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Short political reports of the KAS offices abroad

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IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

A new president for Lebanon in crisis

After more than two years of deadlock, the office of president has been filled again. The first step on a long road to state renewal?

Lebanon has a new president. With 99 out of 128 votes, Joseph Aoun, the former military commander-in-chief of the Lebanese army (LAF), was elected as the country's 14th president by the Lebanese parliament on 9 January. This was preceded by intensive international mediation efforts, diplomatic pressure and internal Lebanese debates on how and with whom the two-year-long vacancy in the presidential palace could be ended.

Michael Bauer
January 10, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / SOPA Images

A Window of Opportunity for Syria

After more than 50 years, the rule of the Assad family is coming to an end. This is cause for celebration. But Syria faces huge challenges.

The fall of the Assad regime was as sudden as it was swift. But after more than 13 years of civil war and in view of the complex regional environment, the political reorganisation of Syria is not going to be easy. A heterogeneous alliance of partly jihadist rebels will have to organise the political transition and involve the relevant stakeholders in the process. There is a great sense of optimism in the country, but this is mixed with concerns about revenge and renewed conflict.

Michael Bauer
December 10, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / Pond5 Images

European assistance for crisis-ridden Lebanon

Lebanese and international criticism of the EU's new aid package is exaggerated

The EU's new support program for Lebanon expands on its previous commitment to the cedar state. In addition to supporting the provision of basic services (health, education, etc.) for people in need, the EU also wants to focus more on security and migration management. Since the agreement was widely portrayed in Europe and Lebanon as a kind of “refugee deal” to keep migrations away from European shores, the offer was met with rejection in Lebanon's heated domestic political climate. The country considers itself overwhelmed by the presence of 1.5 million Syrian refugees. If the program is implemented properly, it can help Lebanon deal with its economic and social problems and contributes to the strengthening of the Lebanese Armed Forces, one of the few still functioning governmental institutions.

Michael Bauer
May 15, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / Xinhua

Regional normalisation – Syrian perspectives

Turkish and Arab attempts to establish a new foundation for their relationship with Syria are viewed with concern especially in areas outside of the regime’s control.

Both the Arab League and Turkey have initiated a process of normalizing ties with the Syrian regime: While the Arab track, led by Saudi Arabia, has received wide international attention and media coverage, in Syria itself the Turkish efforts are monitored much more closely due to Turkey’s active role in Syrian political and security affairs. Yet, as of now, none of the two initiatives have achieved any significant progress, which can mainly be attribute to the Assad regime’s unwillingness to make any concessions. Nonetheless, non-state actors in Northern Syria remain apprehensive. Furthermore, amidst an ever-worsening economic crisis in Syria, unrest and demonstrations are also flawing up in regime-held territories.

Michael Bauer
September 13, 2023
Country reports

Parlamentswahlen im Libanon: Lehren und Entwicklungsszenarien

Die Wahlergebnisse spiegeln den Wunsch der Menschen im Libanon nach Reformen wider. Werden sie diese auch bekommen?

Die Parlamentswahlen im Libanon haben für einige Überraschungen gesorgt. Die Mehrheit des Parteienblocks um die Hisbollah ist gebrochen. Der Rückzug des mehrmaligen Premiers Saad Hariri und seiner Partei Future Movement hat darüber hinaus zu einer Demobilisierung der sunnitischen Wähler geführt. Neue sowie etablierte Oppositionskräfte und unabhängige Kandidaten gehen indes gestärkt aus den Wahlen hervor. Nun stellt sich die Frage, ob es der fragmentierten Opposition gelingt, eine Allianz zu formen, die personelle und inhaltliche Alternativen anbietet, ob es zu einer Art Einheitsregierung kommt oder ob das Land in einer politischen Paralyse verharrt.

Michael Bauer
June 1, 2022
Country reports
dpa picture alliance / Hans Lucas, Victoria C. Werling

Zwei Jahre Revolution: viel Krise, wenig Hoffnung

Trotz einer neuen Regierung kämpft der Libanon mit alten Problemen und die Sorge vor Gewalt wächst. Wie steht es um die Aussicht auf politischen Wandel?

Am 17. Oktober 2021 jährte sich die libanesische „Thawra“, der Ausbruch von Massenprotesten, zum zweiten Mal. Wenig hat sich seitdem zum Besseren gewendet. Die Hoffnung auf einen grundsätzlichen politischen Systemwechsel hat sich weitgehend zerschlagen. Das Land befindet sich in einer dramatischen wirtschaftlichen Krise. Die Eliten, die durch Jahrzehnte politischen Missmanagements und Korruption für die Probleme verantwortlich zeichnen, scheinen nach wie vor fest im Sattel zu sitzen. Bewaffnete Auseinandersetzungen am Rande von Protesten in Beirut haben jüngst in Erinnerung gerufen, wie fragil auch die Sicherheitslage ist. Nur wenn es der zersplitterten Protestbewegung gelingt, sich entlang politischer Programmatik zu organisieren, hat sie vor dem Hintergrund der angespannten Lage eine Chance, im politischen System zu bestehen.

Michael Bauer
October 18, 2021
Country reports
Konstantin Rintelmann

Die Protestkultur im Libanon

Libanons Sonderweg seit dem Ausbruch des Arabischen Frühlings

Während sich ab Ende 2010 in seinen Nachbarländern der Reihe nach Massenproteste anbahnten, die zum Teil auch schnell eine gewaltsame Dimension annahmen, blieb es im Libanon verhältnismäßig ruhig. Über das Jahr 2011 hinweg kam es lediglich vereinzelt zu kleineren Protesten, die in ihrem Versuch, auf der Grundlage einer nationalen, konfessionsübergreifenden Kampagne politischen Druck gegenüber der Regierung aufzubauen, eher homogen in Bildungsstand und Herkunft blieben. Zu einer landesweiten und inklusiven Massenmobilisierung sollte es im Libanon erst 2019 kommen.

Dr. Malte Gaier, Valentina von Finckenstein
December 16, 2020
Country reports

One crisis too many

State bankruptcy and COVID-19 combine to form a toxic catalyst in Lebanon

For the first time in its history, Lebanon has defaulted - and loses its spotless record of its crisis-resistant solvency. The banking system, a pillar of the Lebanese economy, has begun to totter since the nationwide protests of October 17. The ailing economic system was dragged along for years and kept alive by highly irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies. The COVID-19 outbreak will deal the desolate economy an additional blow, with far reaching consequences that we can only imagine at this point.

Valentina von Finckenstein
April 14, 2020
Country reports
Konstantin Rintelmann

Political paralysis at the brink of an economic collapse

The immense challenges for Lebanon grow with its political inability to act

The killing of the Iranian General Qassem Soleimani complicates the already stagnating formation of a government in Lebanon that has been pending for months. Hassan Diab is struggling with considerable domestic hurdles, but seems nevertheless determined not to step down. Political leadership is urgently needed: not only to implement economic reforms, but also in view of regional tensions. At the same Lebanon is sliding further into an economic crisis, the sheer scale of which politicians are only now beginning to understand. The failure of the central bank and politicians to mitigate the pervasive uncertainty by clear communication has severely damaged confidence in the currency, banks and financial system.

Valentina von Finckenstein
January 17, 2020
Country reports
Tim Bloomquist / flickr / CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

Erschütterung des libanesischen Machtfundaments

Wohin steuern die jüngsten Massenproteste den Libanon?

Aus einer spontanen Protestansammlung, wie sie in den letzten Wochen im Libanon verstärkt auftrat, entwickelten sich am Abend des 17.10.2019 innerhalb weniger Stunden die möglicherweise größten Proteste, die das Land in seiner jüngeren Geschichte erlebt hat.

Dr. Malte Gaier, Valentina von Finckenstein, Fatma Khanjar
October 24, 2019
Country reports
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The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung is a political foundation. Our offices abroad are in charge of over 200 projects in more than 120 countries. The country reports offer current analyses, exclusive evaluations, background information and forecasts - provided by our international staff.

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