Where different social positions confront each other, a political space opens up. Within this space, people can adopt very different stances. Some are on the far right, others on the far left and the majority place themselves somewhere between these poles. If people share the same attitudes, they are presumably closer together and more likely to vote for the same party. It is therefore hardly surprising that the supporters of the parties differ geographically when it comes to welfare state, immigration or climate issues. This has always been the case.
Nevertheless, new questions arise with regard to the social climate of opinion and shifts in the party system: Have the distances between party supporters widened? Are there indications of increasing polarisation? Where does the electorate of the Sahra-Wagenknecht alliance fit into this political space?
The Konrad Adenauer Foundation regularly measures the political space in representative surveys using questions on migration, climate protection and welfare state preferences. This study provides data-based answers to the open questions. The results contribute to the understanding of social polarisation trends and the positioning of the electorate in the run-up to the 2025 federal elections.
Some of the results are:
- On the topics of immigration, climate protection and the welfare state, there has been a continuous shift in the climate of opinion of the centre of society in recent years.
- The strongest shift in German attitudes in recent years has been on the issue of climate protection. In the context of current domestic and foreign policy crises, the tendency in society as a whole to prioritise climate protection over economic growth has weakened considerably.
- Party supporters have become more homogeneous in their political attitudes overall. At the same time, the distances between the electorates of the different parties have grown. This explains the reduced willingness of voters to switch parties, particularly among AfD, BSW and CDU/CSU voters.
- Polarisation between party supporters is increasing. The gap between Green and AfD voters in terms of political attitudes is widening. Group-based rejection of the other side has also increased.
- Overall social polarisation has not increased since 2020. A majority of the population continues to hold centrist positions on political issues.
- The increase in support for the AfD is not leading to a more heterogeneous and therefore more moderate AfD electorate. Despite rising poll ratings, the positions of AfD voters have moved further to the right on average or remain at the known extremes when it comes to immigration.
These and other detailed findings can be found in the full study "Wachsende Unterschiede zwischen Wählerschaften" here as a PDF. Please note, to date the study is only available in German.
