Fear is a bad advisor. Nevertheless, political decision-makers must also address the concerns and fears of their electorate. Until 2024, there was a fixed rule for Germans' feelings of threat: fear of global climate change due to global warming triggered the greatest fears in comparison. Recently, however, other concerns have taken over this top position. There have been some exciting developments since 2021. Furthermore, for the first time, values on the fears of BSW voters are available. When it comes to party supporters, the strong differences between AfD and Green supporters are also striking in terms of feelings of threat and show the strong polarization of both groups, which has increased over time. However, the analysis of feelings of threat in society also makes it clear that large sections of society are always ambivalent. For example, although concern about climate change has been declining in the top position for a long time, it is still one of the greatest perceived threats. The statement “At the moment, there are more important things than climate change” meets with neither majority approval nor rejection. The same applies to concerns about immigration and fear of xenophobia, which are shared by around a fifth of respondents. Feelings of threat are therefore less suitable for indicating clear political positions, but they are and remain a suitable instrument for measuring social moods.
Some of the results:
- Germans are currently most afraid of tensions between Europe and Russia, xenophobia and the AfD coming to power.
- Over time, it can be seen that fears of international (armed) conflicts have increased significantly in 2022. Concerns about an economic crisis have also risen (slightly).
- Fear of the effects of climate change has recently decreased, but is still perceived as one of the greater threats. This fear varies greatly among party supporters. There is a 72 percentage point difference between Green and AfD supporters.
- Over time, concerns about both immigration and xenophobia have increased. Around a fifth share both fears.
- Concern about xenophobia has recently increased at an above-average rate among all party supporters - with the exception of the AfD.
- The BSW's supporters fall strictly between CDU/CSU and AfD voters when it comes to feelings of threat and are far removed from the threat perceptions of left-wing voters.
