Publications

MAPPING PUBLIC OPINION IN THE FAROE ISLANDS ON SECURITY AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS

The main motive behind the survey presented in this working paper is to examine how people in the Faroe Islands relate to pressing foreign policy, defence and security issues. This is a follow-up survey to another survey carried out in November 2021 before the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Both surveys are financed by the German think tank Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, and we would like to express our gratitude to the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung for enabling yet another survey. Some tentative results show that Faroese respondents in general • support the government’s official condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine • support the acceptance of Ukrainian refugees • support restricting the access for Russian ships in Faroese harbours • have become more pro-western and pro-NATO after the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 • consider NATO a positive organization • think that the Faroes should be part of NATO • think that the Faroes should allow American ships to use Faroese harbours • are divided on NATO military activities in Faroese territory • are divided on the annual bilateral fishery agreement with Russia • are worried that war can also hit the Faroes in the future

Norwegian public’s attitudes to foreign policy in 2024

A status quo nation in a time of global turmoil

What is the Norwegian public’s opinion on the state of the world? And what foreign policy does it want the Norwegian government to pursue? In this report, we present the findings from an opinion poll conducted by Sentio for NUPI in the period 18 to 24 April 2024. The global landscape is deeply unsettled, and we find ourselves in an era marked by considerable uncertainty about future developments in world politics. The great power rivalry between the United States and China is intensifying, the war in Ukraine continues to rage, the war in Gaza is causing immense human suffering and having major ramifications for the Middle East, and the effects of global warming are becoming increasingly apparent. The Norwegian government has warned through, for example, its intelligence service’s annual report on security threats, that Norway is facing its most serious security situation in decades.1 However, a key finding in our report is that the Norwegian public is somewhat measured in its assessments and considers the general threat level for Norway to be moderate, i.e. at a normal level. This suggests that the government’s actions have minimal impact on public opinion on world politics. The public’s failure to grasp the severity of the security situation is both surprising and alarming, as is its disregard for official communications about the geopolitical threats facing Norway.

European elections 2024

Barrier-free?

The lack of equality for people with disabilities is still omnipresent in the European Union. For the 2019 European elections, a report by the European Economic and Social Committee showed that around 800,000 EU citizens from 16 member states were excluded from the right to vote in European elections due to national regulations because of their disabilities or mental illness. The European elections in June 2024 brought the issue back to the fore, as it is also about a lack of political participation. Here you will find a brief assessment by our KAS colleagues who have looked at the current conditions in their countries of assignment.

Iceland has a new President

With 80.8 % a very high voter turnout, 75% of the votes went to female candidates

A simple majority of 34.3% was enough to lead to the outcome on Saturday: Halla Tómasdóttir, 55 years old, a successful businesswoman with social commitment, becomes Iceland's 7th president since the country was founded in 1944. This year, Iceland celebrates 80 years since proclaiming independence from Denmark. All 12 candidates for the presidential election ran as independents, including Katrín Jakobsdóttir, until recently Prime Minister, crime writer and leader of the green-left movement, which is part of the current governing coalition. She only achieved second place with 25%, having long been the favourite for the position. She resigned from all her duties to run for president. The role of the Icelandic president is a representative one. In addition to appointing the prime minister and ministers, the president shares legislative power with parliament, as he has to sign laws and therefore has a veto. It is not the president's job to conclude agreements with foreign states. Nevertheless, he can open doors that facilitate agreements.

Regional Program Nordic Countries

Security in the European Arctic

For the five Nordic countries security in the arctic is, now more than ever, of utmost importance. Due to the developments of the past years the aspect of security has become more intertwined, not just with military considerations, but also with socio-, economical- and political aspects. While this interlinkage requires a new perspective on some long-standing believes, the most prominent topics concerning security are Russia´s military build-up in the North, as well as no-arctic nations, such as China and India, who are increasingly influencing the regional governance structures. Finland’s and Sweden’s accession into NATO has contributed to the change in the regional power dynamics. The regional program Nordic Countries strives to actively develop and shape the dialog around the security in the arctic, by means of hosting roundtables, as well as breakout sessions, podium discussions and event series with partner organizations. Additionally we fund the publications of scientific studies and surveys.

Finland Relies on Popular Politicians in Times of Crisis

Alexander Stubb in first place after the first round of the presidential elections

Finland has enjoyed special attention in the security policy context at least since the country joined NATO in April 2023 and due to its comprehensive strategy of defensive democracy ("total defense"). Hybrid attacks from the Russian side have increased since Russia's attack on Ukraine. Finland recently had to close its border posts in the east due to migration controlled by Russia. The Finnish president, who is directly elected every six years, is the commander-in-chief of the army and is responsible for enacting laws, appointing ministers and foreign and security policy. Sauli Niinistö, who is still in office, negotiated the path from his country's application to NATO membership prudently and purposefully with an overwhelming vote of the Finnish population and thus also received a great deal of international recognition. Alexander Stubb, like Niinistö from the conservative Rally Party, is now likely to succeed him. He received 27.2% of the vote on election night, but was closely followed by Pekka Haavisto, former Green Foreign Minister in the Marin cabinet, with 25.8%.

Challenges for Sweden one year after forming the government

Government loses support, Sweden Democrats make gains

The Kristersson government has been in office for a year with the support of the right-wing nationalist Sweden Democrats under the Tidö-Agreement.

Leaning into Cooperation

Changes in Icelanders' Perspectives on International Politics after Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

This report summarizes the main findings of the second iteration of a survey of Icelanders’ attitudes towards foreign affairs and international cooperation. The findings reflect a changed reality, as Russia’s war against Ukraine has shaken belief in the sanctity of borders and respect for international law. The ramifications of this shift have also had an interesting impact on Icelanders’ perspectives, as summarized in this text. The primary conclusion we can draw is that the invasion of Ukraine has demonstrated to our respondents that they must rely on international cooperation to protect their borders and sovereignty.

“Kristendemokrati” by Eilev Hegstad

an anthology about the Christendemocratic history of ideas

KAS Nordics is proud to be one supporter of the anthology about the Christendemocratic history of ideas “Kristendemokrati” by the Norwegian Publisher Eilev Hegstad. The book can be bought here: https://www.universitetsforlaget.no/kristendemokrati

Government work involving right-wing nationalist parties

Current experiences from Sweden and Finland

Since the fall of 2022, Sweden has had a conservative minority government made up of the Moderates, Christian Democrats and Liberals, supported by the right-wing nationalist "Sweden Democrats" (SD) via a cooperation agreement, the so-called "Tidöavtalet." While cooperation on issues such as fighting crime, expanding nuclear power, as well as in economic and budgetary matters seems to be working, the SD's rhetoric on the EU, migration and Islam has become increasingly strident in recent weeks. Although the Sweden Democrats have officially endorsed Sweden’s membership in NATO in the wake of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, the party’s action about Koran burnings has complicated the ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership by Turkey and contributed to the destabilization of Sweden’s domestic security situation.

Since June 2023, Finland has also had a conservative government, which – unlike in Sweden - brought the right-wing nationalist Perussuomalaiset (PS) into government as a coalition partner with a portfolio covering 8 ministries. Within just a few days of the formation of the government, however, cracks began to show - the PS's economy minister was forced to resign over ties to neo-Nazi circles, and two other PS ministers had to publicly apologize for making racist comments. The finance minister and PS party leader is also under pressure after a violent, xenophobic blog post she had written surfaced. Leader of the conservative National Coalition Party and Prime Minister Orpo has now invited the leaders of the governing parties to an internal debate about racism and discrimination immediately following the summer break. As a result, there is a high degree of confidence that the work of the government can progress. This process was important for the continued viability of the coalition, as the increasing number of scandals surrounding right-wing PS politicians, or their statements put the three other coalition members under immense political pressure.