Climate Change and Geopolitical Dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa

As new edition of the KAS-REMENA Policy Paper Series, the comprehensive policy paper "Climate Change and Geopolitical Dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa: Navigating Challenges and Opportunities for Regional Security”, delves into the intricate and multifaceted impacts of climate change on the MENA region's security and stability. The policy paper is based on discussions during a closed-door workshop titled "Geopolitics of Climate Change in the Middle East and North Africa”, which brought together security and climate experts to assess climate-related vulnerabilities and their implications for regional stability.

Climate change is compounding the already complex set of challenges and geopolitical dynamics in the MENA region. The policy paper highlights how climate change impacts, such as rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events, exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. These environmental changes have direct and indirect implications for the region's security, affecting political, social, and economic dimensions. The paper underscores that while climate change is not often a direct cause of conflicts, it acts as a contributing factor, influencing resource competition, political instability, and social unrest.

To address the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change, the policy paper provides several recommendations. Successful climate strategies require an inclusive approach that combines political will, economic interest, and social acceptance. It is thus crucial to involve multiple stakeholders, including political leaders, economic actors, and local communities, in the planning and implementation of climate actions. The paper also highlights the importance of fostering cooperation among MENA countries to address shared challenges. This includes exploring opportunities for collaboration in areas such as trade in foodstuffs and energy-water-exchange partnerships. The authors, moreover, point to the need for increased investments in climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. High-income countries in the Gulf, for instance, have the financial capacity to invest in water security, climate adaptation, and energy transition. Middle-income countries, like Morocco, are also making significant strides in these areas. Fragile and conflict-affected countries will need support to build their resilience.

Effective communication strategies are essential to raise awareness and garner public support for climate actions. The paper advocates for traditional and social media campaigns to influence public discourse on climate transition and to harmonize narratives with actions. Regarding the question of migration, climate change is driving displacement in the MENA region, raising concerns about the stability of host and transit countries. The paper stresses the need to address human security challenges, such as poverty, hunger, and political violence, which are exacerbated by climate impacts.

The policy paper offers a comprehensive analysis of the region's climate-related challenges and provides actionable recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders. By fostering a better understanding of climate impacts and promoting collaborative approaches, the paper aims to guide more adept policymaking and enhance the resilience and stability of the MENA region.