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Short political reports of the KAS offices abroad

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IMAGO / newspix

Tusk's Government Faces Obstacles

Poland One Year After the Change in Leadership

In October 2023, Poland experienced a historic moment of democratic engagement, with record voter turnout leading to a victory for the Civic Coalition (KO) under Donald Tusk. This electoral shift marked the end of the national-conservative Law and Justice Party's (PiS) eight-year rule. The new government faced the daunting dual challenge of reversing the PiS’s systematic erosion of the rule of law and repairing strained relations with the European Union and other international partners.

David Gregosz, Susanna Zapf
November 25, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / ABACAPRESS

After the European elections in Poland

The EU policy of the Tusk government

The pro-European and liberal Civic Platform party won the European Parliament elections in June 2024. Its biggest competitor, the right-wing conservative Law and Justice party, came second with a result only 1% worse. What does the election result say about the Polish political scene and what consequences will it have? What can be expected for the direction of European policy after the election? The previous cabinet, formed by the Law and Justice party, was extremely skeptical about cooperation and tried to limit the integration process. Will Poland return to the European arena as a powerful player and what does the country have to offer Europe?

David Gregosz, Dr. Piotr Womela
July 2, 2024
Country reports
Adobe Stock / Panama

Poland as a strong security guarantor on NATO’s eastern flank

What can a successful modernization of the Polish armed forces mean for Europe and Germany?

Core elements of Polish security and defense policy are a strong perception of the threat posed by Russia, strong ties to NATO and intensive bilateral relations with the USA. A hallmark of Polish defense policy is a strengthening of security resilience, which is being consistently pursued despite the change of government. The radical modernization of the armed forces is being achieved through increased funding (3.9 percent of GDP), a new concept of general defense, a planned increase in troops and new purchases of mostly US equipment. The Republic of Poland will not become a security guarantor for Eastern Europe in the medium term without foreign arms imports. This requires European and American support, coordination and scaling. If this succeeds, the eastern flank would be more secure than ever in history.

David Gregosz, Dr. Daniel Lemmen, Benjamin Urban
June 10, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / Forum

Local elections in Poland 2024

Tailwind or setback for the new Tusk government?

Regional and local elections were held in Poland on 7 April 2024. The national-conservative party Law and Justice (PiS) had the best result with 34.4%. In second place was the liberal electoral alliance Civic Coalition (KO) with 30.6%, while the third place on the podium went to the centrist electoral committee Third Way (Trzecia Droga) with 14.3%. In total, the liberal democratic parties won just over 50% and will govern in most of Poland's 16 regions. In this sense, PiS lost this election, if by losing we mean losing power. PiS has no coalition capacity and in principle can only govern where it has won an absolute majority. Its shares in local government have decreased and that of KO has increased. But in terms of image, PiS won the elections.

David Gregosz, Dr. Piotr Womela
April 16, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / Eastnews

Difficult change: From the PiS state back to the rule of law

Fifty turbulent days for the new coalition

The parliamentary elections on October 15, 2023 have fundamentally changed the face of the Polish political scene. With a record voter turnout of over 73%, the national-conservative government, formed by the Law and Justice party (PiS), was deposed and the four liberal democratic coalition parties (Civic Platform - PO, Polska 2050, Polish People's Party - PSL and the New Left) won overall 248 mandates in the 460-seat Sejm. Nevertheless, the PiS remains the strongest faction in parliament with 194 seats. In his first government statement in December, new Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced his cabinet's priorities, which are to restore the rule of law and return Poland to the European family.

Dr. Piotr Womela, David Gregosz
February 5, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / ZUMA Wire

A celebration of democracy

Pro-European opposition wins Polish parliamentary elections

Poland's national-conservative government has lost its political majority after eight years in power. After all votes were counted, the democratic opposition parties won the elections to the Polish Sejm and Senate on October 15th: Koalicja Obywatelska (Citizens' Coalition, KO), Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (Polish People's Party, PSL) and Polska 2050 (Poland 2050) - the latter both running together in the electoral alliance Trzecia Droga (Third Way, TD) – and Lewica (Left). Observers describe this result as a historic turning point, which is marked by a record voter turnout of 74.38% - the highest since the political change in 1989. In the coming months, Poland will face important decisions regarding its domestic and foreign policy. 180-degree changes can be expected in European and German policy, in socio-political issues, and in the style and rhetoric of a new government. The economic and institutional environment remains challenging because financial leeway is becoming narrower and powerful veto players have to be taken into account. Furthermore, there are important local and European elections coming up next year, which is why there are fears that the election campaign will simply continue. The PiS in particular will make things anything but easy for the new government and will make every attempt to damage the three-party alliance.

David Gregosz, Thomas Behrens, Dr. Daniel Lemmen
October 20, 2023
Country reports
Reuters / Kacper Pempel

For more years of “Law and Justice”?

Parliamentary election scenarios for the PiS, Poland’s governing party

Since the Russia invasion in Europe in violation of international law, Poland, Germany’s large neighbour, has become an important “front-line state” on the border of Belarus and Ukraine. In the autumn of 2023, it will elect a new parliament. The “Law and Justice” party, led by Chairman Jarosław Kaczyński, appears confident. The national conservative power expects to form a government for the third time in a row (the first was in 2015) and secure its system of power. What core issues dominate the political discourse, and what ideas guide the PiS? This analysis examines the party’s chances and sketches various election scenarios – including one that involves an entirely new coalition on the Vistula.

David Gregosz, Thomas Behrens
April 6, 2023
Country reports
Reuters / Gleb Garanich

Poland: political and social impact one year after the start of the war in Ukraine

Poland's role in the Ukraine conflict

As a direct neighbor of Ukraine, Poland is directly affected by the consequences of the conflict.

David Gregosz, Dr. Daniel Lemmen
February 28, 2023
Country reports
Reuters / Kacper Pempel

The Polish opposition ahead of the 2023 parliamentary elections: How likely are political changes in Warsaw?

If the opposition does not reconcile and move forward together in the upcoming elections then it could give PiS the opportunity for a third term in office.

Voter’s in Germany’s largest eastern neighbour will be called to the polls this autumn. This election will decide on both chambers of parliament, the Sejm and the Senate. The opposition parties see this as a chance to vote out the PiS-led national conservative government. Although the year has only just begun, Poland’s focus is centered on the upcoming election campaign and the possibility of a change in power. Against this background, the analysis focuses on the polish opposition and explores scenarios for internal cooperation.

David Gregosz, Dr. Daniel Lemmen, Dr. Piotr Womela
February 1, 2023
Country reports

Desinformation als Kriegsinstrument

Russische Narrative zur Rolle Polens im Rahmen des Angriffskrieges

Mit dem russischen Überfall auf die Ukraine im Februar 2022 erreichten die diplomatischen und zivilgesellschaftlichen Beziehungen zwischen Polen und Russland ein Rekordtief. Geografisch könnte der Konflikt für Polen nicht näher sein: So grenzt das Land an die Ukraine, Belarus, Litauen und die Oblast Kaliningrad als Exklave Russlands. Damit ist Polen militärisch unmittelbares Frontland der NATO und ein großer Unterstützer hinsichtlich der Lieferung europäischer sowie US-amerikanischer Waffensysteme an die Ukraine zur Verteidigung gegen die russischen Streitkräfte.

Bis heute lieferte Polen Militärausrüstung im Wert von circa 1,5 Milliarden US-Dollar an die Ukraine, einschließlich 240 Panzer. Darüber hinaus sind seit 2016 US-Streitkräfte in Polen stationiert und Polen ist eines der wenigen Länder, welches die NATO-Vorgabe eines Wehretats von zwei Prozent des BIP nicht nur erfüllt, sondern auch auf mindestens drei Prozent zu erhöhen anstrebt. Auch humanitär leistet Polen einen herausragenden Beitrag bei der zeitweisen Beherbergung von beinahe drei Millionen Menschen aus der Ukraine. Diese besondere geografische, militärische und ideologisch westwärts gerichtete Stellung Polens kann als Grundlage dafür gesehen werden, warum Russland im Rahmen der hybriden Kriegsführung bereits vor 2022 bestehende Desinformationsnarrative mit Nachdruck im Land verbreitet sowie beständig neue Erzählungen in und über Polen entwickelt.

David Gregosz, Daniel Sagradov
August 29, 2022
Country reports
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