EPP Party Barometer October / November 2018

Possible seat distribution in the coming EP – Scenario 1 – Status Quo

Possible seat distribution in the coming EP – Scenario 2 – Europe en Marche

Possible seat distribution in the coming EP – Scenario 3 – United Radicals

Summary and latest developments

• The maps show the electoral results for parties belonging to the European People‘s Party (and in one case the Socialists).
• The maps indicate the political affiliation of Heads of State and Government of EU member countries. They also indicate which party family is leading in the national polls.
• Parties belonging to the EPP family are (in national polls) the strongest political family in 12 countries . The Socialist family is leading in 6-7 (-1 compared with the last party barometer), the Liberal family in 3-4 countries (in Belgium there is a tie between Socialists and Liberals), the Eurosceptic Conservatives in 3. In Latvia, unaffiliated movements /parties are stronger than any party family, in Italy the far-right is the strongest political family. In France for the first time since the introduction of the party barometer, the RN (former Front National) is at the same level as LREM/Macron
• In many countries, the advantage of the leading political family in the opinion polls is very slim (Sweden, Spain, Slovakia, Finland, Belgium).
• The EPP familiy enjoys a relatively strong support in the opinion polls (above 30%) in Hungary, Austria, Croatia, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Portugal, Greece, Ireland, Malta, Poland and Cyprus
• The relatively strong position of the EPP family can be partly explained by a) the relative weakness of the Socialist family in many countries, b) the high level of party fragmentation in several countries
• In the European Council, 8 Heads of State and Government belong to the EPP family, 7 to the Liberals, 5* to the Socialists/Social Democrats, 2 to the Eurosceptic Conservatives, one to the European Left. 5 are formally independent

*including the ousted Swedish Prime Minister

Outlook on the EP elections in 2019

Introductory remarks:

• Preferences expressed in national opinion polls are not necessarily identical with voting preferences in EP elections
• A low turnout (or a different mobilisation rate among competing parties) may have a strong impact
• The prominence of the „Spitzenkandidat“/national top candidates may influence voter preferences

With caution, the following statements can be made:

• Despite (significant) losses in bigger member states, the EPP would likely remain the strongest political family (174-191 seats) in the EP (24.7%-27.1% of seats)
• In relative terms, the share of the EPP group (currently 29.2% of the seats) would only moderately be reduced (-2.1% up to -4,5%), as the EPP Group will suffer less from the departure of the British MEPs than other political groups (in comparison the S&D would be at 19%, down from 25%)
• Parties of the far-right (ENF) and the far-left (GUE/NGL) would have a potential of more than 20% of the seats, together with a potential new group headed by the 5-Star-movement even around 25%. If the 5-Star movement formed a joint group with GUE and if in addition ENF was exploiting its potential , both groups together could gather around 26-27% of the seats. It is still unclear where the (very diverse) 5-Star-Movement will position itself.
• The potential of the groups at the right of the EPP is approx. 19-20%.
• A coalition of EPP and S&D would not have a majority on its own but would need a third partner
• 64-68% of MEPs would continue to belong to moderate political groups (EPP, S&D, Liberals, Macron-led movement („Europe en Marche“), Greens)
• In comparison to previous barometers small gains for the Greens, small losses for the Liberals (and Macron)