Event reports
Prominent speakers included Ambassador Lalit Mansingh (Retd), Former Foreign Secretary and Ambassador to USA, Ambassador Nalin Surie, Director General, Indian Council of World Affairs, Ambassador Kanwal Sibal, Former Foreign Secretary to Government of India, Ambassador K. S. Bajpai, Former Ambassador and former Indian Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and Mr Arno Kirchhof, Head of Political Department, German Embassy.
Other known intellects were Ambassador K. C. Singh, Former Ambassador to UAE and Iran, Mr Dhruva Jaishankar, Fellow, Foreign Policy at Brookings India, Mr Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, Foreign Editor at Hindustan Times, Ambassador Biren Nanda, Senior Fellow, Delhi Policy Group and Air Marshal (Retd.) Vinod Patney.
Maj. Gen Dipankar Banerjee introduced the day’s session wherein the idea was to conduct a Roundtable to exchange the ideas regarding the recent changes & developments in the USA, this was thus followed subsequently with two sessions. In session 1, discussion centered on likely foreign policy, national security prerogatives in the USA, followed by Session 2 wherein discussions centers on possible policy options for India.
Mr. Pankaj Madan said that this distinguished group present in the Roundtable session represents a multidimensional geostrategic acumen and experience in international relations, and the MEA would take a special interest in hearing about the trajectories that the world might witness in times to come under Trump’s presidency. He conveyed warm regards from the acting Representative to India of KAS Dr. Thomas Kunze and also debt of gratitude to Gen Banerjee.
Amb. Lalit Mansingh said that everything that Trump has done in his first 100 days is in his own words ‘unpresidented’. His first few days in office were marked by political polarization, incoherent policy and overall confusion. He sacked his first NSA, and was about to sack the current NSA. He questioned then what is in it for us Indians? Further he added that we don’t have the luxury of dismissing United States, as it’s still the most powerful military, economic, political power in the world, and every country in the world is affected by changes in policies of the United States administration. He said that our concern should not be with his persona but rather his policies.
In Session 1 Pramit Pal Chaudhuri said that the Korean question and the unpredictable nature of President Trump present a challenge but not an overall geo-political concern in the long run. Chaudhuri was uncertain as to what Germany expected from Trump, but readings from Merkel’s statements suggest Germany is troubled by Trump’s illiberal position on matters of immigration and Islam.
Ambassador K. C. Singh initiated the discussion by historicizing the wide canvas of US- West Asia relations and through this understanding, the present relevance of its dynamics. Taking a cue from Tillerson’s speech Amb Singh explained the need to look at the entire West Asian region as a part of a rebalance. In Tillerson’s speech it was mentioned that there is a new rebalancing where pursuing American values cannot be at the cost of the economy, a more realistic economy.
Ambassador Biren Nanda outlined the salient features of Trump administration’s policy towards China, India and Japan. On China, Nanda explained that in order to seek geopolitical or trade concessions from China, US administration must have the full range of instruments, from military forces to the threat of enforcing punitive tariffs and diluting the One-China Policy.
Ambassador Nalin Surie started by asking about the relevance of the first hundred days of the Trump Presidency. What was special about the first 100 days? In his view, President Trump's approach should not be viewed as being transactional. Surie opined that Trump is more a deal maker and there is a substantial difference between the two.
Ambassador Jaimini Bhagwati gave an overview of the economic implications of the Trump administration policies. He elucidated the concept of globalization and stressed that it is here to stay, irrespective of Trump’s unpredictable policy changes.
Amb K. Shankar Bajpai, the Dean of America Watchers in India concluded the session by giving an overview of global policy implications of the Trump administration. Bajpai assessed that the uncertainties involved are so infinite, every analysis is mere speculation, and practically entails reading tea leaves. As circumstances and events do not wait, and there remain many matters in which US needs to act, he hoped that certain continuities will prevail. However, implications for India are at best dubious and slightly uncomfortable.
Ambassador Kanwal Sibal gave outline on session 2 and commented on the transactional nature of US partnership arrangements under Trump that is focused on deal making rather than partnership. Sibal insisted on the need to focus on what the US can do for India, rather than what India can do for the US to win support from the new Administration.
In Session 2 of Policy implications for India Prof. Nayan Chanda, Founder and Editor –in- Chief of Yale Global Online said that due to issues with North Korea Trump has limited his engagement with ASEAN, which has led to other topics of interest like South China Sea being put on hold. He also mentioned about Trump’s visit on May 26th to NATO following the visit to the middle east would be crucial in determining his relationship with NATO. Further commenting on NAFTA He said that his diplomacy has come to be seen as a Mar-A-Lago approach-“You pay more if you want better service”.
Ambassador P.S Raghavan, Convener, National Security Advisory Board, Former Ambassador of India to Russia, Ireland & Czech Republic said that “recent US- Russia polarization ( in the context of Ukraine, Syria etc.) is driving Russia towards the Chinese, which isn’t a good signal for Indo-Chinese relations.
Dr. Arvind Virmani said that under Trump US would see a growth which will accelerate Domestic demand and also Increasing global demand will lead to increase in investments. As far as trade issues are concerned he said that impostion of customs duty is overall negative but it may act as a VAT which is positive being a destination tax, but at a macro level- because exchange rate would probably be opposite, the effect would be neutralised at best. (Or maybe a partial effect)
Lt. Gen. Ahuja, Deputy Chief of the Integrated Defense Staff (Policy Planning and Force development), said ‘’ Strategic vision is easy to implement and not easy to plan but defence acquisitions are hard to implement‘’. Adding to it he said success of the DTTI programme (Defence Technology and Trade Initiative) must rest on actual exchange of technology in significant areas of interest like aircraft carrier technology and aero-engine technology. Mr. Dhruva Jaishankar Fellow, Foreign Policy at Brookings India said that Global Governance of US will be hard to replace. He also said that working with Trump while hoping for a best case scenario, but USA’s inward looking policy or a distracted policy could also turn this into worst case scenario.
Concluding the discussion Major Gen. Dipanker Banerjee, Board of Governors of FSI said times are uncertain and we must work cautiously and in national interest.
The Report of the seminar will be put out soon.