Fünf Jahre nach den Taliban

At the moment, five years after the expulsion of the Taliban, the future of Afghanistan is difficult to predict.The country is torn apart, and it seems that the help of the international community is no longer effective.The international community, for whom there is much at stake, must realize that neither a policy of the lowest common denominator nor chequebook diplomacy will lead to enduring success. Instead, what is needed is a policy which takes small steps one at a time. When the USA started to bomb Afghanistan in October 2001, it managed to defeat the Taliban in a few weeks, and the development of a democratic system could begin. Important steps were taken in the process of institutionalizing the state, and the parliamentary elections of 2005 marked the successful conclusion of the post-Bonn process. However, there are problems as well. The reputation of some of the members of the new parliament is tainted; the enormous heterogeneity of the House, in which not parties but individuals are epresented, affects the work of parliament and hampers the formation of alliances and coalitions. Moreover, the lack of democratic traditions in Afghanistan keeps parliament from fulfilling its basic functions. To the voter and even the Western observer, the votes of some Members of Parliament, for example, appear to be up for sale. And finally, only one fourth of the MPs arewomen – a deficit which is even more apparent in the cabinet. The step towards introducing democracy in substanceis one that Afghanistan will certainly have totake at some point in the future. Because of the deterioratingconditions in the country, calls for a hardbut just leadership are growing louder and louder.However, statehood, meaning security and a functioningbureaucracy in particular, does not yet exist inAfghanistan. Threatening the process of reconstruction,the desolate security situation in the HinduKush hardly permits considering the closing year asuccess.The military operations conducted in the Afghansouth in 2006 were by nomeans fruitful. At best, theyleft scorched earth behind, and the resistance of theTaliban claimed the lives of 160 foreign soldiers. InOctober of the same year, General David Richards,commander of the ISAF, gave to understand that70 percent of all Afghans would switch their loyaltyto the Taliban ifNATOdid not succeed in improvingthe country’s economy soon and sustainably.However, not only is the violent resistance of oppositionforces increasing, the number of terroristoutrages is growing aswell. Since the beginning of theyear, there have been more than 80 suicide attacks,some of them showing a new and alarming quality.The European Union’s special representative,Francesc Vendrell, showed concern about the securityof many European soldiers, and NATO’s SecretaryGeneral, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, referred toAfghanistan as ,NATO’s most important operation‘.Home-made bombs, occasionally exploded by theAfghans themselves, are used more and more frequently;bicycles and donkeys often become a deadlythreat. Once again, recruits are flocking to the oppositionforces, especially the Taliban, who instruct newcombatants in mobile training camps. It seems thatwithin the framework of the process of reconciliationand integration, Taliban cadres have returned to buildup new structures. And finally, the drug problem isstill unsolved: Compared to the previous year, theyield of raw opium has risen by 50 percent.All over the country, the security situation is growingmore acute, threatening especially educationwhich is so important for the future of Afghanistan:In the first half of the year alone, more than 200schools were destroyed by attacks. Because of the insecureliving conditions, people call for a new powerto impose sanctions. The suggestion to reintroducethe religious policemet with general approval – in thestreets as well as in politics. In the summer of 2006,even President Hamid Karzai supported the demandof a Muslim council to reappoint the vice squad,which under the Taliban had applied severe penaltiesto enforce the Sharia.Liberal forces, on the other hand, warn of fatal developmentslooming ahead. They talk about fundamentalismand extremism for which, according to thedemocratic parliamentarianAbdulKabir Ranjbar, thefloodgates have been opened, and about the religiouspolice which, once established, would be difficult toget rid of. The people hardly know what policemenand judges stand for.On the contrary – what they seeis corruption instead of security, and a state unable tofulfil its basic functions.The young democratic state is facing difficult tasksand hurdles. In 2006, it still showed enormousdeficits. Constant increases in the cost of living resultedin poverty. Furthermore, there are the streamsof refugees that, on the one hand, further exacerbatethe supply problem, and on the other, constitute anideal recruitment pool for radical forces. To meetthese challenges, great endeavours are needed on boththe Afghan and the international side. The fact is thatthe success of the old strategies and concepts is limited.International development cooperation inAfghanistan is still very uncoordinated. There are differentconcepts in the military and the civilian areathat need to be harmonized. While the Afghans demandmore and more independence in using theirfunds, the donors still think the country’s governmenttooweak tomanage the distribution of funds efficiently.What also needs to be corrected is the civilservicepay system, one case in point being that of theuniversity professor who works as a taxi driver tomend his wages.If cooperation is to be ,Afghanized‘, it is absolutelyessential that foreign forces get involved with the localpeople and their customs and consent to engagethemselves for a long time. Moreover, involvingAfghan authorities in the administration of the countrywould show the population that its own democraticallyelected state is quite capable of satisfying thefundamental needs of its citizens. In this context, awell-balanced personnel policy would be desirable.German development cooperation still concentrateson certain parts of the country, i.e. Kabul andthe north. If the Federal Republic intends to contributeto stabilizing the elected government, itwouldbe advisable to expand its engagement to other partsof the country, thus correcting the geographical imbalance.One possibilitywould be forGermany to resumeits activities in those regions inwhich itwas successfulyears ago and achieved a good reputation – i.e.in the Khost and Bakthiar provinces.One prerequisite for the overall success of Afghanistan’sreconstruction is the effective suppression ofthe drug economy. To be sure, gaining access to allthose regions of the country in which poppy is cultivatedis difficult even for a well-equipped policeforce. In this context, a successfully implementedmarket economy would be of great importance.However, it is indispensable that moderate mullahsand traditional religious and tribal leaders approvethe fight against the drug economy.In its Afghanistan concept presented in September2006, the Federal Government addressed many ofthese issues, concluding that there is no alternative tocontinuing Germany’s engagement in the country inthe Hindu Kush. Quite rightly, it pointed out thatAfghanistan is certainly not only a synonymfor ,messagesof doom and horror‘. Rather, as it emphasized,there are numerous positive developments and tendenciesthat do encourage further engagement.