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IMAGO / Scanpix

Special election operation in Georgia

A historic election in the South Caucasus is characterised by electoral fraud on a presumably historic scale

The Georgians are a creative nation, for better or for worse. The parliamentary elections on 26 October were an impressive illustration of this. At around 10 p.m., the Central Election Commission announced a result of 53% for the ruling Georgian Dream party, with the four opposition blocs accounting for a total of 38%. Exit polls had painted the opposite picture two hours earlier. Independent election observers, who documented and communicated numerous irregularities during the election day, are calling for the elections to be annulled. The president and the opposition declare that they will not accept the election results. The OSCE's preliminary statement is very critical of the general conditions but certifies that the elections were most widely conducted in a technically correct manner. 

Stephan Malerius
October 29, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / Le Pictorium

Georgia votes: Calm before the storm?

Georgians will vote for a new parliament on 26 October. It is a directional election, Europe is in demand

For the first time since 2012, the opposition in Georgia appears to have a serious chance of replacing the government of pro-Russian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili. Many observers are talking about a mood for change in the country. Although the ruling Georgian Dream party is likely to become the strongest political force again, it will fall short of the necessary majority. There have been no widespread protests during the election campaign so far, but that could change. The current relative calm seems deceptive and a major confrontation could be imminent. Will the government try to manipulate the elections? How will Ivanishvili behave? How will the transfer of power proceed if the opposition wins? What role will the president play? It is an election with many unknowns.

Florian Binder, Stephan Malerius
October 21, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / Xinhua

Azerbaijan - Election without a choice

Aliyev has a new Azerbaijani parliament elected: The voter turnout of 37% speaks for itself

In the parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan, which were moved up due to the COP 29, President Ilham Aliyev's ‘New Azerbaijan’ party, which has been in power since 1995, won on paper. Although it only won 67 out of 125 seats, there will de facto be no independent representatives in the new Azerbaijani parliament.

Stephan Malerius, Florian Binder
September 9, 2024
Country reports
adobe stock / Ramil

Parliamentary elections ahead of COP29

Despite many hurdles and a predictable outcome, independent candidates are challenging Aliyev's government.

Since 1995, the ruling party ‘New Azerbaijan’ has won every election with an overwhelming majority. The early parliamentary elections on 1 September are likely to be no exception. While the country has allowed Western election observation missions to take part in previous polls, this time only the OSCE has been invited. Chinese and Russian election observers are welcome. Despite major obstacles, independent candidates are also running. One of them is Shahriyar Majidzadeh, whose constituency of Tartar also includes parts of Nagorno-Karabakh. His slogan is: ‘Peace, climate protection, gender equality and education’.

Florian Binder, Stephan Malerius
August 27, 2024
Country reports
KAS

Gateway to Armenia, key to peace?

The history of the South Caucasus could be rewritten from Meghri in southern Armenia - a political travel report

In October 2023, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan presented his government's ‘Crossroads of Peace’ initiative at a conference in Tbilisi. This envisages the opening of borders, the restoration of transport routes - road and rail - and the revitalisation of political and cultural connections in the South Caucasus. The initiative is a positive vision for a region that has been characterised by wars and conflicts for three decades. In Meghri, on Armenia's border with Iran, there are glimpses of what a peaceful South Caucasus could look like. But there is still a long way to go, and political will is needed above all. Europe could play a constructive role here.

Stephan Malerius
July 19, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / SNA

“Georgian Dream” turns into a nightmare

The Georgian government is rapidly turning away from the Euro-Atlantic course. But civil society and the opposition are not giving up.

“Foreign Agents Law”, “Offshore Law” and intensified cooperation with China - fundamental political changes are emerging in Georgia. The ruling party “Georgian Dream” has taken the West by surprise with its rapid autocratization. The overwhelmingly pro-European population has been taking to the streets on a historic scale for weeks to protest against these developments. However, the government remains unimpressed and continues the confrontation. The developments are not just about the much-cited “Foreign Agents Law”, but about larger geopolitical shifts in the region. The stakes are high for the West.

Matthias Hespe, Stephan Malerius
June 3, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / ITAR-TASS

Georgian own goal

The law on agents greets us every year: A controversial project is to be passed in the Georgian parliament at the second attempt

In March, the Georgian national soccer team's historic qualification for the European Championship in Germany briefly made us forget the deep rifts that have been running through the political landscape in Georgia for years. However, when the ruling Georgian Dream party pulled an agent law out of the drawer at the beginning of April, which had to be withdrawn last year after massive protests, the rifts are back, and they seem deeper than ever. At first glance, the erratic initiative, just a few months before the parliamentary elections in Georgia, seems like a classic own goal.

Stephan Malerius
April 17, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / SNA

Nothing new in Baku

Incumbent Ilham Aliyev was declared the winner of the presidential elections in Azerbaijan with an overwhelming result. Only the president's vote itself caused a stir.

The start of the "super election year" 2024 had hardly any surprises in store. According to the official results, the incumbent Ilham Aliyev emerged as the clear winner of the early presidential elections in Azerbaijan on February 7. With this election victory, Aliyev has further consolidated his power and will remain in office for another seven years. Even before the election, his fifth re-election was considered a mere formality, as it was a rehearsed simulation of democracy in a state that has been firmly ruled by an authoritarian regime for three decades. Beyond the expected course of events, the president's own vote was of extraordinary symbolic value.

Stephan Malerius, Matthias Hespe
February 9, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / ITAR-TASS

Super election year starts super boring

At the beginning of February, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will be re-elected for a further seven years in office

One of the first votes in the “super election year” of 2024 will take place in the South Caucasus: Early presidential elections are scheduled for 7 February in Azerbaijan. In early December, President Ilham Aliyev, who has been in office since 2003, surprisingly signed a decree bringing forward the vote by 14 months. There was initially no official justification for this decision, which led to intense speculation. The leading opposition parties announced that they would again boycott the ballot. Nevertheless, there are a total of seven candidates, all of whom (have to) praise the incumbent.

Matthias Hespe, Stephan Malerius
February 5, 2024
Country reports
KAS

Sjunik: Between hope and fear - geopolitics under the burning glass

A political travelogue from Southern Armenia

Iran opened a consulate last year in Kapan, the administrative center of the Syunik region in southern Armenia. Russia has now announced that it intends to follow suit, and local sources said the Americans and French are also considering setting up consular posts in Kapan. If that were to happen, four major powers would have a diplomatic presence in a relatively remote small town in southern Armenia with a population of just over 40,000. On the one hand, all of this shows how important this part of the South Caucasus has become basically overnight - having previously been almost completely forgotten for decades. There is also now a growing awareness of the opportunities and dangers that the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan holds. A two-day trip to Syunik, to the southernmost point of Meghri on the Iranian border, was brimming with insights and insights.

Matthias Hespe, Stephan Malerius
July 27, 2023
Country reports
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The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung is a political foundation. Our offices abroad are in charge of over 200 projects in more than 120 countries. The country reports offer current analyses, exclusive evaluations, background information and forecasts - provided by our international staff.

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