Uruguay chooses a change of power

Joy and sorrow were close together on election night on November 24. While the supporters of the left-wing alliance Frente Amplio (FA) celebrated their election victory waving flags at central intersections of Montevideo, a hangover mood was the order of the day in the command of the governing coalition. Their candidate, Álvaro Delgado, of the conservative Partido Nacional (PN), had lost too clearly in the run-off election for the presidency against the FA candidate Yamandú Orsi. After 98.7 percent of the votes counted, the opposition candidate was almost four percentage points ahead of the representative of the government camp with 49.8 percent, who received 45.9 percent of the votes. The election result was thus clearer than most polls, which had predicted an extremely close race.

The election defeat is even more painful for the governing coalition because the government's record is more than presentable. It can look back on successful pandemic management, was able to contribute to stabilising the economic situation and significantly reducing inflation and has significantly advanced the expansion of infrastructure. The approval ratings for President Lacalle Pou are stable at around 50 percent, while only about 33 percent rate his work negatively.

As in the previous three terms of government of the FA, a government can be expected that will operate more centrally in economic policy but will take an identity-political-left-wing course on some social policy issues, which is particularly represented by the new vice president and former minister and mayor of Montevideo, Carolina Cosse. The government's cautious and so urgent necessary structural reforms should at least not be deepened further. Uruguay runs the risk of further encrusting structures, inflating the welfare state and increasing the state quota. As in the past Frente-Amplio governments, foreign policy is expected to be closer to left-wing authoritarian regimes in the region. Although rather passive, Yamandú Orsi is a member of the Grupo de Puebla, a group of left-wing politicians that embraces autocratic narratives and defends the regimes in Cuba and Venezuela. A friendly attitude towards China is also to be expected from the new Uruguayan government.

Nevertheless, nothing will change in the democratic constitution of the country. There is no doubt that a constitutional change of government and a respectful approach to democratic institutions are to be expected. This was evident on election night in the appreciative statements of the top candidates about their political opponents. With this culture, Uruguay stands towering as a model democratic country from a continent in which support for democracy continues to decline.

The future opposition will have to ask itself why it has not succeeded in building on the successes of the government a project that was successful at the ballot box and how it can renew itself programmatically. This reflection will ultimately decide what kind of opposition it will be.