THE CCP'S 100TH ANNIVERSARY AND THE NEXT DECADE AHEAD

Key Takeaway:

• A century after the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was founded by a group of young Chinese, the CCP under Xi Jinping now aspires to achieve the ultimate dream of authoritarian politics: an encompassing awareness of everything in its realm; the ability to prevent threats even before they are fully realized, a force of anticipation and control powered by new technology; and economic influence that allows it to influence and rewrite international rules to its liking.

• After Xi Jinping ascended to power he propounded the 'China Dream', which means making the Chinese people prosperous, the Chinese nation wealthy and strong including Sinicization of all ethnic groups, and the 'great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation'.

• On July 1, 2021, officially declared as the 100th anniversary of the CCP, Xi Jinping's nearly an hour-long speech was crafted to exude confidence blended with aggression and nationalism. It was calculated as much to concretize the CCP's monopoly on power in China as to rally nationalist sentiment against anti-China foreign forces and mobilise the people for achieving the second centenary goal under the CCP's leadership.

• Xi Jinping subtly directed credit towards himself when he declared "we have brought about a historic resolution to the problem of absolute poverty in China, and we are now marching in confident strides toward the second centenary goal of building China into a great modern socialist country in all respects."

• The dominant strain that ran through Xi Jinping's speech was that of the Party's indispensability to the people and country. It was credited with having raised China to its present level: "only socialism could save China, and that only socialism could develop China".

• Even though the tone in Xi Jinping's speech was to highlight the miracles of rapid economic growth and long-term social stability, China's economy has presently not recovered from COVID-19 -- something evident also from the persistently muted consumer spending. The country also faces a debt crisis, caused by years of excessive government and corporate spending.

• The Party's other claims of success seem greatly exaggerated. The environment is severely degraded, water is scarce, there is a food shortage and long-term trends undermine the state's structural viability. China, due to the Party's draconian and long-maintained one-child policy, is on track to experience history's sharpest population decline in the absence of war or disease: one analyst predicts a projected drop of about a billion people by the end of the century. Xi is taking China back to a state-dominated, closed system, returning China to totalitarianism.

• Second, Beijing has been roundly condemned for failing to stop the spread of COVID-19. Chinese efforts to hinder the World Health Organization's mission to Wuhan in January and February look like a tipping point, causing an evident shift in global opinion.

• China is roiling its borders. Not only are Chinese troops in Indian territory, China, since the middle of February, has been engaged in a series of boat-bumping and other incidents in the South China and East China Seas with six other countries. Moreover, China’s military has increased the tempo of dangerous intercepts of the US Navy in its peripheral waters and skies. There have been multiple threats of invasion of Taiwan in recent months. As China lashes out, everyone has to be concerned.

• The concern has heightened after Covid and this is reflected in how the international community views China.

• We have seen the US aggressively attempting to balance China in international affairs by re-entering into various multilateral agreements including the Paris Climate Agreement as Biden’s first major foreign policy decision. The vaccine distribution campaigns to reduce the gap with China on the vaccine diplomacy front, the G7 summit and the ‘Quad’ Security Dialogue are all initiatives meant to rival Beijing’s much vaunted BRI.

• This can also be seen in the way Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Taiwan feature in the US policy of balancing China. The US government has sanctioned several Chinese officers for their role in suppressing freedom in Hong Kong and also declared Beijing’s actions in Xinjiang as a genocide, pointing to potentially strong political implications.

• China today, under Xi Jinping, is very different from Deng Xiaoping ‘s “lying low” era or the “harmonious society” period espoused by Hu Jintao. On every front, Beijing has sought to expand its influence beyond its borders, whether it be through ambitious projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the Regional Economic Cooperation Framework, etc. or through subtle diplomacy measures including, but not limited to, the Confucius Institutes and the recent Covid vaccine diplomacy. Its actions confirm it is a new belligerent power on the rise.

• This will create more problems for China as it is not a world power and it never has been one, and if it becomes one, it will be new even for China. China has always had difficulties to understand the world, there is cultural autism, and through this follows political autism too.

• Coupled with this, China under Xi Jinping, thrives on rigid discipline that must be constantly enforced - so that normal social and institutional desires for more autonomy and freedoms do not arise and challenge the dictatorial regime. It is like a game of "whack-a-mole": a never-ending, but as history has taught us, ultimately a futile attempt to maintain total control.

• China is now, more than ever, a country driven by ideology and anyone who deals with politics or history will understand the danger that stalks states that act in such an ideological manner.