Country Reports

Shigeru Ishiba – The LDP Reformer?

A Portrait of Japan’s New Prime Minister

Shigeru Ishiba will become Japan's next Prime Minister. In a dramatic final round of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election, Shigeru Ishiba emerged victorious over Sanae Takaichi. With this win, it is now certain: Ishiba will become Japan's next Prime Minister.

Where does Japan stand at the end of the Kishida government?

A security and economic policy assessment after three years in office

Alongside the U.S., Japan will soon also be led by a new head of government. The two economic heavyweights are more closely intertwined than ever in terms of economic and security policy. The challenges facing the island nation therefore not only affect Japanese domestic policy.

G7 in Hiroshima

A critical Juncture

In light of Russia’s war in Ukraine and an increasingly tense international environment, Japan and its fellow G7 nations hope to characterize this year’s summit in the name of peace. Hiroshima, Prime Minister Kishida’s constituency, being the target of the first offensive nuclear weapon on August 6, 1945, in history, serves to remind all G7 nations of their commitment to peace and unity in times of international uncertainties. This year’s meeting is characterized by a more inclusive approach by inviting seven non-member countries as observers in addition to shifting the G7’s gaze toward the Global South to formulate a more comprehensive political and economic approach that includes developing and middle-income nations in future policy drafts. Despite the united stance of G7 member states, each nation brings forward a specific focus of interest to the discussion. For Japan, topics of nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation as well as energy security and strengthening the Indo-Pacific are of primary importance, whereas Germany’s emphasis lies on the global impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war and the continuous support of the global community for Ukraine.

Upper House Election 2022

Results and Implications

The Upper House election, held July 10, ended in a landslide victory for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The election took place in a sombre mood of national mourning following the tragic death of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, shot while campaigning just two days before polling. This paper describes the implications of this election for the major political parties.

Japan - Wahlen im Schatten des Attentats

Die liberaldemokratische Regierungspartei LDP gewinnt die Oberhauswahlen mit erwartungsgemäß großer Mehrheit

Der 8. Juli wird sich in Japans Geschichte einbrennen. Es ist der „Kennedy Moment“ des Landes, als um die Mittagszeit Shinzo Abe während eines Wahlkampfauftritts erschossen wird. Wenig später erliegt er seinen Verletzungen und reißt ein tiefes Loch in seine Familie, in seine Partei und in die Politik Japans. Zwei Tage nach dem tödlichen Anschlag auf den ehemaligen Ministerpräsidenten Shinzo Abe erzielt die konservative LDP-Komeito-Koalition eine komfortable Mehrheit im Oberhaus. Zum Feiern ist dennoch niemandem zu Mute. Zu tief sitzt der Schock über den Verlust desjenigen, der bis zum Schluss die Agenda der LDP entscheidend mitbestimmt hat. Die nächsten Wahlen werden voraussichtlich erst im Oktober 2025 stattfinden, wenn das Unterhaus neu zu besetzen ist. Damit hat Premierminister Fumio Kishida nach neun Monaten im Amt freie Hand, um die politische Agenda seiner Regierung voranzutreiben. Der Premier steht nun vor der Frage, wohin er sein politisches Kapital lenken wird: Verfassungsreform und Verteidigungspolitik; Bekämpfung der Inflation und der Energieknappheit; oder sein eigenes politisches Flaggschiff, dem "Neuen Kapitalismus". Kishida hat bereits eine Kabinettsumbildung angekündigt, Anfang September wird er die neue Regierung berufen haben. Im August stehen die Trauerzeremonien für Shinzo Abe an.

In der Sache richtig, aber ohne viel Substanz

Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz besucht Japan

Während in Berlin der Bundestag an der verteidigungspolitischen Zeitenwende arbeitet und das Sondervermögen der Bundeswehr diskutiert, reiste Bundeskanzler Scholz nach Japan. Dass die Wahl auf Japan fiel, macht das Zögern des damaligen Koalitionspartners bei der Entsendung der Fregatte Bayern in den Indo-Pazifik wieder wett. Dass die erste Asienreise nicht nach China führte, ist ein starkes Zeichen der neuen deutschen Außenpolitik – die jedoch maßgeblich vom grünen Koalitionspartner bestimmt wird.

Abe’s Long Shadow—Japan Struggles Toward a Political Awakening

Fumio Kishida was confirmed in office as prime minister at the constituent session of the new parliament on 10 November. In her sixteen years in office, outgoing German Chancellor Angela Merkel has seen a total of ten Japanese prime ministers come and go. Fumio Kishida, the 101st prime minister, is unlikely to meet her in person again, yet the numbers speak volumes with regard to Japan’s rotating government. The concern that Japan will once again fall into a long period of changing prime ministers is justified, as the Abe era weighs heavily on the party and the government.

Abes langer Schatten – Japan müht sich in den politischen Aufbruch

Fumio Kishida wurde am 11. November auf der konstituierenden Sitzung des neuen Parlaments als Premierminister im Amt bestätigt. In ihrer sechzehnjährigen Amtszeit hat die scheidende Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel insgesamt zehn Premierminister erlebt. Fumio Kishida, den Hundertsten, wird sie vermutlich nicht mehr persönlich treffen, dennoch sprechen die Zahlen Bände im Hinblick auf die rotierenden Regierungen Japans. Die Sorge ist berechtigt, dass Japan erneut in eine lange Phase wechselnder Premierminister verfällt, denn die Abe-Ära lastet schwer auf Partei und Regierung.

General Election 2021

Results and Implications

The current ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito won the 2021 general election. Fumio Kishida took over the Prime Ministership from Yoshide Suga only weeks before and has already pledged many reforms for the new government and Diet to put in action. This includes a ‘new capitalism’, revised distribution policy, and economic security.

General Election Outlook 2021 - Opinion Piece

Developments in the Final Racing Rounds of the Political Circuit

According to the traditional Japanese calendar autumn has already arrived, but the unbearably hot summer still continues. We have felt the heat lingering on longer than before in recent years, most likely due to global warming. This tremendously hot summer will transform into a hot fall in the political arena, as Members of the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of the National Diet of Japan, are fast approaching the end of their term on October 21. In addition, Prime Minister (PM) Yoshihide Suga's term as the party leader (president) of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will come to an end this month. At the same time, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Olympic and Paralympic Games have proved to be complex political issues for the government. Suga still battles to control COVID-19 but has successfully hosted the Olympic Games in which Japan did surprisingly well. (The Japan team had its highest ever haul: 27 Gold, 14 Silver, and 17 Bronze medals.) However, the PM is unlikely to earn any credit for this. It is still difficult to make any definite prediction regarding a general election even now at the beginning of September, with less than two months of the lawmakers‘ terms remaining. (Here the term "general election“ refers to the House of Representatives election). The LDP has decided to hold its leadership (presidential) election on September 29 , thus the general election will take place sometime after this, from October to November. In this paper I will discuss possible general election dates and explain why it is so difficult to predict a definite date.