No way out? Navigating global Insecurity

Keynote – “Security Challenges in an Unravelling World“ / Panelists: José Múcio Monteiro (Minister of Defence, Brazil), Juan Battaleme (Secretary of International Defense Affairs, Argentina), Cosmin Dobran (Director for Peace, Partnerships and Crisis Management of European External Action Service (EEAS), Brussels), Moderator: Márcia Loureiro (Ambassador, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Brazil)

The debate on international crime, in particular, is essential for the Latin American understanding of security and was explicitly called for by Minister Múcio in his opening speech. By discussing a multilateral, transnational, global, and international perspective on security across four panels, the Konrad Adenauer Foundation's Brazil office accommodated both regions and brought them together as a transatlantic mediator. Three participants from the Group of 20, which will hold its summit in Rio de Janeiro in about a month and a half, were already represented on the opening panel. At the instigation of Brazilian President Lula da Silva, the meeting of heads of state from the most important emerging and industrialized countries will explicitly not address the constantly deteriorating security situation. The Forte International Security Conference, therefore, offered a welcoming platform to promote the much-needed exchange on security and defense policy in the wake of the G20 meetings.

PANEL 1 – “Forging new paths for Multilateralism“ / Panelists: João Gomes Cravinho (Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Portugal), Jonatan Vseviov (Secretary General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Estonia), Melina Risso (Research Director of Igarapé Institute, Brazil), Moderator: Henning Speck (National Security Advisor to the CDU/CSU Parliamentary Group in the German Bundestag, Germany)

A look back at more than two decades of Forte illustrates the erosion of the global security architecture that emerged after the Second World War and outlasted the Cold War. The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has brought material battles and trench warfare back to Europe, which had long been considered obsolete. Additionally,  the Middle East conflict is also flaring up again despite the Abraham Accords. The first panel explored whether the multilateral institutions created in the post-war period are still relevant. While Risso and Cravinho emphasized that the trade and economic regimes shaped by the Bretton Woods institutions particularly disregarded economically weaker countries, Vseviov pointed out the powerlessness of the United Nations Security Council, which can be blocked at will by the aggressor Russia.

PANEL 2 – “Organized Crime and Democracy: the global scale of the parallel state“ / Panelists: Samira Bueno (Executive-director of Brazilian Forum of Public Security, Brazil), Alberto Lara (Former vice-minister of Security and Defence, Colombia), Moderator: Fernando Azevedo e Silva (Former Minister of Defense, Brazil)

Both experts shed light on the problem of organized crime, which is almost impossible to penetrate from the outside, from a Latin American perspective. Although the panel, moderated by former Brazilian Defense Minister Fernando Azevedo e Silva, lacked a distinctly European perspective, both speakers consistently and emphatically pointed out that crime knows no borders. Whether as a source of funding for international terrorism, a trigger for migration flows, a cause of environmental crimes, or a threat to internal security - there is no shortage of topics for discussion.

PANEL 3 – “Climate meets Security: local threats, global impact“ / Panelists: Fabricio Cabrera Ortiz (General, Head of the Advanced Course in Military Studies at the Colombian War College, Colombia), Kgaugelo Mkumbeni (Research Officer at Institute for Security Studies ISS, South Africa), Moderator: Feliciano Guimarães (Professor at the University of São Paulo USP and Academic Director at CEBRI, Brazil)

The accelerating changes in the global climate are proving to be both limitless and increasingly threatening. A few months after the devastating floods in the southern Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul, the third panel linked the issues of climate and security. Beyond the devastation, economic damage, and supply bottlenecks, the security situation is deteriorating in the wake of natural disasters. The rapid pace of climate change is threatening both internal and interstate upheavals.

PANEL 4 – “On the Horizon: Understanding Escalating Geopolitical Tensions“ / Panelists: Catarina dos Santos-Wintz (Member of the German Bundestag CDU/CSU, Germany), Barbora Maronkova (Programme Officer for Global Partner Engagements Section, Public Diplomacy Division, NATO, Belgium), Ronaldo Carmona (Professor at Superior War School ESG and Senior Fellow at CEBRI, Brazil), Moderator: Oliver Stuenkel (Professor at Getúlio Vargas Foundation FGV, Brazil)

In the concluding fourth panel, the discussion returned to the current geopolitical challenges. Despite the numerous congruencies between Brazil and Latin America on one hand and Germany and Europe on the other, the panel was unable to conceal foreign policy divergences. While Carmona expressed understanding for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, justifying it with an alleged expansion of NATO, Maronkova referred to the defensive character of the alliance. CDU member of the Bundestag Catarina dos Santos-Wintz had a unique advantage in the panel discussion, as the Portuguese native did not require a translator. Although there were disagreements on the matter, the panel ended amicably, with the participants agreeing to disagree.

Even in Latin America, which until now has been remote from the hottest flashpoints, there is a growing need for a sophisticated exchange on the “hard” security and defense policy issues of our time. The "globalization of insecurity" is now awakening interest in the region beyond expert circles, as people seek explanations for the increasingly complex interrelationships.

However, the goal of the conference is to intensify the dialogue between Europe and Latin America, particularly between Germany and Brazil. A look at the recent upheavals emphasizes the importance of extensive exchanges in the “other” transatlantic relations.

While the Forte Security Conference began as an exclusive gathering of a few experts behind the thick walls of the Forte de Copacabana coastal fortifications, the circle of participants has expanded in recent years. This year's conference attracted hundreds of viewers at home via livestream and in person at Rio de Janeiro's spectacular Museu do Amanhã. More than 13 nationalities from four continents were represented among the invited guests.

Maximilian Benjamin Hedrich, Director of the KAS Brazil Office since December 2023, drew a positive conclusion from his first Forte Security Conference, while also calling for greater efforts, particularly from Europeans. Although the partnership with Brazil is in our mutual interest, it requires a more intensive exchange to enable us to meet our counterparts on equal footing.