Josef Schmid, the first person to hold a German chair in demography, wrote in 1999: ”Each great economic power holds a demographic potency”, wrote. The well-known quote from the French philosopher Auguste Comte, “Demography is destiny”, also underscores the significance of demographic developments for the future of a country. However, an increasing number of countries around the world, including great powers, are affected by demographic change – the ageing of their societies.
Does a shrinking, ageing population inevitably lead to a decline in the sense of a loss of power on the global stage, and does a growing population indicate an increase in a country's significance? How do different countries around the world address the challenges of demographic change, and how does this affect their respective positions in the global power structure? How does the factor of demographic influence the status of a great power?
To answer these questions, the following analysis examines the demographic situation in the USA and China, both regarded as great powers, in imperialist Russia, and in Japan, the country with the highest average age in the world. We also analyze demographic developments and the respective approaches to these developments in the middle powers India, Mexico, and Nigeria – countries where populations are still growing that generally act neutrally or in alternating ways in geopolitical contexts. This comparative analysis of economic, security and societal factors in countries with diverse demographic developments and political systems allows for a broad-based international perspective on the connections between demographic change and the global power structure.
There are clear indications that autocratic states in particular tend to neglect dealing with domestic challenges, which are being exacerbated with demographic change, in comparison to the efforts they undertake to achieve geo- and power-political ambitions. However, focusing on the needs of one´s own ageing society may have a positive long-term impact on a country´s position in the international power structure.
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The Monitor series deals with one main topic at a time from the perspective of KAS experts and places it in the political and social context on the basis of a few key points.
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