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Ambivalent Loyalty and Dissonance: Alawite Community Dynamics Amidst the Syrian War

by Dr. Rahaf Aldoughli, Dr. Haian Dukhan

An in-depth analysis of the socio-economic and political transformations within the Alawite community in Syria

How have historical marginalization, political manipulation, and socio-economic challenges reshaped the Alawites’ social identity, political affiliations, and perceptions?

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The Alawite community, which constitutes approximately 12% of Syria's population today, was historically marginalized and persecuted and thus developed a distinct cultural and religious identity. Especially since the start of the Syrian war, sectarian tensions, particularly between the Alawite and Sunni communities, exacerbated. The regime's strategy of portraying the conflict as a Sunni-led insurgency against minorities heightened existential fears among Alawites, resulting in increased militarization and mistrust.

Through a mixed-method approach, involving 150 surveys and 20 semi-structured interviews, the study explores the impacts of the Syrian civil war on the Alawite community. Amongst others, survey findings indicate that many Alawites view national dignity as tied to military strength and the eradication of extremist groups. Despite growing disillusionment with the Assad regime, fear of retribution and economic hardships have led many individuals to develop complex and conflicting political attitudes. This ambivalence results in a mixture of support, opposition, and neutrality towards the regime, reflecting a cautious approach influenced by both dissatisfaction and security concerns about potential consequences. The conflict has led to significant displacement, with many Alawites fleeing Sunni-dominated areas, further entrenching sectarian divides. Survey data reveals that many Alawites now associate their homeland with areas perceived as safe, predominantly Alawite regions. There has also been a notable decline in Arab national identity among Alawites, with a rise in a more insular Alawite identity. This shift is driven by historical persecution, economic hardship, and the regime's manipulation of sectarian fears.

Despite these challenges, there are efforts by some Alawite activists to foster local harmony and reconciliation. These initiatives often remain marginalized due to the complex political landscape and the risks associated with opposing both the regime and extremist elements. The report underscores the need for inclusive governance and addressing the community's grievances as crucial steps towards national reconciliation. Overall, the Alawite community's experiences during the Syrian conflict highlight the intricate interplay between historical marginalization, political manipulation, and socio-economic challenges. Addressing these grievances and fostering inclusive governance is essential for Syria's path towards reconciliation and peace. Against this backdrop, this report provides valuable insights as well as policy recommendations for developing effective post-conflict strategies.

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Michael Bauer

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Head of KAS Office Lebanon

michael.bauer@kas.de +961 (0)1 388 095/6 +961 (0) 1388097

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