Taiwanese rather than Chinese and with the passage of time, the sense of Taiwanese identity is getting stronger and more pronounced. This has been accompanied by China adopting an increasingly hardline posture vis-à-vis Taiwan.
- The turning point was the coming to power of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the January 2016 presidential elections. Tsai Ing-wen’s re-election as President in January 2020 aggravated Cross-Strait tensions. China has put pressure on Taiwan on several fronts and reduced the international space available to it. China has also stepped up military pressure through enhanced naval and aerial activities in Taiwanese strait particularly since last year. Developments in Hong Kong have further added to Cross-Strait strains as the “One Country, Two Systems” arrangement has virtually collapsed in Hong Kong. The prospect of that model offering a solution to the Taiwan question has further receded.
- The United States (US) and its allies have enhanced their engagement with Taiwan eliciting sharp complaints from China. Taiwan has become an even bigger factor in US- China strategic rivalry and regional dynamics. More recently, after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Chinese media has questioned the credibility of its commitment to Taiwan. However, Taiwan remains the most sensitive flashpoint in US-China relations today.
- In parallel, there is greater urgency in the Chinese rhetoric on the unification of Taiwan, though no timeline has been given for the achievement of its objective. In his speech on the 1st of July to mark the centenary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Xi Jinping reiterated that resolving the Taiwan question and realizing China’s complete reunification is a historic mission.
- The impact and consequences of Cross-Strait relations will not only affect the region and neighboring countries, rather they will have far larger ramifications that will carry ripple effects throughout the entire world. The worst-case scenario for any of our liberal states is China trying to seize Taiwan by means of force which has recently become more and more plausible as Xi Jinping’s strident and stark warnings to the world during his speech on the centenary of the CCP’s founding have made abundantly clear. The times when China respected the international rules-based order are now well and truly passé. CCP’s incursions in the South China Sea, East China Sea, India and Bhutan, and along with myriad other instances are all cases to this point.
- China has significantly increased military pressure on Taiwan during the Coronavirus pandemic, as evidenced by several aggressive military maneuvers towards Taiwan. It appears as if the CCP is slowly moving towards a point of no return by invading Taiwan and apart from verbal condemnations so far, nations have done little to stop these repeated provocations aimed at the island nation. In lieu of the grave danger to Taiwanese democracy, recognition of Taiwan as a sovereign and independent nation by several Western and Asian democratic nations seems to be reaching an imperative level to deter China from such an invasion. But this might achieve the opposite result.
- Taiwan is recognized by just 14 out of 193 United Nation (UN) countries as a result of China’s constant economic and military threats to all nations’ recognizing Taiwan’s independence. But long gone are the times when we tiptoed around Chinese sensitivities due to fear of a Chinese economic backlash. In a situation where our intrinsic democratic values are under attack, undoubtedly recognizing Taiwan’s independence will be perceived as aggression by the CCP and could lead to a further escalation of cross-strait tensions.
- Xi Jinping has followed his predecessor Hu Jintao’s policy in dealing with Taiwan. While the Kuomintang was in power, China pursued positive inducements. However, after the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) came to power in 2016, China has increased its military coercion along with diplomatic and economic coercion. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) crossed the centre line indicating Beijing’s heavy-handedness in dealing with Taiwan. Beijing has also tried to punish Taiwan for buying military equipment from the US.
- Support for independence has increased in recent years in Taiwan and relations with Beijing will remain fraught even if the Kuomintang comes to power. However, it is highly unlikely that Beijing will initiate military action to retake Taiwan unless Taiwan declares de jure independence. There are two key reasons for this: the risk of failure (this factor is intrinsically tied with the legitimacy of the CCP and the threat of wider military ramifications with the United States.
- The military withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan has caused disquiet in Taiwan but it was noted that Taiwan is not Afghanistan. Taiwan has a thriving democracy and not only that, the nature of the Taiwan-US relationship is different.
- The preservation of peace and stability is important and like-minded nations should make a greater effort in engaging with Taiwan. Taiwan’s importance will increase in the context of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) - a few weeks ago, senior officials discussed peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait during their virtual meeting.
- India should focus on expanding collaboration with Taiwan in areas of mutual interests. In this regard, the Global Cooperation Training Framework (GCTF) is a case in point. India should join this framework which was established in 2015 by Taiwan and US; the GCTF is a very important mechanism to bring Taiwan into the international domain.
- Since 2016, the current Taiwanese administration is practicing the South Bound Policy which aims to increase cooperation with regional countries in various domains. The main idea is to achieve people-centered development. This policy has slowly become a vital part of Taiwan’s foreign policy and its implementation has been carried out through institutionalization of bilateral and multilateral cooperation.
- Taiwan has performed quite well against the Covid-19 pandemic. The administration has worked hard to vaccinate its people and has also taken initiatives to produce vaccines locally. Certain countries such as Indonesia have expressed an intent to diversify their vaccine import and Taiwan has emerged as a viable alternative.
- Taiwan has institutional collaborations with the US, Japan and Australia. In the future, Taiwan should strive to work with India, particularly in the domain of Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR).
- India-Taiwan relations are guided by different motivations and this set of relations will take its own course. India’s One China policy with regards to Taiwan is vague and open-ended. It is interesting to note that support for Taiwan has increased among India’s masses.
- India should support Taiwan’s inclusion in the Indo-Pacific construct due to three key reasons- first, India has called for a free, open and inclusive order in the Indo-Pacific and Taiwan’s participation would not only promote stability but also aid India’s vision of a rules-based order; second, if more nations engage with Taiwan then this could itself serve as a deterrent to China; and third, India has emerged as an important player in the region and it is vital that India shed its cautious approach and engage with Taiwan.
- India should also realize that sacrificing relations with Taiwan to resolve the India-China boundary dispute is not tenable.
- India should adopt a three-pronged approach in engaging with Taiwan: first, at the bilateral level, there are several areas where the two countries could potentially collaborate such as education, information technology, science, et cetera; second, at the regional level, India should take cues from Singapore and Japan on how to engage with Taiwan, particularly in connectivity and infrastructure; third, at the multilateral level, the GCTF can serve as an important mechanism. Also, there is a need to bring in Taiwan into the evolving Indo-Pacific construct; greater institutionalization of the Quad will bring in Taiwan as a key player.