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Short political reports of the KAS offices abroad

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IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

Presidential elections in Venezuela

Anything is possible

Presidential elections will be held in Venezuela on July 28, 2024. The country with the world's largest oil reserves has been in an economic and humanitarian crisis for years. President Nicolás Maduro is running for a third consecutive term in office. Edmundo González, a former diplomat who was hardly known until three months ago, is running as the candidate of the Democratic Unity Platform (Plataforma Unitaria Democrática, PUD) - the majority bloc within the opposition. His candidacy is supported by María Corina Machado, leader of the liberal party Vente Venezuela, who clearly won the opposition primaries in October 2023. However, her candidacy was not approved. While the opposition is demanding fair conditions for the elections as it is returning to the polls under difficult conditions, the government is demanding the lifting of international economic and financial sanctions. Negotiations have been resumed since the beginning of July. “Uncertainty” is a term that can be heard everywhere. Anything seems possible. In its pastoral letter of July 11, the Venezuelan Bishops' Conference calls on the electorate to participate and the institutions to take responsibility.

Annette Schwarzbauer
July 17, 2024
Country Reports
IMAGO / Petr Stojanovski

Presidential and parliamentary elections in North Macedonia: victory for the opposition VMRO-DPMNE

VMRO-DPMNE returns to government after seven years

This may in the Republic of North Macedonia presidential- and parliamentary elections took place. The EPP-party VMRO-DPMNE could celebrate an outstanding victory in both elections. The president of VMRO-DPMNE Hristijan Mickoski becomes new primeminister and Gordana Siljanovska Davkova was elected as first woman as president of the country. The main topics of the elections were the dysfunctionality of the state, corruption and the dramatic situation in the healthcare and education system. The EU accession was not an important topic during the electoral campaigns. The ruling social democrats suffered a devastating defeat. The future government will be coalition of VMRO-DPMNE, Albania opposition alliance and the small party ZNAM of former social democrats. The new government will face a lot of challenges in the country but also on international level. The unsolved identity issues with Bulgaria and new discussions about the Prespes-agreement may continue to obstacle the path towards EU. The new government has to act wisely and less emotionally. Indeed at the moment there are more opposite moves. Domestically the new government will focus on economic development and attract foreign investments.

Daniel Braun
July 12, 2024
Country Reports
KAS RP Parteiendialog und Demokratie in LA

Primaries in Uruguay

Starting signal for the hot election campaign phase

The primaries on June 30 marked the beginning of an intense campaign season leading up to the parliamentary and presidential elections in Uruguay this autumn. As anticipated, Alvaro Delgado secured a decisive victory in the Partido Nacional. However, the unexpected selection of Valeria Ripoll as his running mate sparked considerable discontent within the party. Meanwhile, the Partido Colorado witnessed a generational shift with the election of Andrés Ojeda. Although, the opposition left-wing Frente Amplio has started strongly with a united front, early signs of fractures are already apparent. The race in October promises to be thrilling.

Jonathan Neu, Sebastian Grundberger
July 10, 2024
Country Reports
CANVA Ai Image Generator / Elias Marini-Schäfer

End of Hindu nationalism or return of caste politics?

Lessons from the Indian parliamentary elections

In the wake of the Indian parliamentary elections, a number of German media outlets saw the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) loss of its parliamentary majority as a victory for democracy and a sign of the Indian population's resistance to Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalism. Headlines included slogans such as: "India decides against Hindu nationalism and authoritarian tendencies” and “Democracy won instead of Modi”. But did the voters really turn against the Hindutva ideology of the BJP? Has the BJP overplayed its Hindu nationalist card? This article attempts to find answers to these questions and explain why the general election result was much more than a vote against Hindutva and perceived authoritarian tendencies.

Elias Marini Schäfer
July 9, 2024
Country Reports
i.Law TH

Thailand's Quest for Democracy and the Rule of Law

Trials and setbacks since the formation of the government in 2023

After a decade under a military junta (2014-2019) and a military-dominated government (2019-2023), Thailand held a successful general election in May 2023. The results signaled a rejection of pro-military and conservative factions. The Pheu Thai Party (PTP), which came second in the election, formed a coalition government with eleven other parties, including conservative and military-aligned factions such as the United Thai Nation (UTN) led by former Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, who had ousted a PTP government in the 2014 coup. Meanwhile, the election winner, the progressive and reform-oriented Move Forward Party (MFP), remains in opposition despite winning 14 million out of around 39 million votes nationwide, making it the largest faction in the National Assembly with 151 MPs. Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin and his ministers have emphasized Thailand’s commitment to democratic principles. However, in its annual report on political rights and civil liberties published in March 2024, Freedom House rated Thailand as only "partly free", giving the country a score of 36 out of 100.1 This Country Report presents Thailand’s challenges and efforts in pursuing democracy, human rights, and the rule of law since the 2023 government formation.

Dr. Céline-Agathe Caro, Sarita Piyawongrungruang
July 9, 2024
Country Reports
Adobe Stock/ Iryna/ Generiert mit KI

2nd round of elections in France

Republican Front halts shift to the right at the last second

The second round of voting in France ended with a surprise. The right-wing alliance of Rassemblement National (RN) and Les Républicains led by Eric Ciotti (LR) did not achieve an absolute or relative majority, as was expected based on the results of the first round of voting, but only came third. The electoral alliance New Popular Front (Nouveau Front Populaire) won over 180 seats. The second force in the National Assembly will be the presidential alliance of Ensemble. Although this electoral alliance led by Gabriel Attal lost almost 100 MPs, it managed to retain more than 160 MPs thanks to tactical voting by the so-called Republican Front. The Rassemblement National party, which was hoping for an absolute majority and the office of prime minister after the second round of voting, gained 50 seats but ended up with fewer than 150 MPs. President Macron's surprise dissolution of parliament was intended to force a clear majority, but it did not work. No political party has an absolute majority. The next few days will be characterised by negotiations on the appointment of the prime minister and the distribution of key posts in the National Assembly. The euphoria over the less successful performance of the Rassemblement National could soon be followed by disillusionment and could bring unstable times to France

Anja Czymmeck, Nele Katharina Wissmann
July 8, 2024
Country Reports
IMAGO / Cover-Images

The start of a Labour era?

Dramatic defeat of the Tories in parliamentary elections in the United Kingdom

The Conservative Party under the previous Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was the big loser of the election. They lost 251 parliamentary seats, and with a vote share of 24.7%, they will only be represented by 121 seats in the British House of Commons in the future. On the winning side, a clear picture emerged: the Labour Party gained 211 seats and, with a vote share of 33.7%, will form the government with a total of 412 seats. Other winners included the Liberal Democrats, who, with 72 seats and 12.2%, achieved their best result in over 100 years. The right-wing populist Reform UK also made a statement with 14.3% of the vote, although they received only five mandates due to the British first-past-the-post system. The new government under Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces enormous challenges in domestic and foreign policy. The British Conservatives must first deal with a personnel and strategic party reboot in the opposition.

Matthias Barner, Lukas Wick
July 8, 2024
Country Reports
IMAGO / ABACAPRESS

After the European elections in Poland

The EU policy of the Tusk government

The pro-European and liberal Civic Platform party won the European Parliament elections in June 2024. Its biggest competitor, the right-wing conservative Law and Justice party, came second with a result only 1% worse. What does the election result say about the Polish political scene and what consequences will it have? What can be expected for the direction of European policy after the election? The previous cabinet, formed by the Law and Justice party, was extremely skeptical about cooperation and tried to limit the integration process. Will Poland return to the European arena as a powerful player and what does the country have to offer Europe?

David Gregosz, Dr. Piotr Womela
July 2, 2024
Country Reports
IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

Shock, not Excitement: Bidens Debate with Trump

U.S. press comments after the first televised debate of the presidential election campaign

Unusually early in the presidential election campaign, candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump met for their first televised debate. Biden's team hoped the event would give his campaign a boost - but the opposite was the case. The debate was organized by CNN and will be followed by another debate in September, hosted by ABC News. What happened in the first debate has significantly increased the arc of suspense until September.

Dr. Hardy Ostry, Jan Bösche
July 2, 2024
Country Reports
IMAGO / TT

France moves to the far right

First round of the parliamentary elections

The right-wing populist party Rassemblement National (RN) and its allies led by Les Républicains (LR) President Eric Ciotti came out on top in the first round of the French parliamentary elections with 33.15% of the votes. This is according to the results announced by the Ministry of the Interior on the night of 30 June to 1 July. The RN is followed by the left-wing parties of the New Popular Front (27.99%) and the parties of the presidential majority grouped under the Ensemble alliance (20.04%). The last word has not yet been spoken on the composition of the new National Assembly. Much will depend on the electoral recommendations of the democratic parties in the constituencies in which they have been eliminated. In 306 constituencies, three candidates have also emerged for the second round of voting (triangulaires). It remains to be seen whether the democratic third parties will withdraw from the election campaign in order to maintain the firewall against the right-wing populists.

Anja Czymmeck, Nele Katharina Wissmann
July 1, 2024
Country Reports
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The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung is a political foundation. Our offices abroad are in charge of over 200 projects in more than 120 countries. The country reports offer current analyses, exclusive evaluations, background information and forecasts - provided by our international staff.

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