Familiar Faces, New Priorities

In many European countries, recent elections have punished governing parties, leading to significant political shifts. In Ireland, however, the government’s composition has remained largely unchanged. Historically dominated by the two major parties—Fianna Fáil (EU: Renew) and Fine Gael (EU: EPP)—the political landscape has evolved into a three-party system, with Sinn Féin (EU: The Left) emerging as a strong contender following another impressive election result. With 39 seats (up 2 compared to 2020), Sinn Féin has become the second-largest party, behind Fianna Fáil with 48 seats (up 10) and ahead of Fine Gael with 38 seats (up 3). The clear winner of the election is Fianna Fáil.

Fine Gael, which comfortably led in the polls a month before the election, lost momentum towards the end, although it still managed to gain three seats. Another noteworthy aspect is the growing influence of independent candidates and smaller parties, which now constitute the largest bloc in the parliament. This is largely due to Ireland's electoral system, based on proportional representation with a single transferable vote (PR-STV). This system fosters a strong connection between candidates and their constituencies, leading to highly localized politics. It also explains the discrepancy between the percentage of votes and the actual seat distribution, as seats are awarded based on constituency-level majorities rather than national vote share. As a result, independent TDs play an increasingly central role in Irish politics.

Because they are not tied to party structures, independent TDs can respond flexibly to political developments and have a relatively easier path to winning a seat. Their importance becomes especially evident during coalition negotiations, as their support is crucial when no party achieves an outright majority. This dynamic played out once again in the aftermath of Ireland’s latest election, shaping the coalition-building process.

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