EPP Party Barometer July/August 2018

Strongest political family in national opinion polls (July/August 2018)

Election results of the strongest EPP member party in the last national election

Cumulated election results of all parties belonging to the EPP family

Cumulated election results of the PES/S&D family (Socialists & Social Democrats) in the last national parliamentary election

Results of parties belonging to the EPP familly in the 2014 EP elections

Strongest party family in the 2014 EP elections

Possible seat distribution in the coming EP – Scenario 1 – Status Quo

Possible seat distribution in the coming EP – Scenario 2 – Europe en Marche

Possible seat distribution in the coming EP – Scenario 3 – United Radicals

Government participation of parties affiliated to the EPP, as of 31 August 2018

Heads of State and Government and their political family (as of 31 August 2018)

The EPP Family in the EU – Which parties belong to the EPP?

Summary and latest developments

• Parties belonging to the EPP family are (in national polls) the strongest political family in 13 countries (-1 compared to the last party barometer). The Socialist family is leading in 6 (+2), the Eurosceptic Conservatives in 4 (+1), the Liberal family in 3 (-1) countries. In France, an independent movement (Macron / LREM) is leading in the polls, in Italy the far-right is the strongest political group.
• In many countries, the advantage of the leading political family in the opinion polls is very slim (Denmark, Sweden, Spain, Slovakia, Finland, United Kingdom).
• Parties of the EPP familiy enjoy a relatively strong support in the opinion polls (above 30%) in Germany, Hungary, Austria, Croatia, Bulgaria, Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Romania and Cyprus
• In the European Council, 8 Heads of State and Government belong to the EPP family, 7 (8)* to the Liberals, 5 to the Socialists/Social Democrats, 2 to the Eurosceptic Conservatives, one to the European Left. 5 (4)* are formally independent

The upcoming European elections:

• Despite (significant) losses in bigger member states, the EPP would likely remain the strongest political family (176-196 seats) in the EP (25.0%-27.8% of seats)
• In relative terms, the share of the EPP group (currently 29.2% of the seats) would only moderately be reduced, as the EPP Group will suffer less from the departure of the British MEPs than other political groups
• Parties of the far-right (ENF and others) and the far-left (GUE/NGL) might together receive up to 20% of the seats
• A coalition of EPP and S&D would not have a majority on its own but would need a third partner
• 66-68% of MEPs would continue to belong to moderate political groups (EPP, S&D, Liberals, Macron-led movement („Europe en Marche“), Greens)
• due to several unknown variables, the party barometer develops three different scenarios for the composition of the future European Parliament