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IMAGO / Herrmann Agenturfotografie

Rule of law in South-East Europe: Highlights in 2024

A review of developments in South-East Europe over the past year

In South-East Europe, some countries have made progress in the rule of law over the past year, while others have also experienced setbacks, which illustrates the many challenges in the region. The latest Rule of Law Index from the World Justice Project (WJP), among others, shows a mixed picture: Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as Montenegro are characterised by improved scores, particularly in the fight against corruption. North Macedonia also recorded an increase in its overall score, which indicates positive developments in various areas. Croatia and Serbia, on the other hand, saw a decline in their rule of law scores, in particular due to the restriction of fundamental rights and the faltering fight against corruption. On their way into the European Union (EU), the candidate countries showed a commitment to harmonising with EU standards, but persistent problems in the judiciary, difficulties in the fight against corruption and political instability hindered development. The three South-East European EU member states faced similar challenges. Political polarisation, the independence and effectiveness of the judiciary and interference in media and press freedom remain a challenge in all South-East European countries.

Dr. Pavel Usvatov, Dr. Mahir Muharemović, Alina Monceanu
February 10, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / Agencia Prensa-Independiente

No Clear Winner in Ecuador's Elections

Political Polarization Persists Ahead of Runoff

After the election is before the election – this could describe the political situation in Ecuador after the tight first round of the presidential election. President Daniel Noboa and his left-populist challenger Luisa González will face off once again on April 13, 2025, in an open runoff. In particular, two fundamentally opposing political projects are up for decision, not least in foreign policy. Whereas a Noboa government would further align Ecuador with the west, a victory for Luisa González would mean a strengthened alliance with the region´s left-wing regimes as well as with Russia and China.

Johannes Hügel
February 10, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / NurPhoto

Georgian Knot: Local Repressions and International Isolation

For weeks, Georgia has been caught in a destructive cycle of protests and repression, isolating the country on the international stage.

Even after nearly 70 days of continuous protests, the de facto government of Georgia—controlled by oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili—remains unyielding. However, instead of the brutal crackdowns seen at the start of the demonstrations, authorities are now resorting to targeted intimidation and repression against individuals. The cases of Msia Amaghlobeli and Giorgi Gacharia starkly illustrate how the rule of law in Georgia has collapsed in recent months. Internationally, the country is increasingly isolated. Recent diplomatic visits by the new government leadership to neighboring Azerbaijan and Armenia highlight that Georgia’s path to Europe remains blocked under the rule of the Georgian Dream party.

Stephan Malerius, Florian Binder
February 5, 2025
Country reports
Imago / Belga

Belgium has a new government

A colourful coalition after 234 days of negotiations

“Alea iacta est - the die is cast” - announced Bart De Wever, the leader of the Flemish Nationalists (N-VA) and Belgium's new Prime Minister, on 31 January late in the evening on the platform X. The new government was thus sealed after months of tough negotiations. The former “Vivaldi” government was replaced by the “Arizona” coalition - named after the colours of the parties that make up the coalition. This is the first time in Belgium's history that a N-VA politician has taken on government responsibility, but in view of the coalition's composition, a dramatic shift to the right is not to be expected. The challenges for the new government are great.

Dr. Beatrice Gorawantschy, Meike Lenzner
February 5, 2025
Country reports
PantherMedia / daniel0

Mexico: Turbulent start to a landmark year

An overview of current political events

The year 2025 in Mexico began with a series of notable events: In addition to an early first assessment of the new government of President Claudia Sheinbaum, who celebrated extensively after just 100 days in office, the highly optimistic economic development plan, Plan México, made headlines. Internationally, the (supposed?) breakthrough in the renewed EU-Mexico Global Agreement surprised observers, before the inauguration of Donald Trump in Washington and the hourly announced executive orders regarding migration, trade, and security dominated the political agenda. A considerable noise level at the beginning of the year. It remains to be seen what consequences will arise from this in the coming months.

Hans-Hartwig Blomeier, Maximilian Strobel
January 30, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / Panthermedia

Between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean: Morocco's maritime security strategy

Complex transnational challenges for the country's maritime security

The geopolitical developments in the Red Sea and Morocco's geostrategic position as an interface between Africa, Europe and the Americas pose complex transnational challenges for the country's maritime security. While Morocco benefits economically from the emerging importance of its ports, Morocco's sea areas are threatened by illegal migration, terrorist activities and international drug trafficking. Through a strategy of regional cooperation, Morocco seeks to use its Atlantic and Mediterranean identity to lower trade barriers while protecting itself from dangers. However, measures taken by the Moroccan navy make it clear that cooperation with both European and African states is indispensable for an effective security strategy.

Steven Höfner, Anna Weiße
January 30, 2025
Country reports
Courtesy of the Democratic Party for the People / https://new-kokumin.jp/news/policy/20241211_1 / schriftliche Freigabe für die Verwendung liegt dem Auslandsbüro vor

A New Reality in the Japanese Parliament

Transformation of LDP-Komeito Policy-Making Process After the 2024 General Election

In the 2024 general election, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, lost their majority, which subsequently affected the policy-making process of the ruling bloc. The minority LDP-Komeito government was compelled to seek support from opposition parties to realize its policies, adopting a more humble approach. This paper reviews the results of the general election in brief and the consequent transformation of the LDP-Komeito policy-making process during the extraordinary Diet session in 2024 and offers reflections by the author.

Naoki Takiguchi
January 30, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / Avalon.red

Trump’s Trade Warriors

Trade Experts Share Common Goals, Diverge on Methods

New and higher tariffs were a key campaign promise of Donald Trump. The president aims to eliminate perceived injustices and trade deficits while increasing government revenue. However, he has delayed their introduction for the time being. We analyze the advisors influencing Trump's trade policy and their impact.

Dr. Hardy Ostry, Jan Bösche
January 29, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / SNA

Transnistria without gas and Chişinău in crisis mode. A difficult winter in the Republic of Moldova

Russia's gas supply freeze aims at political stability in the country

Since January 1, 2025, the Republic of Moldova has been in a double energy crisis with political explosive force. Gazprom had previously suspended its free gas supplies to the Russian-dependent region of Transnistria in the east of the country. As a result of the supply stop, the power supply for the whole of Moldova is also at risk. Only the coming weeks and months will show what consequences these energy crises will have on political developments in the Republic of Moldova. However, it is already clear that Russia is prepared to give up the status quo in the Transnistrian conflict. Moscow's overarching goal is to influence the parliamentary elections in the fall of 2025.

Brigitta Triebel
January 29, 2025
Country reports
Vecteezy / rgaywala

Does South Asia exist?

Taking stock of a notoriously poorly connected region

Indians are aware that they are perceived as part of the continent of Asia. However, although their homeland is in Asia, they have not developed a self-image as Asians. When Indians go out for “Asian” food, they mean Chinese or Japanese cuisine. South Asia is also a foreign term that emerged after the independence of British India. It is a linguistic attempt not to reduce the region that was previously called India to the Republic of India. South Asia is often underestimated as a geographical area in Germany. While many wonder when Africa’s population will reach the 2 billion mark, there are already 2.02 billion people living in South Asia if India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and the Maldives are added together. But can these countries even be called South Asia? This country report is a reality check for that term.

Dr. Adrian Haack
January 29, 2025
Country reports
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