Publications

New Iron Curtain rising on the EU border with Belarus

"New EU-sanctions package against Belarus might backfire"

After introducing the latest EU sanctions package against the Republic of Belarus, the Baltic States Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania imposed an entrance ban for almost all passenger cars with Belarusian license plates. Belarusian cars currently present in these countries were given limited time to either leave or reregister locally. Aimed at closing loopholes in the sanctions which were introduced to punish the regimes in Minsk and Moscow for their aggressive behaviour and to strengthen border security at NATO’s eastern flank, the passenger car ban sparked strong negative reactions, also from the democratic community of Belarus. They warn that shutting the EU’s door for regular citizens, most of whom voted for Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya in 2020, will only further alienate the Belarusian population from the West. As trade with the Lukashenka regime continues, his propaganda machine will know how to use the “travel ban” to strengthen the pro-Russian narrative claiming that “nobody in the West wants you Belarusians”.

EU sanctions against the regime in Minsk

In recent years, the relevance of the topic of sanctions policy towards the regime in Belarus has grown continuously.  The Western community keeps adopting new packages in response to the regime’s political repressions, its participation in Russia’s war on Ukraine and threats to regional security, and there are no signs that sanctions might soon be eased or lifted. This policy brief, compiled by Belarusian experts from various professional fields, aims to provide readers with a wide range of information and analysis on the inner rationale and effects of Western sanctions on regime in Belarus. The paper presents not only the chronology of sanctions but seeks to point out the correlation of goals and results, as well as the effects in different spheres and on separate groups of actors. The goal is to provide decision makers and the interested public with a "big picture" view on the sanctions’ environment, hoping to inform adequate and effective decisions in this field.

Political system in Belarus

One nation – two new representative bodies?

In spring 2024, Belarusians had the “pleasure” of renewing two political bodies, both of which claim to represent the people, albeit in diametrically opposed ways: The All-Belarusian People's Assembly, appointed by Lukashenka, is intended to be the new super-authority to ensure his personal rule and the continuation of the authoritarian system, while at the same time fulfilling a demand by Vladimir Putin for internal reforms in Belarus. Staffed by 1,200 loyalists, it is also an artificial image of an “ideal society” in the eyes of the ruler, which excludes political opponents, i.e. most of the electorate, from participation. The democratic forces in exile, on the other hand, held what was probably the first Belarusian democratic election since 1994 with the elections to the Coordination Council. Technically successful, they hardly managed to arouse greater interest among the population, as the mandate, function, and potential for action of the “proto parliament” remains unclear. This report analyses how both work, how they came about and how they fit into the current political situation in and around Belarus.

Elections as a “special operation”

With Lukashenka’s “single voting day” only a coup by the democratic forces is surprising

On February 25, 2024, the “single voting day” for the national parliament and local councils took place in Belarus. This was likely the least free election in the history of the nation. Politically sterile, with no opposition on the ballot or in the election commissions, Lukashenka is ushering in a process that the democratic opposition calls a “special operation.” Strictly guarded by a massive contingent of his repressive apparatus, the system is now to be restructured in the spring with a new super-committee in order to secure his authoritarian rule and personal power. From his point of view, the people are above all a threat following the peaceful pro-democratic mass protests of 2020. An action led by democratic forces produced a surprise on the eve of “Election Day.”

The Human Rights Situation in Belarus on the Eve of the “Single Voting Day”

The repressive system in Belarus today is no less brutal than in Putin's Russia

Just days after the breaking news of Alexei Navalny's death made global headlines, Belarusian independent media reported another tragedy that is similar in character but will likely cause much less attention. The political prisoner Ihar Lednik died in a hospital in Minsk after he had been incarcerated despite a known heart condition. He had been accused of “slandering Lukashenka” in a publication that demanded the dissolution of the Union State with Russia. This underlines yet again that the repressive system in today’s Belarus is not less brutal than in Putin’s Russia. Since 2020, at least five political prisoners have died in Belarus, four of them within the last nine months. Since last spring, at least six political prisoners, among them the most prominent leaders of the 2020 democratic protest, have “disappeared”. Former inmates and relatives describe the conditions in the penal colonies as “creeping death” and the UN sees signs of “crimes against humanity”. Since the repressions aim to secure Lukashenka’s rule beyond “elections”, this report is to give an overview of the human rights situation in Belarus on the eve of the “single voting day” on February 25, 2024.

Thoroughly European

Belarus is Currently Dependent on Moscow – but the ­Democratic Opposition Wants to Lead the Country towards the West

The Lukashenko regime is tying Belarus ever closer to Russia, but the democratic forces seek an orientation towards the West – and are even talking about joining the EU. Although that sounds utopian at the moment, in the long term an alignment of the country with the European Union would be in our interests, too. For this reason, we need a mental “eastward enlargement” – and Belarus is surprisingly European in many respects.

The Wagner Group in Belarus

Possible scenarios based on their previous activities worldwide

The alarming reports about the relocation of the private military company (PMU) Wagner to Belarus after the aborted "March on Moscow" raise a number of questions with regard to national and regional security: Will the Wagner Group act as a political actor in Belarus? Which "instruments" from previous missions in other parts of the world could it bring to bear? And what danger is there for Ukraine and NATO countries if Lukashenka openly fantasises about "excursions" to Poland by his new guests?

New friends in the "eastern vector"

Upheaval in the foreign policy of Belarus

For decades, the foreign policy of the Republic of Belarus resembled a pendulum game between East and West. But following the crackdown on the peaceful protests in 2020, the "Ryanair incident" and the artificial migration crisis, the regime isolated itself from the West. Lukashenka's complicity in Russia's war of aggression also severed traditionally important ties with Ukraine. In the shadow of Moscow's crushing dominance, Minsk has recently made efforts to deepen its relations with countries of Central Asia, China and Iran. It remains to be seen how Lukashenka's "mediation" in the Wagner uprising will affect his foreign policy leeway.

Places of Memory: a European Perspective on Overcoming Past Trauma

Joint publication of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Belarus and the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies.

Communist and Soviet Historical and Cultural Heritage of Eastern Europe in the 21st Century

Joint publication of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Belarus and the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies.