1. José Antonio, we are very relieved that you have been released after 19 long months . When did you learn about your release and the conditions for your release?
On Wednesday, February 8, at 11:00 p.m., the guards of the investigative prison (Chipote Nuevo Prison) came to exchange our prison clothes for zi vil clothes that they had asked our family members for at the end of De cember. There had never been anything like this before and it was an un deceptive sign that something strange was going on, but no one really knew what. We immediately sensed that there could only be four possibilities: 1.) That our Ge prisoner status was going to be changed and we were going to be transferred home to serve our sentence. 2.) That we should be taken to a public meeting in some government building where we would be told of the dictator's pardon or magnanimous amnesty. 3.) That we should be transferred to the "Modelo" prison with the ordinary prisoners. 4) Or that we should be transferred to a friendly country that had agreed to take us in : Chile, Mexico, Colombia, Costa Rica or the United States (this was the least likely option, but still possible).
They took all the prisoners out of the cells and brought us to one level, where they concentrated all the male prisoners in several cells (about 15 ge prisoners per cell). All the female prisoners were concentrated on another level. Then we waited there for about an hour and a half. After that, cell by cell, we went to the buses waiting in front of the prison (the windows of the buses were covered with dark cloth). Afterwards, all the buses drove in a column guarded by dozens of policemen towards the center of Mana gua. As we were already driving through the streets, we still did not know where we were going. We were full of uncertainty.
We hoped to find out where the convoy was going, and in fact the possibilities were reduced to three: 1.) Either to a public meeting at the House of the People (the former presidential building). 2.) To the flight ha fen. 3.) After the column headed north, there were only two possibilities lich : Either it went to the prison "Modelo" or to the airport.
When we finally passed the Nicaraguan Air Force facilities, the convoy turned right and reached the runway of the Nicaraguan airport. There we knew that our fate had been decided: we were to be sent into exile. A plane was waiting on the tarmac to take us to the United States. We learned from a National Police official that it was going to the United States. At the foot of the passenger stairs, officials from the U.S. Embassy and State Department presented us with new passports so that we could leave.
2. As a political scientist, you have not only analyzed political developments ana ly, but have also been politically active. What does the revocation of your citizenship mean to you? Do you have any hope that this situation can be reversed?
As someone who knows the tragic history of Nicaragua, I knew that sooner or later the dik tatorial state would take action against us. What we didn't know was how it would do it. The truth is that even in the most aberwit cient analyses, one could never imagine what repressive measures would be taken. The regime far exceeded what we had thought possible . We never imagined that all presidential candidates, all pro minent dissidents and all those who dared to make statements critical of the regime would be arrested.
The revocation of citizenship can therefore only be understood as a mechanism of the dictatorship to punish political and civic dissidence that dares to question it. Specifically, the regime intends to use this unconstitutional and illegal means to politically repress its opponents, even going so far as to confiscate their property.
They use the accusation of undermining the integrity of the state to accuse any Wi of sacher as "traitors to the fatherland." This is an ambiguous and scurrilous use of laws created to violate the human rights of citizens ger. These are laws formulated according to their own good thumbs and used against anyone who dares to challenge the re gime. The warning of the United Nations High Commissioner, Michelle Bache let, who pointed out that such laws are always ultimately used as a means of political repression against political opponents, has been fully borne out.
3. In your opinion, what could be the reasons for the regime's decision to release the prisoners and send them to the United States? Why was the United States chosen as the destination?
The main reason for the release of the political prisoners was the internatio nal campaign for their freedom. What started as a weak demand developed into a regional and worldwide demand against a regime that refused to release po litical prisoners accused of absurd crimes.
The campaign forced the regime to realize that it had to pay a very high political price nationally and internationally for imprisoning political prisoners. Moreover, the regime wanted to trade the political prisoners for tranquility in order to be able to govern until the next presidential elections (2026) . In other words, it wanted to buy the political calm and tolerance of the inter national community, especially the United States and the Euro pean Union, toward a dictatorial regime.
Then, when they saw that no one would accept this blackmail and that they could not bring about a negotiation process that would give them peace, they decided to release the political prisoners. Further imprisonment would have caused them more problems than solutions.
The regime chose to send the prisoners to the United States because this was the country that had strongly supported freedom for political fan genies and an immediate return to democracy.
The United States has always been willing to assume the costs and obligations resulting from the transfer of 222 Nicaraguan per sons to the United States. Moreover, it was in the regime's interest to show that it was the United States that acted and cared for the political prisoners . This also fits into the regime's discourse that political prisoners are La kaien of the empire and that it was the U.S. that had encouraged the coup plotters to overthrow the "legitimate" Nicaraguan government. This political logic is behind the decision to release the political prisoners .
4. In this context, how do you assess the actions of the international community and was it able to influence the decision of the Ortega-Murillo regime? How effective was the international pressure in this case and in general in relation to the complex situation in which your country finds itself today?
In general, the actions of the international community in support of the freedom of po litical prisoners and the need to establish a democratic order have been very decisive. In particular, the United States and the European Union have been very clear about the need to hold free elections and to begin a process of democratic transition. In addition to these countries, Canada and most Latin American countries have also moved in the same direction.
In the Organization of American States (OAS), the voices in favor of respect for human rights, free elections, a democratic transition and respect for democratic institutions have always been in the majority. This democratic bloc, which opposed the establishment of the dictatorship, put Ortega's regime in its place, preventing it from expanding its assaults against the oppo sition, citizens and institutions. Without this counterweight, Ortega would likely not have limited himself in his dictatorial aspirations. The rejection of his totalitarian and dictatorial aspirations by almost all countries of the Americas and Europe forced Ortega to seek spaces for dia log and to release political prisoners.
However, the effectiveness of the international community's actions has been hampered by the limited means that can be used against Ortega without harming the majority of the Nicaraguan people. Therein lies the weakness of the international community in influencing and changing political conditions. Ortega knows that the community of de mocratic nations will not impose sanctions that would then affect the entire Nicaraguan be völke rung.
Most sanctions have been imposed on individuals, not the ni Caraguan economy. While these sanctions affect those close to Ortega, they are not effective enough to stop the regime's dictatorial course, as it controls all sectors and institutions of the state.
Ortega has his repressive and institutional apparatus fairly well under control. However, he cannot deny that there have been significant numbers of defections since April 18, 2018. Undoubtedly, stronger action by the United States, the European Union, and the international community would put pressure on his government, but also on the country. However, this would lead to a profound deterioration in the living standards of the majority of Nicara guans, which would then again trigger an even greater exodus than the current one of thousands of Nicaraguans who would go in search of better living opportunities.
5. There has been speculation that the release of political prisoners is a sign of the Nicaraguan government's weakness. How consolidated do you see the Or tega-Murillo regime?
Ortega always used the political prisoners as bargaining chips se . He wanted to trade the freedom of political prisoners for breathing space for his regime. He thought he would succeed in silencing critical voices by releasing the prisoners, enacting electoral reform and giving some seats in the institutions to the opposition. He thought he could thus finish his term from 2022 to 2027 in relative peace.
But the news for him is bad. Nationally and internationally, there seems to be a consensus that, at least at the diplomatic level, there is no after sight for his dictatorial rudeness. He will have to make greater concessions to the Nicaraguan opposition and the international community. A prosperous and stable Nicaragua is not possible without democracy . This linkage is the be-all and end-all of the equation-not just for Nicaragua, but for all of Central America.
6. Your compatriot Bishop Álvarez is still imprisoned in Nicaragua along with other political prisoners. What can the international community do to secure his release?
The imprisonment of Bishop Álvarez is a symbol of Ortega's inability to rebuild alliances in terne. As in the 1980s, Ortega has again broken with all representatives of de facto power: the large private sector, the ca tholic Church, and the United States. In other words, since coming to power, his dictatorial aspirations have led him to make the same mistakes of the past: Repression, lack of freedoms, electoral fraud, imprisonment of opponents, and so on. Even worse, he has surpassed the excesses of the last century by committing crimes against human ity, silencing internal opposition, confiscating property for repres sion purposes, and stripping Nicaraguan citizenship from any opponent he sees as a threat to his absolute hegemony.
7. What could a path to a return to democracy and the rule of law look like in Ni cara gua? Do you hold to this vision?
A return to the rule of law and democracy is not possible with Ortega and his followers. In this century, Ortega's vision is incompatible with that of the forces advocating democracy. There is no future with Ortega.
In Nicaragua, there is either it (the past) or democracy (the future). Democracy is the only option that can build a more stable and democratic society. Ortega is old, the image of the idealistic young man nes who defeated the dictatorship no longer exists. It has long since disappeared and he has become much worse than what he defeated. With him, Nicaragua has remained like a stationary bicycle - like an exercise bike. You make a great effort, but you remain in the same place in history. This is Ortega, a showcase of the past, who, on his whim to die in power and pass it on to his descendants, denies modernity to his people.
8. How do you envision the "day after" when Nicaragua returns to the path of democracy?
Nicaragua is a cyclical and repetitive country. Therefore, the changes will come when least expected. When everything seems to be under control and calm, it turns out that nothing was under control, that watery rivers flowed under the surface denying the fictitious external reality. Ge rade when Ortega thought he was at the zenith of his power and would rule without opposition came the April 2018 quake. The revolt shattered his dreams of greatness and stability of the dictatorship. So that will be the end of Ortega. If he believes he has trolled the April uprising at Kon , his end will come. What will that end look like? We do not know, but we can guess. His mistakes are piling up and sooner or later the end will come.
The "day after" will be the awakening from a bad dream that will give us neither peace nor stability. On that day, we will realize - again ken - that we have wasted precious time and that we must redouble our efforts to truly change Nicaragua. That we are back at the beginning and that all the important tasks still need to be done. But we will finally realize that men like Ortega, with all their diatribes about modernity, have done great damage to the country. We will realize that we were immovably anchored with him and his group on a stationary wheel, and that despite all our sweaty efforts, we did not get much further . So the great and bright Nicaragua is not in the past heit, but in the future, which we have to work hard to achieve in this century.
Thank you José Antonio, we wish you good luck in all your endeavors!
