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IMAGO / Ardan Fuessmann

Monitor Election and Social Research

Analysis of the parliamentary election in Thuringia on 1 September 2024

Report on the preliminary final result, the main voting determinants, voter migration and social structure

The AfD becomes the strongest party in a state election for the first time. The election analysis explains the result in comparison to the pre-election, voter migration and the main reasons for the election result. Based on the election day polls and surveys in the run-up to the election, the significance of the assessments of the leading candidates, party competences and the assessment of the government's performance for the election result are explained.

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The elections in Thuringia and Saxony continue the trend of the European elections: losses for the “traffic light parties” with continuing high levels of dissatisfaction with the federal government, strengthening of the political fringes and extensive stagnation for the CDU. In Thuringia, the Left Party's split and decline in importance was cushioned by the reputation of Minister President Bodo Ramelow. 

The AfD became the strongest party in a federal state for the first time. Two trends have been stable among AfD supporters for some time: a low willingness to change parties and an immunisation towards political communication beyond the AfD. AfD and BSW supporters are united in their dissatisfaction, with AfD supporters being even more dissatisfied than BSW supporters. And dissatisfaction is not limited to the political sphere. Life satisfaction, satisfaction with democracy and trust in other people are low in both groups of supporters. The result reflects the increasing polarisation of society.

The election analysis for the Thuringia state election can be found here in German.

All graphs and tables on which the election analysis is based can be found in the appendix.

 

Please note, to date the study is only available in German.

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Contact

Dr. Viola Neu

Dr

Deputy Head of Division Analysis and Consulting,
Head of Department Electoral and Social Research

Viola.Neu@kas.de +49 30 26996-3506
Contact

Dr. Sabine Pokorny

Dr

Electoral and Social Research

sabine.pokorny@kas.de +49 30 26996-3544

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About this series

The publications of the Election and Social Research Monitor are part of our Monitor publication series. The Monitor series deals with one main topic at a time from the perspective of KAS experts and places it in the political and social context on the basis of a few key points.