About the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung
The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) is a political foundation of the Federal Republic of Germany. With more than 100 offices worldwide KAS fosters international cooperation and development and promotes the principles of liberal democracy and social market economy. The KAS Lebanon Office works on topics with political, social and economic relevance in Lebanon including political reforms and participation, transparency, accountability, socioeconomic development, entrepreneurship and innovation. In this scope, the KAS Lebanon office conducts a diverse array of projects and publishes research and analyses about the relevant and timely political issues.
Thematic Context
The compounded crisis that began in 2019 has been described as the most severe challenge Lebanon has faced since the end of the country’s 15-year-long civil war in 1990. Deep-rooted corruption and resulting socioeconomic hardships triggered widespread, nationwide protests in October 2019, leading to the resignation of individual political figures and a reshuffling of the government. Yet, despite protestors’ demands for the complete overhaul of the state's confessional system, no change to the overall political governance structures was achieved. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic only exacerbated the existent crises in the country, while the Beirut port explosion in the same year inflicted large-scale destruction, death and displacement on Lebanon’s capital and beyond, serving as yet another reminder of the severe governmental negligence. Since then, investigations into the explosion have been obstructed by responsible political elites, while the ongoing economic collapse in Lebanon has amounted to one of the worst financial crises since the mid-19th century worldwide. The banking sector bankruptcy has not only led to hyperinflation and skyrocketing prices for basic goods and services, but also pushed the majority of Lebanese citizens below the poverty line, with depositors facing immense and irrecoverable capital losses.
Much needed economic and political reforms, however, cannot be achieved and international aid for Lebanon cannot be accessed as long as Lebanon’s Parliament remains in a deadlock as it repeatedly fails to elect a president since October 2022. In addition, with the start of the Israel-Gaza war in October 2023, tensions along the Lebanon-Israel border have flared up after the Lebanese militia Hezbollah has entered the conflict in support of Hamas, raising fears of an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon, and possibly beyond. Given its geographic location within and between zones of prolonged conflict, Lebanon has also been deeply affected by the spillover from the Syrian civil war. Lebanon hosts one of the largest numbers of refugees per capita worldwide, and the conflict has disrupted cross-border trade and economic stability. With a deadlocked political system, one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios in the world, large refugee populations, and the potential of war spreading from the southern parts to the rest of the country, Lebanon faces a precarious and unpredictable future that warrants urgent attention and preparation for durable solutions from local, regional, and international actors.
Objective
The KAS Lebanon Office seeks an experienced Strategic Foresight Consultant to plan, conceptualize and conduct a three-day workshop in Beirut in November 2024, using established scenario planning methodologies to facilitate the creation of plausible future scenarios for Lebanon. The workshop aims to gather a diverse group of local experts and practitioners from various fields such as politics, economics, security, academia and the humanitarian sector in Lebanon to collectively explore potential future trajectories and associated challenges, risks and opportunities that can, amongst others, guide policy making in regards to Lebanon and the related regional context.
Objectives of the three-day workshop include but are not limited to:
- Developing future scenarios of the political, economic and security situation in Lebanon and their implications for key stakeholders and populations
- Identifying key drivers, uncertainties, risks, opportunities, spoilers and potential tipping points related to domestic affairs, regional developments, and international policy towards Lebanon
- Achieving strategic insights and drafting policy options to guide decision-making processes of European policy makers with regards to the evolving situation in Lebanon
Deliverables
- A comprehensive and well-structured workshop agenda outlining different sessions as well as related indicators and objectives, while utilizing established scenario planning methodologies
- Leading a three-day workshop in English with approximately 12-15 participants in Beirut in November 2024 to capture in-depth insights regarding future scenarios for Lebanon
- Guiding participants towards the development of strategic recommendations that offer actionable insights for European policymakers and governments
- Contributing material and insights gained from the workshop for the compilation of a report, analyzing the workshop’s main findings
Submission
Eligible candidates are encouraged to apply by sending:
- A proposal with a clearly formulated methodology and draft workshop agenda (max. 7 pages)
- An up-to-date curriculum vitae including reference projects and any other relevant information
- The proposed total budget including a breakdown of consultant fees, materials, miscellaneous costs (excluding potential travel and accommodation expenses, which will be arranged and covered by KAS)
We welcome applications from both individual consultants and teams. For team applications, please clearly outline the roles and responsibilities of each team member, as well as their respective qualifications and experience.
The offer should be submitted by email to anne.bauer@kas.de . The deadline is the September 15, 2024.