Key Findings
Since the Arab Spring a decade ago, the geopolitics of West Asia has transformed. The recent Abraham Accords and the Al-Ula Accord with Qatar, and the potential lifting of sanctions on Iran, will further change the regional landscape.
Abraham Accords: Compared with Israel’s earlier peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan, the Abraham Accords are qualitatively different. They lend religious legitimacy to the state of Israel by using the word Abrahamic. It implies that Muslims and Jews belong to the same Abrahamic tradition. These accords are a historical step to remove anti-Semitism as they counter the widespread notion in the Arab world that Israel is the creation of the colonialist powers. Post-Accord, the rapid pace of normalisation between Israel and the UAE (including the visa-free travel arrangement) has been surprising.
The GCC Al-Ula accord: The Al-Ula accord materialised due to the push from the Trump administration. The Arab Quartet’s (Saudi-Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Egypt) blockade on Qatar did not yield the desired result. So, the Arab Quartet was looking for a way to mend relations. But, Qatar will continue to have a different policy than its neighbours, as it harbours distinct regional ambitions. It has maintained relations with Iran, Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Role of the UAE: The UAE punches far above its weight in the region. A prospering economy and a capable military have enabled it to take on a greater share of regional responsibility. The UAE has also emerged as a vanguard against religious and fundamental extremism by taking a hard-line against groups like the Muslim Brotherhood and deporting terrorist masterminds to India. Due to the Saudi and Emirati crackdown on terrorist networks, the Gulf is no longer the playground of terrorists as desired by Pakistan. The UAE has prioritised tolerance with other faiths by establishing a high profile Ministry of Tolerance and the Abrahamic Family House.
Biden administration’s West Asia policy: President Biden will not be Obama 2.0, he will have a different West Asia policy from his predecessors. It will retain some elements of President Trump’s policy, such as retaining the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem and building on the Abraham and Al-Ula accords. He is also unlikely to prioritise the Palestine issue. But on Iran, the U.S. policy will change as Biden will seek to bring Tehran to the negotiation table. It is difficult to say whether he will succeed.
Israel/Arabs on U.S. return to Iran deal: From the Israeli standpoint, if the U.S. returns to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Israel will be forced to reassess its options as it cannot tolerate enhanced Iranian nuclear capabilities. Arabs, too, found the JCPOA problematic because it encouraged Iranian efforts to create a ‘Shia crescent’ to encircle the Arab world. Arab countries did not have any representation in negotiations. They are lobbying Washington to protect their interests, but in the eventuality of the U.S. return to the JCPOA, they may have to realign themselves to adjust to the new reality.
Other regional players: Turkey, once a democracy, is now an authoritarian regime. It can be a balancing power against Iran, but its behaviour is destructive. In some aspects, such as trade and commerce, President Erdogan has adopted a pragmatic policy. Egypt, which was once central to the Arab world, has lost its status after the failed Arab Spring. The current government is more repressive than the Mubarak regime. Today, Saudi Arabia and UAE have taken the lead in setting the region’s direction. A case in point was Qatar’s boycott, which was decided upon by Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, and Cairo merely implemented it.
India and West Asia: In recent years, India has prioritised relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia and UAE under its ‘Look West’ policy. However, it has also demonstrated a remarkable finesse of talking to other countries, which are hostile to each other.
- The strategic partnership with UAE and Saudi Arabia has brought rewards in political, economic and energy spheres. This is especially true in energy, where India has developed its first strategic petroleum reserve with the UAE’s help. More investment opportunities from UAE can materialise only if India improves its domestic investment regulations.
- The U.S. sanctions on Iran have hurt India. So, any potential easing will benefit India as it will be able to resume relatively normal bilateral trade.
- The condition of the Indian diaspora has improved over the last 5-6 years. For instance, Qatar has tightened its labour laws to improve its global standing as it prepares to hold the FIFA World Cup in 2022. India too is working with many governments in the region to provide better protection to its workers, most of whom are blue-collar.
- On the security front, India has taken on more responsibilities in the maritime domain rather than free-riding. There are opportunities to expand this engagement through the Indian Ocean Rim Association and other platforms.
ICC ruling on Palestinian territories: Israel perceives the recent International Criminal Court (ICC) ruling (that the court has jurisdiction to investigate potential war crimes committed in Palestinian territories) as biased. By approaching the ICC and other international organisations, the Palestinian side is avoiding direct negotiations with Israel. Israelis perceive their military’s behaviour as spotless barring a few exceptions that its judiciary has dealt with.
Democracy in West Asia: The experience of the Arab Spring has demonstrated that a realistic approach to the region is needed to promote democracy. It is a choice between democracy and stability, as seen from the events in Egypt, Libya and Iraq. It is for this reason that there are not too many democracies in this region.