‘Behind every great economic power there is also a demographic power’, wrote Josef Schmid, the first holder of a German chair in demography, back in 1999. The well-known quote from French philosopher Auguste Comte ‘Demography is destiny’ also testifies to the importance of demographic developments for the future of a country. However, more and more countries around the world, including the major powers, are being affected by demographic change - the ageing of their societies.

Does the shrinking and ageing of a society inevitably lead to a ‘decline’ in the sense of a loss of power on the global stage and does a growing population predict an increase in a country's importance? How do different countries around the world deal with the challenges of demographic change and what impact does this have on their position in the global power structure? How does the demographic factor influence the status of a great power?

To answer these questions, the following analysis examines the demographic situation in the USA and China, which are regarded as great powers, in imperialist Russia and in Japan, the country with the highest average age in the world. In addition, we look at the demographic development and how it is dealt with in the middle powers India, Mexico and Nigeria, whose populations are (still) growing and which are mostly neutral in the geopolitical field of tension. This comparative analysis of economic, security and social factors in countries with different demographic developments and political systems enables a broad international view of the connections between demographic change and the global power structure.

There are clear indications that in autocratic states, demographic-related domestic challenges tend to be neglected in favour of geopolitical and power-political ambitions. However, focussing on the needs of their own ageing society can have a positive impact on their position in the international power structure in the long term.

Read the full Monitor ‘The bigger, the more powerful? Why human capital counts in order to assert oneself in the global power structure’ here as a PDF.