Navigating External Influences in the Mediterranean: Strategic Imperatives for the EU

The Mediterranean, a vital crossroads of trade, culture, and geopolitics, has long held immense strategic value for the European Union (EU). As a bridge linking Europe with Asia and Africa, it is central to global commerce, energy security, and regional stability. However, in recent years, this once-dominant region has become increasingly contested, with a growing presence of external actors seeking to assert their influence. Powers such as China, Russia, Iran, the United States, and key Gulf states have intensified their engagement, challenging the EU's traditional leadership in the area. In this evolving geopolitical landscape, the EU must act decisively, leveraging diplomacy, economic partnerships, and innovative solutions to safeguard its interests and reinforce its role as the anchor of stability in the Mediterranean.

Rising External Powers: A Shifting Geopolitical Landscape

The Mediterranean’s strategic importance has drawn a diverse range of external actors, reshaping the region’s geopolitical dynamics. China, Russia, Iran, and the Gulf States—alongside NATO allies like the United States and Turkey—have significantly expanded their influence in the region. This growing external engagement has created what is often described as the "EU action deficit," where the EU’s ability to counterbalance competing global interests has lagged behind.

As a result, external powers are increasingly shaping the region’s future, potentially undermining the EU's long-standing political and economic influence. The challenge for the EU is clear: to effectively navigate this evolving landscape, it must adopt a proactive and action-oriented strategy. The EU must not only reaffirm its geopolitical presence in the Mediterranean but also engage more deeply with Mediterranean nations through a forward-thinking approach that fosters cooperation on trade, security, energy, and conflict resolution. A sustained, multi-layered strategy will be essential for ensuring the EU’s long-term interests in the Mediterranean.

China’s Strategic Footprint: Leveraging the Belt and Road Initiative

China’s growing footprint in the Mediterranean, driven by its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), poses a significant challenge to the EU’s economic and geopolitical influence in the region. Through large-scale investments in  infrastructure—such as the Port of Piraeus in Greece and various partnerships in Italy and other Mediterranean nations—China is reconfiguring the economic landscape.

These initiatives offer economic opportunities but also introduce risks of political dependency, as Mediterranean countries may become increasingly reliant on Chinese capital and influence.

To counter this, the EU must offer sustainable, long-term alternatives to Chinese investments. The EU’s strength lies in its regulatory expertise, technological capabilities, and commitment to sustainability. By prioritizing green energy projects, enhancing infrastructure connectivity, and offering transparent investment models, the EU can present itself as a more balanced and reliable partner for Mediterranean countries.

This will not only help mitigate the risks of Chinese influence but also reinforce the EU’s position as the region’s primary economic and geopolitical force.

Russia’s Strategic Interests: Navigating Energy and Geopolitics

Russia’s increasing engagement in the Mediterranean has been driven by both strategic geopolitical interests and its energy ambitions. Moscow’s support for the Assad regime in Syria, its naval bases in Tartus and Latakia, and its involvement in the Libyan conflict had given it a foothold in the region. This leverage has in large measure disappeared due the fall of the Assad regime and Russia having to evacuate its military bases and troops. Russia is supporting the Hafter camp in the divided Libya which provides another bases for its power projection in Libya, Mediterranean and beyond in Africa.

Meanwhile, Russia’s energy projects, such as the TurkStream pipeline, which  supplies natural gas to Turkey and Europe, have strengthened its leverage over Mediterranean countries. Russia has been building nuclear power plants in Turkey and Egypt and plans to do more via Rosatom in the Mediterranean region. The EU faces the challenge of balancing its cooperation with Russia on shared concerns—such as energy security and counterterrorism—while addressing the destabilizing effects of Russia’s actions in the region. However, the EU should not merely react to Russia’s influence; it must strategically engage Russia through diplomatic initiatives aimed at de-escalating tensions and reconstruction, particularly in Libya and Syria.

At the same time, it must work with regional partners, particularly Turkey, to mitigate Russia’s destabilizing presence and ensure that Mediterranean countries are not caught in the crossfire of competing geopolitical interests.

Iran’s Declining Influence: Focus on Regional Stability

Iran’s influence in the Mediterranean, once significant through its proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, has been substantially weakened in recent years. Israeli military operations have severely impacted Iran’s operational capacity in Syria, while the downfall of the Assad regime, combined with Russia’s withdrawal from Syria, has further diminished Tehran’s regional power. In Lebanon, Hezbollah’s activities have been significantly curtailed, and Iran’s role as a regional threat is less pronounced than it once was. Although Iran’s influence has waned, the EU must remain vigilant. A comprehensive regional security strategy is essential, one that continues to monitor any residual Iranian presence in Syria and Lebanon while fostering cooperation among regional actors like Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. By prioritizing diplomatic engagement and conflict resolution in Syria and Lebanon, the EU can ensure that Iran’s influence does not resurge, while also promoting broader regional stability and peace.

The Gulf States: Catalysts for Regional Cooperation

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have emerged as key players in Mediterranean geopolitics, especially in countries like Libya, Egypt, and Syria. While they remain neutral in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, their political and economic power has positioned them as essential actors in the region. The Gulf states’shared interest in curbing Iran’s influence has driven their increased involvement in Mediterranean affairs, where they have invested both diplomatically and financially in regional conflicts. For the EU, strengthening ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE is not only a strategic necessity but also an opportunity to foster greater cooperation on issues of mutual interest, including counterterrorism, economic development, and regional stability. The EU must engage these Gulf states as partners in promoting a stable and secure Mediterranean, working together on initiatives that address both short-term security threats and long-term economic and political challenges.

Turkey’s Strategic Role: A Key Partner for Stability and Security

Turkey’s role in the Mediterranean is undeniably crucial. Positioned at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, Turkey holds strategic control over key maritime routes and energy transit corridors. Its geopolitical importance, combined with its growing role in energy security and regional diplomacy, makes Turkey an indispensable partner for the EU. To effectively address regional challenges, the EU must prioritize deeper engagement with Turkey, focusing on areas of mutual interest such as energy security, conflict resolution, and migration management. This engagement should include accelerating Turkey’s EU accession process, modernizing the Customs Union, and ensuring cooperation on pressing regional issues, particularly in the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey’s involvement in territorial disputes, such as those over Cyprus, will require delicate diplomacy, but by acknowledging Turkey’s interests and concerns, the EU can reduce tensions and foster greater stability in the region. Turkey’s strategic location also offers significant opportunities for energy collaboration. The EU and Turkey should work together on joint energy projects, particularly in the fields of renewable energy and infrastructure development. This partnership would create a more interconnected Mediterranean energy market, enhancing energy security and promoting sustainable energy solutions for all countries in the region. It is likely that Donald Trump in its second term will further empower Turkey in the Middle East and Mediterranean alongside Israel, Egypt and Greece for its strategic ambitions.

A New Mediterranean Energy Platform: Building a Sustainable Future

The Mediterranean faces a growing need for an inclusive and dynamic energy  strategy that addresses both regional energy security and sustainability challenges. Current initiatives, such as the East Mediterranean Gas Forum, have made significant progress, but the region requires a more comprehensive and coordinated approach. A Mediterranean Energy Platform must be established to foster regional cooperation on energy, sustainability, and climate change. This platform should focus on:

1. Renewable Energy and the Green Transition: Prioritize investments in solar, wind, and geothermal energy sources to align with the EU’s Green Deal and offer a sustainable energy future for the region.
2. Energy Efficiency and Technological Innovation: Invest in cutting-edge technologies, such as smart grids and hydrogen production, to create an interconnected and resilient Mediterranean energy network.
3. Infrastructure Development: Facilitate cross-border investments in energy infrastructure, including electricity grids, energy storage, and renewable energy hubs, to improve regional integration and economic resilience.
4. Energy Security: Secure key energy transit routes, such as pipelines and maritime shipping lanes, to guarantee uninterrupted energy flows and safeguard strategic energy chokepoints. Also protection of critical energy infrastructure in partnership with NATO.
5. Human Capital Development: Empower local communities by promoting  education and skills training in the energy sector, ensuring long-term, sustainable development and fostering regional collaboration.

Strategic Recommendations for the EU’s Future Role

In light of the rapidly shifting geopolitical and energy dynamics in the Mediterranean, the EU must adopt a bold, proactive strategy to secure its interests and promote long-term stability in the region. Key recommendations include:

• Invest in renewable energy: Establish a Mediterranean Renewable Energy Fund to drive the green transition and enhance energy security across the region.
• Strengthen partnerships: Engage more deeply with regional players like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to build a cohesive strategy for counterbalancing external powers and promoting regional stability.
• Develop a Mediterranean Energy Platform: Create a comprehensive, cooperative framework for energy cooperation, focused on innovation, sustainability, and infrastructure development.
• Promote regional peace and conflict resolution: Invest in diplomatic efforts to resolve ongoing conflicts in Syria, Libya, and Lebanon, fostering long-term reconstruction, peace and stability in the region.

By implementing these recommendations, the EU can reassert its leadership in the Mediterranean, transforming the region into a model of sustainability, prosperity, and stability in the years to come so that external powers’ intervention and influence can possibly be diminished. Now is the time for the EU to act decisively, harnessing its diplomatic, economic, and technological strengths to shape a future where the Mediterranean remains a cornerstone of global cooperation and security.