The aging of society poses major challenges not only to the social security systems, but also to local authorities. Forecasts by the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development show that urban areas will continue to grow until 2045, while many peripheral regions will experience a significant loss of population. Rural areas in eastern Germany are particularly affected, coming under increasing pressure from the out-migration of young people and economic bottlenecks. Scientists warn that these structurally weak regions will become increasingly desolate as public services such as hospitals and schools close and infrastructure deteriorates. In this context, a controversial recommendation based on economic considerations is that investments should be concentrated on urban areas, while economically weaker municipalities should be left to their own devices or abandoned. In the debate about the future of "left behind" regions and the creation of equal living conditions in Germany, the main question is where regional imbalances are pronounced and which measures can help to reduce them in a sustainable manner.
People's life satisfaction is significantly influenced by location factors such as the availability of jobs, economic dynamism, good infrastructure and care services. While in the past the focus was primarily on the contrast between East and West and between city and country, recent studies show that the differences today are increasingly between economically prosperous and structurally weak regions. The 2024 Happiness Atlas confirms this trend: In economically strong regions, the level of satisfaction is significantly higher than in regions with a stagnating or shrinking economy. While cities such as Leipzig or Chemnitz are becoming more attractive, many rural areas continue to shrink. Medium-sized towns in structurally weak regions, which offer neither the advantages of rural areas nor those of a large city, have a particularly low levels of life satisfaction.
What is the future of German municipalities in cities, rural areas, East and West? The following analysis evaluates recent studies to shed light on which factors influence the attractiveness of urban and rural regions and what role demographic change plays in this. Finally, measures to promote the future viability of structurally weak and aging regions are discussed.
