What Will Become of Globalisation?

What Will Become of Globalisation?

• Editorial

  The World Trade Organisation is sounding the alarm bells over it, as is the International Monetary Fund. The World Economic Forum is even asking whether it will spell the end for economic development among some sections of the global population. They are talking about geoeconomic fragmentation, in other words, the realignment of international trade flows along political blocs, thus the end of globalisation – at least as we have known it over recent decades, where economic efficiency was the key criterion for the alignment of goods and financial flows.

  by Gerhard Wahlers

• Searching for the ­Right Dose

  On the Role of State Intervention in Times of Geoeconomic Competition

  For Germany and Europe, the geopolitical environment has deteriorated massively. Our foreign trade policy cannot ignore this fact. That is why the term “de-risking” is on everyone’s lips. The demand on the state to intervene in economic ­relations if necessary to protect its own security is increasing. That is quite right, as long as we realise two things: more is not necessarily better. And even the best de-risking instruments are of little help without your own competitiveness.

  by Gunter Rieck Moncayo

• Not Replacing, but ­Complementing

  The Emerging ASEAN Countries as Partners in De-risking China

  Germany and Europe have to reduce their economic ­dependence on China. In this context, the emerging ­economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) afford potential for diversification. Yet, if this potential is to be exploited, the European Union has one particularly urgent task. Free trade negotiations with the emerging countries of Southeast Asia are currently ­overloaded with non-trade demands; the EU must return the focus to the core issues and bring talks to a swift conclusion.

  by Denis Suarsana

• Out of the Ashes

  How Mexico Benefits from Global Trade ­Conflicts – and What This Means for Germany

  When North America is mentioned in Germany, many think of the US, and maybe of Canada. But the fact is that Mexico is also an integral part of the region, economically as well as geographically, and thus perhaps benefits more than any other country from the “trade war” between the US and China. German companies have taken notice, and German politics should quickly follow suit.

  by Hans-Hartwig Blomeier, Maximilian Strobel

• From Conflict to Connectivity

  On the “Silk Road” of the Gulf States

  With ambitious infrastructure projects, the Gulf states are establishing themselves as a central bridge for trade flows between East and West. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in particular seek to exploit their strategic ­position between the continents of Africa, Asia and Europe to make the leap into the post-oil economic era. But not only economic hurdles stand in the way – regional conflicts and geopolitical rivalries threaten to throttle the “Silk Road” of the Gulf.

  by Philipp Dienstbier, Nicolas Reeves

• Trade Without Boundaries?

  The Rocky Road to a Pan-African Market

  The African Free Trade Agreement has the potential to lead the African continent into a positive economic future. More than 1.2 billion people would be affected, and 54 countries have signed the agreement since 2018. However, numerous challenges prevent rapid implementation. Where is African free trade heading?

  by Lukas Kupfernagel