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Israel one year after the Hamas terror attack

One war, multiple fronts

October 7th, 2024 marks the first anniversary of Hamas' terrorist attack on Israel and the war the country has been forced to fight on several fronts ever since. There are still 101 Israelis hostages held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The security situation in the country has repeatedly changed and intensified over the past year. In particular in the north, the conflict with Hezbollah has escalated further and further over the summer months. Israel has already deployed significant forces to the north in recent months. Following the killing of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, Israel began a ground offensive in southern Lebanon. However, the front with Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the one with Hezbollah in the north are not the only ones Israel had to deal with in the last year. On October 1st, Israel was (once again) directly attacked by Iran with a large number of ballistic missiles. An Israeli response to this attack is still pending but is to be expected. One year after the Hamas terror attack, the (security) situation in Israel and the current escalation can be analyzed and understood along the various fronts and conflict hotspots.

Dr. Michael Rimmel, Johannes Sosada
October 7, 2024
Country reports
Imago / Xinhua

Escalation in the Middle East intensifies

Is a regional war inevitable?

• In just over a month, we will mark the first anniversary of the Hamas terror attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Since then, Israel has been at war with attacks from several fronts.
• The situation dramatically peaked over the summer months. Twelve children were killed in a Hezbollah rocket attack. The Israeli army (IDF) then took out a high-ranking Hezbollah commander in Beirut with a targeted airstrike. A few hours later, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyya was killed in Tehran. Although not officially confirmed, the attack is attributed to Israel.
• Iran and its proxies vowed retaliation and announced to attack Israel. The IDF and Israeli security services have been on high alert ever since. On August 25, 2024, an imminent Hezbollah attack was repelled by a pre-emptive strike. Over 100 Israeli fighter jets attacked numerous targets in Lebanon and destroyed over 6,000 Hezbollah missiles and drones.
• At the end of August representatives of the Israeli government announced that the war aims will be extended so that the evacuated inhabitants of northern Israel could return to their homes.
• Negotiations on an agreement between Israel and Hamas to free the Israeli hostages abducted on October 7th and a ceasefire appear to have reached an impasse. Since August 28, 2024, Israel has also been conducting a major military operation in the West Bank with the aim of preventing further attacks from there.

Dr. Michael Rimmel, Johannes Sosada
September 2, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / IPON

Israel's regional foreign and security policy

Between Domestic Volatility, Regional Frictions and External Threats

Just days after Israel's President Isaac Herzog reassured the Biden administration about the state of democracy in Israel and praised the importance of bilateral relations with the US in his speech before the US Congress, the Knesset passed a portion of the controversial judicial reform shortly before its parliamentary summer break in late July. The debates surrounding the reform, which its opponents view as a threat to the democratic nature of the state, along with protests from various groups, have significantly heightened societal polarization in Israel over the past few months.

Additionally, security experts have increasingly warned of risks to Israel's internal and external security. These concerns were seemingly confirmed when, in the course of the last few weeks, more and more reservists declared their refusal to serve - in protest against the government's plans. Fears of a progressive erosion of social cohesion and consequently diminishing national resilience, which is considered by Israelis as an essential component of both internal and external security, are finding their foreign and security policy equivalent in the tense security situation on Israel's northern border, an escalating spiral of violence between Israelis and Palestinians, a more aggressive settlement policy under the current government, as well as closed doors for Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington and in the Arab Gulf.

Israel's Prime Minister, who in the past was attested by supporters and opponents alike to have an excellent sense of foreign and security policy – often referred to as "Mr. Security" – has propelled himself into a predicament in this area as well; his hardline political coalition partners have played a not inconsiderable role in this. An overview of the current regional foreign and security policy developments highlights the various areas of tension.

Dr. Beatrice Gorawantschy, Lina Michelsen
August 30, 2023
Country reports
IMAGO / UPI Photo

Israel's Judicial Reform

Despite massive opposition, the Knesset passes a core element of the controversial judicial reform

On July 24, the right-wing coalition government, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, voted to abolish the so-called “reasonableness clause”. Until now, the clause allowed the court to declare government decisions, or even the appointment of ministers, as "unreasonable" and thus prevent them. The opposition boycotted the vote and left the plenary amid loud protest - symbolically the vote went 64:0. Now, the passed law, which is a core element of the controversial judicial reform, restricts the Israeli Supreme Court's ability to act.

Johannes Sosada
July 26, 2023
Country reports
IMAGO / ZUMA Wire

Israel Between Uproar and Paralysis

A part of the controversial judicial reform has been approved by the Israeli parliament following the first reading

In the early hours of Tuesday, 11 July 2023, a part of the controversial judicial reform – the Reasonableness Standard Bill” – has been approved after its first reading at the Knesset. Supporters of the now-initiated bill are hopeful that this will end what they deem an unjustified and undemocratic interference of the Supreme Court in government decisions. Critics, however, consider this step a threat to the separation of powers. Protests erupted inside and outside the Knesset as a result of the first reading of the bill. It should be noted that the demonstrations against the policies of the government, especially the judicial reform, now continue into their 27th week. A vibrant civil society consisting of different societal sector and political streams has been taking to the streets every single week since the beginning of this year to peacefully demonstrate for democratic values. Over the course of the past few weeks, these protests have been taking on a new dimension in the form of substantial road blocks and with tyres being burned. The response of the security forces, on the other hand, is growing increasingly firm. However, the protests shed light on other aspects as well. While the judicial reform might be a primary factor, these events also indicate the extent to which Israeli society is divided.

Dr. Beatrice Gorawantschy, Johannes Sosada
July 12, 2023
Country reports
Reuters / POOL New

Israel im Schatten der Justizreform - aktuelle Herausforderungen für die Demokratie

Steht die Gewaltenteilung auf dem Spiel?

„We are no longer in a political debate, but on the brink of constitutional and social collapse“ - Israel am Rande eines verfassungsrechtlichen und gesellschaftlichen Zusammenbruchs - so der israelische Staatspräsident Jitzchak Herzog in einer emotionalen Fernsehansprache vom 12. Februar, die die Dramatik der aktuellen innenpolitischen Situation in Israel verdeutlicht. Anlass dieser - für israelische Staatspräsidenten eher ungewöhnlichen - Rede an die Nation war die andauernde Debatte um die von der Regierung Benjamin Netanjahu geplante Justizreform. Diese hat das Land in eine historische Verfassungskrise und Krise der inneren Verfasstheit gleichermaßen gestürzt und stellt die Demokratie vor große Herausforderungen.

Dr. Beatrice Gorawantschy
March 6, 2023
Country reports
IMAGO / IPON

Netanjahus Tanz auf dem Vulkan

Israel nach den Wahlen

Wahlen werden am Wahltag entschieden - eine simple Tatsache, die sich in Israel mit den Parlamentswahlen bewiesen hat. Alle Umfragen und Prognosen hatten auf ein knappes Wahlergebnis gedeutet oder gar eine politische Pattsituation vorausgesagt. Das Resultat der Parlamentswahlen vom 1. November ist allerdings deutlicher, als viele Experten vermuteten. Benjamin „Bibi“ Netanjahus Likud und seine ultraorthodoxen und rechtsextremen Wunschkoalitionspartner konnten eine stabile Mehrheit von 64 von 120 Knessetsitzen erringen. Insbesondere das rechtsextreme Wahlbündnis „Der Religiöse Zionismus“ konnte seine Mandate verdoppeln. Das Wahlergebnis überrascht nicht wirklich, hält man sich die demografischen und gesellschaftspolitischen Veränderungen Israels der letzten Jahre vor Augen. Allerdings ist das Ausmaß des Wahlsieges des ultrarechten Bündnisses - gekoppelt mit dem signifikanten Absturz der politischen Linken durch das Ausscheiden der grünen Meretz aus dem Parlament - ein Schock und Weckruf zugleich. Kann „Bibi“ die Geister, die er rief, kontrollieren? Diese Frage ist entscheidend, wenn es darum geht, den Charakter der israelischen Demokratie zu bewahren und Schaden vom Ansehen Israels in der Welt abzuwenden.

Philipp Burkhardt, Dr. Beatrice Gorawantschy
November 9, 2022
Country reports

Wahlen in Israel

Demokratie auf dem Prüfstand

In Israel finden am 1. November 2022 erneut Knesset-Wahlen statt. Es sind die fünften Wahlen zum israelischen Parlament innerhalb von nur drei Jahren. Diese politische Instabilität ist Resultat einer Überlagerung des ohnehin zerklüfteten politischen Systems durch die Frage, wie man sich zum Langzeitpremierminister und derzeitigen Oppositionsführer Benjamin Netanjahu positioniert. „Wie hast Du’s mit Bibi [Netanjahu]?“ bleibt die politische Gretchenfrage in Israel. Übergangspremierminister und gefährlichster Gegner Netanjahus, Yair Lapid, versucht indes den Nimbus des Staatsmännischem, den ihm sein Amt verleiht, für den Wahlkampf zu nutzen. Über die politische Zukunft Israels dürfte die Wahlbeteiligung entscheiden – nicht zuletzt die der arabischen Israelis oder Palästinenser mit israelischer Staatsbürgerschaft. Der Wahlkampf wird mit kompromissloser Härte geführt und die politischen Führungsfiguren stehen nicht nur vor der Mammutaufgabe, eine Koalition zu schmieden. Auch die Risse innerhalb der israelischen Gesellschaft treten immer deutlicher zutage und wo Kompromiss und Annäherung geboten wäre, scheinen sich Abgrenzung und Ablehnung durchzusetzen.

Dr. Beatrice Gorawantschy, Philipp Burkhardt
October 19, 2022
Country reports

Das vorzeitige Ende des Wandels?

Die israelische Regierung vor großen Herausforderungen

Die Regierung Bennett-Lapid, die als „Regierung des Wandels“ vor knapp einem Jahr angetreten ist, sieht sich mit Herausforderungen konfrontiert, die der Vertreibung der Stymphalischen Vögel gleichkommen. Während sich außenpolitisch vielfach Entspannung und regionale Annäherung abzeichnet, besteht ein politisches Patt in der Knesset. Das Überleben der Acht-Parteien-Koalition hängt am seidenen Faden und im Hintergrund sieht Benjamin Netanjahu bereits seine dritte Amtszeit aufdämmern.

Dr. Beatrice Gorawantschy, Philipp Burkhardt, Lina Michelsen
June 7, 2022
Country reports

Israel: Zwei Monate zwischen Kompromiss und Krise

Die Regierung Bennett-Lapid: „Koalition des Wandels“ oder politisches Kurzzeitexperiment?

Unmittelbar nach der jüngsten Gaza-Gewalteskalation vom Mai 2021 ist in Israel eine neue Regierung ins Amt gekommen, der Skeptiker keine lange Lebensdauer voraussagen. Es handelt sich um eine Acht-Parteien-Koalition unterschiedlicher politischer Couleur, deren einendes Element zunächst die Bestrebung war, Langzeitpremier Benjamin Netanjahu (dauerhaft) aus dem Amt zu drängen. Nachdem dies zumindest aktuell gelungen ist, gilt es, sich den vordergründigen innen- und außenpolitischen Herausforderungen zu stellen. Wo eigentlich die politisch ruhige See benötigt würde, zeichnen sich nationale und regionale Konflikte ab, die die äußert dünne Regierungsmehrheit von nur einer Stimme gefährden. Es gibt aber auch Anzeichen, die möglicherweise für einen längeren Bestand der Regierung sprechen.

Philipp Burkhardt, Dr. Beatrice Gorawantschy
August 23, 2021
Country reports
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