Donald Trump could be the next US president. Despite his legal troubles, polls suggest that Trump is currently ahead of Joe Biden and is the favourite to win in November.1 Even if Biden ends up winning a larger share of the popular vote, Trump may be able to carry crucial states to win the electoral college, allowing him to secure victory. Trump’s first term led to transatlantic splits on a host of issues ranging from trade and defence burden-sharing to the Middle East. Relations under his successor Joe Biden have been much better, even though Biden’s trade policy has also been protectionist in many ways. A second Trump term would herald a new period of transatlantic turbulence, rekindling tensions on trade, NATO, Ukraine, China and the Middle East.
