The Sahel has become a geopolitical crossroad where instability and power struggles are reshaping the landscape. As the region faces escalating security challenges and significant political shifts, European actors have been compelled to reassess their strategies. This is exemplified by France’s phased military withdrawal and strategic pivot towards the Gulf of Guinea and English-speaking African countries; Germany’s military withdrawal from Niger; and the termination of MINUSMA and Task Force Takuba.
Looking ahead to 2040, the Sahel will continue to grapple with security threats, which are likely to be exacerbated by rapid population growth and climate vulnerabilities. As global competition intensifies, the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom must move beyond fragmented responses toward a coordinated, long-term strategy that addresses the root causes of instability. Europe must draw lessons from past interventions that underscore the need for proactive engagement and deeper collaboration with local and regional actors. Europe’s role in the region remains vital, but it must shift from a reactive stance to a forward-thinking approach that balances immediate security concerns with long-term development and governance objectives. The EU has made significant efforts, but its approach needs to be scaled up, more flexible, and better aligned with African-led solutions to enhance credibility.
This paper builds on insights from the “Cross-Perspectives from France, Germany and Europe: What Future for the Sahel?” webinar series , organized by the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) and the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS). The webinars explored three key themes: the potential for a Franco-German strategy in the Sahel, with experts Denis Tull (Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik) and Jonathan Guiffard (Institut Montaigne); the growing influence of new foreign actors in the region and its implications for Europe, with Nina Wilén (Egmont Institute) and Ulf Laessing (KAS); and Europe’s evolving role in the Sahel, with Anna Schmauder (Global Public Policy Institute), and independent researchers Beatriz de León Cobo and Anne Savey. Final reflections include the need for a unified European approach, better integration of local aspirations, stronger regional partnerships, a renewed communication strategy, more flexible cooperation mechanisms, and innovative strategies to address security, governance, and economic challenges.
