After the European elections in Poland

Back on the European stage

Prime Minister Donald Tusk triumphed on the evening of the European elections. In the exit polls, the Civic Coalition (KO)^[1] was clearly ahead of Jarosław Kaczyński's Law and Justice (PiS) party. In this hour, Tusk spoke with pathos "We are a beacon of hope for Europe. We are leaders in the European Union". He explicitly recalled that in countries such as Germany and France, the established parties had fared much worse. By this time, it had already become apparent that in France, Marine Le Pen's Eurosceptic Rassemblement National had won the EU elections, prompting President Emmanuel Macron to dissolve parliament. In Germany, meanwhile, the AfD overtook the SPD, which leads the governing coalition as the largest party.

 The vote therefore showed that voters' trust in the governments in Paris and Berlin has fallen. Tusk, on the other hand, acted as if he believed that the Polish Civic Platform was the last hope of euro enthusiasts in the Union. He will probably want to use this success in the current negotiations to fill key positions in the European Union. Tusk has become one of the European People's Party's chief negotiators. He will certainly want to strengthen his party's position in the EPP family and exert more influence on events in Brussels. Tusk once again spoke out in favor of Ursula von der Leyen as head of the European Commission. There is also speculation that a Pole could be appointed to the post of Commissioner for Defense. We do not know how the negotiations will turn out at the moment, but the fact that the Polish Prime Minister is leading them as the representative of the largest political group in the European Parliament says a lot about his position among the European statesmen.

This makes him fundamentally different from his predecessors. The PiS-led government had maneuvered itself into the European sidelines by implementing controversial reforms, including in the judiciary. These reforms were viewed by the EU as a violation of the rule of law and led to Poland being deprived of European funds. It was not until the end of 2023 that the EU Commission approved funding from the European Corona Reconstruction Fund. This eased the situation in a long-running dispute between Warsaw and Brussels and the newly elected Prime Minister Tusk was able to present himself as a doer who released money from the EU. Tusk is regarded as an experienced politician, both in Polish and European politics. He was already Poland's head of government and President of the European Council from 2014 to 2019, as well as Chairman of the EPP until 2021, when he returned to Polish politics. He is therefore well acquainted with the meanderings of European politics and has the skills and knowledge to achieve his goals. Foreign policy should also play a prominent role in the government's communication with Polish society. 

One of the most important election slogans with which the KO won the last parliamentary elections was "back to Europe". This must mean a much more active European policy. Tusk needs visible successes in this area, especially as the budget, which has been stretched to the limit, will not allow all other election promises to be fulfilled quickly, although the electorate's expectations of the government are very high.

All of this suggests that Poland's government under Tusk is back in the European game and has ambitions to play in the premier league of major European players.

The outcome of the European elections is also important for the further development of the domestic balance of power. Although the final result deviated slightly from the polls and the KO's lead shrank, Tusk's party retained its leading position for the first time in ten years. This had a symbolic meaning. A series of PiS election victories came to an end. Voters often take their cue from the winner, which could lead to a further increase in support for Tusk's party in the short and medium term. This is not insignificant, especially as presidential elections are due in mid-2025. The current, pro-PiS President Andrzej Duda has announced that he will use his veto if the current liberal-democratic parliamentary majority attempts to reverse the reforms introduced by his party colleagues' previous government. A victory in next year's presidential elections would certainly increase the government's room for maneuver - also with regard to foreign and European policy.

^[1] The Civic Coalition is an electoral alliance led by the Civic Platform (PO) under Donald Tusk.

The full-length publication is only available in german.