KEY TAKE-AWAYS:
(a) The latest IPCC Sixth Assessment Report underscores that the average global temperature has already risen by 1.1 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. Even in the most optimistic scenario, where carbon emissions are completely eliminated, a projected temperature increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius is anticipated by 2030. This means that we are likely to cross the threshold of temperature that humans are willing to endure, and we currently lack the necessary infrastructure to adequately address the challenges posed by such warming.
(b) This rate of temperature rise is unparalleled and exceeds any observed over the past 2000 years. Furthermore, current carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the atmosphere are at their highest levels in the past 2 million years. The fundamental problem lies in the generation of heat. Currently, we are adding energy to the Earth's system at a rate equivalent to the detonation of 42 atomic bombs of the scale used in Hiroshima and Nagasaki every second.
(c) One of the profound impacts of climate change is sea level rise, a slow-onset phenomenon characterized by a gradual increase in sea levels, currently occurring at a rate of approximately 0.2mm per year. Over a decade, this translates to a 2mm rise. However, the persistence of such sea level rise over decades and centuries poses a significant threat to many coastal cities, impacting both their security and livelihoods. Consequently, climate change can give rise to problems with inherent security implications.
(d) Over the past 50 years, the cumulative impact of weather and climate change has resulted in daily economic losses amounting to 2 million US dollars. More than 3,000 disasters were reported in the last decades, leading to the loss of over one million lives and causing approximately 2 trillion US dollars in economic damages. Asia bears a significant burden, accounting for one-third of all globally reported water-related diseases, nearly half of all associated fatalities, and one-third of the associated economic losses. Among these disasters, 45% were attributed to floods, and 36% to storms, with storms accounting for 72% of livestock losses, while floods led to 52% of economic losses. Importantly, it should be noted that economic losses from weather events in low-income countries often remain
uninsured.
(e) Oceans absorb more than 90% of the excess heat generated by this CO2 increase, serving as the largest carbon sink and playing a crucial role in regulating the Earth’s temperature. Nonetheless, the warming of the atmosphere also warms the oceans, causing a decrease in pH levels and leading to ocean acidification, which affects their ability to regulate climate. The warming of ocean temperatures carries the potential for an increased release of CO2 from the ocean, initiating a positive feedback loop within the Earth's climate system.
(f) The consequences of ocean warming encompass various impacts, such as hypoxia, which involves the depletion of oxygen in oceanic regions. This phenomenon can result in the displacement of fish populations and other significant effects on a global scale. Given that fish serves as a critical source of protein for the human population, the projected global population of 9 billion people within the next 50 years raises concerns about meeting food demands, especially considering land shortages and other limitations. This situation could potentially drive engagement in Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) fishing and contribute to conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region.
(g) Climate-induced threats, including super cyclones, sea-level rise, and flooding, compel individuals and communities to seek new opportunities and lands. These environmental changes render their existing homes increasingly uninhabitable, primarily due to factors such as coastal inundation and salinisation. The migration process is often intertwined with a complex web of economic, social, and demographic factors. Despite the escalating vulnerabilities faced by coastal communities, there exists a lack of consensus on how to effectively address climate-induced displacements in this region.
(h) One significant effect is the increased stratification of the ocean, which hinders the mixing of nutrients across various layers. This disruption causes the death or horizontal movement of vital marine organisms such as fish, phytoplankton, and zooplankton, ultimately disturbing the ocean's delicate food chain. For example, regions like Kerala and Tamil Nadu are experiencing difficulties in capturing substantial quantities of mackerel, placing added stress on the fishing community. The resulting pressures on livelihoods can, in turn, contribute to heightened crime rates in affected areas.
(i) The significant locust swarm that struck the Horn of Africa in the spring of 2020, followed by its impact on India and Pakistan in May of the same year, stands out as a noteworthy event. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), a significant portion of the locust movement was propelled by strong westerly winds triggered by Cyclone Amphan in the Bay of Bengal. Cyclone Amphan made landfall in India and Bangladesh on May 20, causing the loss of at least 90 lives and resulting in over USD13.2 billion in damages. These voracious locust swarms voraciously devoured substantial agricultural yields, leading to decreased protein production and imposing additional burdens on the fishing community, exacerbating the impact on vulnerable communities.
(j) India’s vulnerability to sea level rise is a matter of grave concern, as it holds the unenviable position of being ranked first in terms of vulnerability in this regard. This vulnerability extends to a substantial portion of its population, with over 30 million individuals exposed to the imminent threat of rising sea levels. This disconcerting vulnerability is not unique to India alone; it is a shared predicament among several countries in the global South. Prominent examples include Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines, and others.
(k) Changes in the Arctic have profound global ramifications. The reduction of Arctic ice not only accelerates global warming but also disrupts polar jet streams, potentially leading to extreme winters in specific regions. In addition, the thawing of permafrost in the Arctic has the potential to release dormant viruses and bacteria, thereby posing health risks to coastal communities. Moreover, these changing climatic patterns, coupled with the emergence of new diseases, can overwhelm nations, drive increased migration, and have adverse effects on human security.
(l) Climate change affects maritime crime by influencing economic activity, governance, and the welfare of affected populations. It can lead to the proliferation of illicit activities like illegal fishing, smuggling, and piracy, which, in turn, challenge ocean governance and maritime order. Climate change also indirectly impacts criminal behaviour by creating vulnerable populations susceptible to luring by criminal elements offering survival opportunities. These survival crimes may evolve into more organized and extremist activities.
(m) In 2022, India faced a substantial number of weather-related disasters, as reported by the Disaster Management Division of the Meteorological Department. According to their data, out of 365 days in the year, India experienced extreme weather events on 314 days. This stark reality underscores the fact that we are currently witnessing the impacts of climate change at an unprecedented rate. If corrective action is not taken promptly, the situation is likely to worsen even further.
(n) Current global climate finance reveals a stark inadequacy, with only USD 600 billion allocated from 2011-2020, compared to the massive USD 1540 trillion in global assets. A significant portion, roughly 75-80%, prioritises mitigation, leaving less than 10% for adaptation, primarily in the form of debt, which becomes a financial burden for countries. This funding imbalance is notable, with substantial private sector contributions in the global north and governments in the global south bearing the primary responsibility.
(o) In India’s context, climate spending falls significantly short at 110,000 INR Crores compared to the required 1,100,000 INR Crores. The majority of this funding comes from domestic sources and government initiatives, with a stronger emphasis on mitigation over adaptation. While private sector investment is increasing, it remains inadequate in terms of scale and speed, particularly for adaptation and resilience finance. Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and other developing nations encounter difficulties in accessing funds tailored to their specific needs, resulting in limited opportunities.
(p) A concerning fact is that 10% of the global population is projected to face increasingly frequent inundation events and may eventually find themselves permanently flooded by 2050. Additionally, the rise in sea levels, coupled with storm surges, tides, droughts, and water management practices like groundwater extraction, as well as various connectivity factors such as creeks and canals, collectively contribute to salinization. This, in turn, leads to coastal forest loss and the displacement of species, as salt-tolerant invasive species thrive and degrade habitats. It's worth noting that the salinity levels worldwide have already exceeded 30.4%, and as temperatures are expected to rise by 2 degrees Celsius, both salinity and distribution patterns are likely to be further affected.
(q) The United Nations Secretary-General has unequivocally characterised climate change as a threat multiplier with the potential to exacerbate situations leading to conflicts. However, the establishment of a direct causal relationship between climate change and national security remains a subject of ongoing investigation. Since 2007, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has engaged in discussions related to climate change on eight separate occasions, with the most recent major debate occurring in 2021. India and South Africa have adopted a staunch position against the securitization of climate change. It has been argued that the UNSC may not be the most appropriate platform for addressing climate change, as attributing climate change as a sole cause of conflict oversimplifies the
multifaceted nature of such conflicts and may hinder effective resolution efforts.
(r) The Paris School strongly advocates for the seamless integration of climate considerations into security and defence strategies. Its primary goal is to ensure that security forces are thoroughly prepared to address climate-related crises, adapt to shifting environmental conditions, and actively contribute to climate mitigation efforts. This approach represents a collaborative effort between security and climate experts, fostering a synergistic movement known as the “climatization of security”. In this context, countries like India and other nations in the Global South are encouraged to promote and adopt the principles of the Paris School. This approach emphasises the importance of integrating climate considerations into security planning, offering a more holistic and cooperative perspective as opposed to the securitisation of climate change often advocated by the Global North.
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS:
(a) To enhance coastal resilience effectively, a spectrum of proactive measures must be implemented. Enhancing climate modelling accuracy and precision, as well as establishing robust data sources, stands as a critical imperative. This endeavour necessitates substantial investments in the collection and maintenance of accurate, up-to-date climate data, encompassing vital variables such as temperature, precipitation, sea-level rise, and extreme weather events. Furthermore, it is paramount to continually validate the assumptions embedded within climate models. These validations should encompass factors like greenhouse gas emissions and land-use changes, ensuring that the models remain in alignment with empirical data and real-world conditions. Additionally, addressing biases in model weightage is essential to mitigate potential inaccuracies in climate projections, warranting that models receive weightings commensurate with their demonstrated reliability. Furthermore, the development of advanced techniques to rectify errors related to cloudrelated data within climate models is indispensable, ultimately enhancing the overall precision and dependability of these models.
(b) Addressing the intricate nexus between climate change and criminality necessitates a comprehensive, multidimensional approach. In the context of developing countries, a primary focus should be placed on the implementation of adaptive measures aimed at mitigating the impact of climate change on societal behaviour. This includes bolstering law enforcement capacity to respond effectively to climate-driven criminal activities. Moreover, it is imperative to formulate and implement strategies designed to reduce both the frequency and severity of climate-related hazardous events, ranging from floods and droughts to extreme weather phenomena. Investing in resilience-building measures against climateinduced criminal activity becomes paramount, encompassing the implementation of mitigative policies, the development of climate-resilient infrastructure, and a steadfast adherence to a rules-based order that holds climate defaulters accountable, irrespective of
nationality. These effective measures collectively contribute to the mitigation of climate change's impact on criminal behaviour while concurrently fostering a more secure and sustainable future.
(c) Encouraging the widespread adoption of the “climatization of security” approach is a crucial step in preparing security forces to effectively respond to climate-related crises, adapt to changing environmental conditions, and actively engage in climate mitigation efforts. This approach emphasises the need to integrate climate considerations into the core of security planning, fostering a more resilient and adaptable security framework. By embracing the climatization of security approach, countries, particularly those in the global south, can formulate more effective, inclusive, and forward-thinking strategies. These strategies are designed to address the diverse security challenges posed by climate change comprehensively. It enables security forces and policymakers to better understand and
navigate the multifaceted nature of climate change challenges. Ultimately, the adoption of the climatization of security approach contributes to enhanced resilience and preparedness in the face of climate-related crises.
(d) Within the realm of international climate agreements, it is essential to uphold the principles of common but differentiated responsibility and equity. These principles serve as the foundation for ensuring that responsibilities for climate action are distributed fairly among nations. Common but differentiated responsibility acknowledges that while all nations share the responsibility to combat climate change, they do so to varying degrees based on historical contributions to greenhouse gas emissions and their respective capabilities. Equity further emphasises the need for fairness in distributing the burdens and benefits of climate action. By adhering to these principles, international climate agreements can promote a more equitable and just approach to addressing climate change on a global scale.
(e) Collaborative initiatives such as the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) play a vital role in actively promoting the construction of resilient infrastructure, with a particular focus on vulnerable regions like Small Island Developing States (SIDS) within the Indo-Pacific region. These initiatives facilitate cooperation among nations and stakeholders to address the pressing challenges posed by climate change and its impact on infrastructure. The CDRI serves as an exemplary model of such collaborative efforts, actively engaging in the development of infrastructure that can withstand the adverse effects of climate-related disasters. This is especially critical for regions like SIDS in the Indo-Pacific, which are particularly susceptible to climate-induced vulnerabilities, including rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and coastal inundation. By fostering international partnerships and pooling resources, initiatives like the CDRI aim to enhance the resilience of infrastructure in vulnerable regions. They contribute to the overarching goal of mitigating the impact of the climate crisis and ensuring the sustainable development and security of these areas. In this context, the CDRI’s work serves as a significant step towards building a more climateresilient future for regions facing disproportionate climate-related challenges.
(f) Implementing measures to enhance the resilience of vulnerable communities is equally crucial. This involves the development of climate-resilient infrastructure, including stormresistant housing and robust flood protection systems. Additionally, it should encompass the adoption of ecosystem-based adaptation approaches that harness the inherent resilience of natural systems. These strategies not only bolster the ability of communities to withstand climate-related challenges but also contribute to the long-term sustainability of their environments. By combining knowledge empowerment with resilience-building initiatives, vulnerable communities can better navigate the complex landscape of climate change and work towards a more secure and sustainable future.
(g) In addressing climate-related challenges, a robust climate funding is imperative. This approach involves mobilising capital, enhancing oversight mechanisms, adopting transparent standards, and effectively integrating climate risks into decision-making processes. It also emphasises the importance of reducing risks associated with climate-related impacts, incentivising private finance, and fostering strategic partnerships. These steps collectively pave the way for a more resilient and sustainable response to the growing threats posed by climate change. (h) Policymakers and stakeholders in the maritime sector must acknowledge the need to incorporate climate considerations into infrastructure planning and financing. This proactive stance not only safeguards critical maritime infrastructure but also contributes to the overall resilience and longevity of maritime operations in the face of an increasingly volatile climate. By aligning financial strategies with climate objectives, the maritime sector can better navigate the challenges ahead and ensure a secure and sustainable future.
(i) The shift of navies from their core military functions to secondary roles, such as diplomatic and constabulary functions, is stretching naval assets. To address these challenges effectively, a series of mitigating measures must be adopted. These measures include substantial investments in resilient infrastructure, the implementation of advanced technology for early warning systems, fostering international collaboration among nations, and promoting sustainable practices in maritime activities. Furthermore, the integration of climate change considerations into all aspects of naval planning, development, and operations is of utmost urgency. This necessity arises from the tangible adverse impacts that climate-related events have on the execution of naval tasks and underscores the critical need for comprehensive action in this regard.
(j) Addressing the complex issue of climate-induced migration necessitates a collaborative approach involving multiple stakeholders. This includes governments, non-governmental organisations, and representatives of affected communities. To facilitate effective communication and coordination in this endeavour, achieving clarity in terminology and definitions related to climate-induced migration is of paramount importance. Establishing a common understanding of key terms, concepts and mechanisms and legal framework will enhance the precision and effectiveness of strategies aimed at addressing this pressing global challenge.
(k) The recognition that disasters stemming from climate-related challenges transcend administrative and political boundaries highlights the imperative of addressing humanitarian crises through collaborative and sustainable means, especially for vulnerable communities. These communities grapple with resource constraints and lack of capacities, underscoring the critical need for a well-established mechanism to support their adaptation efforts. Mobilising financial resources is pivotal in this endeavour, encompassing various avenues such as grants, loans, and funding from international organisations. Central to this initiative is the mobilisation of financial resources, which can be sourced through various channels including grants, loans, and funding from international organisations. Ensuring the accessibility of these funds to the affected communities is of paramount importance, as it empowers them to enhance their capacity for effective adaptation and response to climate-related challenges.
(l) It is imperative to recognise the profound concerns posed by coastal inundation and salinization, as they have the potential to significantly impact nations’ progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and can also affect maritime baselines. Recognising and addressing these challenges is not only essential for sustainable development but also for safeguarding maritime rights and boundaries, ensuring the resilience of coastal communities, and fostering international cooperation to mitigate the impacts of climate change on coastal regions.
