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2nd Chanakya Chakra Roundtable analyzes Impending Developments in Afghanistan

by Romina Liesel Elbracht, Justin Bankemper
The second roundtable discussion organized by the Forum for Strategic Initiatives and the KAS India Office along with CENJOWS, CLAWS, CAPS, KIF and NMF, shifted its focus from an inherent Indian issue in the last meeting, towards an issue that attracts regional and global attention. Afghanistan, a state that has been in a challenging and difficult position for years, was the focal point as the situation there has regional and global implications.

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The roundtable discussion was initiated with a debate on the regional and global context and its implications for India. It was elaborated that Afghanistan would no longer be the most crucial global and notable American priority, even with its history of terrorism. In recent times, the US would rather see the increasingly rapid rise of China as a threat to their largely unchallenged hold as a world power.

Afghanistan only became the center of global attention after the 9/11 attacks. After 18 years of fighting the Taliban, the US has acknowledged its strategic defeat in the landlocked country and started to withdraw its troops, which would be leaving behind a highly volatile and complicated environment for the state facing the question whether a fusion of Taliban and the current Afghan government will be the necessary next step to form a future government and is that even possible.
 
However, the first wave effects of the outcome of the upcoming presidential elections will be felt by its closest neighbors, India being one of them. Simultaneously, US-President Trump was mentioned who had requested that India should get more involved in the Afghan security sector.
A direct neighbor to Afghanistan, Pakistan, located in between Afghanistan and India, was described as having notably increased its military presence at the Afghan-Pakistani border as it will try to encourage that those who would come into power as part of the next Afghan government will not be inimical towards them.
Thus the question arises: How much will actually depend on India?

The result of the US-Taliban talks would have been key to what would happen next. The talks had so far undermined the Afghan government, and had also made the American administration uncomfortable. The Taliban, as part of the ongoing negotiations, would continue to carry out attacks in Afghanistan, which resulted in there being no reassurance about whether they will adhere to what the parties will be signing. The question still remained as to who will rule, but moreover how the rule will manifest itself into a new constitution, how it happens and how it will affect the social-political dimension of Afghanistan which had decisively changed in the past decades. A rush agreement therefore will be an injustice to the state’s changes that have occurred and to the society itself. The economic implications of the peace deal were discussed as challenging for the Afghan state as the economy was described as unstable and the US development aid as continuously decreasing. With the Taliban ceasefire being ever so unlikely and the vague parameters of the US withdrawal and the Afghan presidential elections having the possibility of being postponed, there is total confusion regarding the current situation. This would result in the fear that the Taliban might join the Islamic State if they will not agree with the components of a potential peace agreement. 

The geo-strategic implications of development in Afghanistan affects its close neighbors China, Pakistan and India directly. China is currently focused on the construction of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Pakistan’s major water problem was described and with it the river Kabul, which could be the answer to ensure water security for the Pakistani country. In addition, Pakistan would want Afghanistan to accept the Durand Line, a frontier boundary which was established after 1897, dividing Afghanistan and British India. If the Taliban do come into power, India will want to open up talk corridors, to ensure that they will be able to balance Pakistan. India has always had limitations when it comes to Afghanistan, unlike the Chinese who have had work relations with the Taliban since the 50s. It was suggested that as India would be suffering extensively in Southeast Asia due to China’s BRI, the country should play a more prominent role in the Inter-Afghan peace talks. For the future, the key will be to understand that European countries as Germany have the same interests in Afghanistan as India. Furthermore, the Taliban would have no capacity in building a country based on democratic values which leads to the question if ideology should be the basis for engagement or non-engagement.

The event took place under the Chatham House Rules.





 

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