Iraq after the Election: Transformation of the Political Landscape

Preliminary Results

IHEC has published the preliminary election results on May 19. According to these results, Prime Minister Al-Abadi did not win any of the crucial constituencies, while Al-Sadr’s Sairoun Movement and Al-Ameri’s Conquest Alliance were successful in significant parts of the country. In predominantly Shiite Iraq, experts consider the Shiite provinces of the south to be the most important for the final outcome of the election. In these areas, Al-Sadr and Al-Ameri took the first ranks. Al-Abadi’s Victory Alliance only won in the predominantly Sunni province of Ninawa that was destroyed by ISIL. On a national level, however, the current Prime Minister lags behind Al-Sadr and Al-Ameri.

For now, this implies that a new power balance has been established in the Iraqi parliament, bringing with it a long government formation process with unclear results. Even in the past, the winners of the most votes or seats were not always able to form a majority government. The influence of external actors, especially the US and Iran, will also be crucial for the upcoming government formation process.

Preliminary results as of May 19, 2018:

Sairoun-Movement (Muqtada Al-Sadr): 54 seats

Conquest-Alliance (Hadi Al-Ameri): 47 seats

Victory-Alliance (Haider Al-Abadi): 42 seats

State of Law-Coalition (Nuri Al-Maliki): 26 seats

Democratic Party of Kurdistan (KDP): 25 seats

Al-Wataniya (Ayad Allawi): 21 seats

Hikma-List (Ammar al-Hakim): 19 seats

Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK): 18 seats

Please find the full version in the attached file.