Publications

Navigating the Storm?

The EU, the UK and Trump 2.0

This paper assesses the possible impact of a Trump presidency on transatlantic relations, European security, and the UK-EU relationship. First, it sets out what risks a second Trump presidency would pose for the UK and the EU, focusing on security and trade. Second, it analyses how the EU and the UK are thinking about and preparing for the prospect of a second Trump presidency. Finally, it assesses how a second Trump presidency could affect UK-EU relations and how likely it is to spark greater co-operation.

The start of a Labour era?

Dramatic defeat of the Tories in parliamentary elections in the United Kingdom

The Conservative Party under the previous Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was the big loser of the election. They lost 251 parliamentary seats, and with a vote share of 24.7%, they will only be represented by 121 seats in the British House of Commons in the future. On the winning side, a clear picture emerged: the Labour Party gained 211 seats and, with a vote share of 33.7%, will form the government with a total of 412 seats. Other winners included the Liberal Democrats, who, with 72 seats and 12.2%, achieved their best result in over 100 years. The right-wing populist Reform UK also made a statement with 14.3% of the vote, although they received only five mandates due to the British first-past-the-post system. The new government under Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces enormous challenges in domestic and foreign policy. The British Conservatives must first deal with a personnel and strategic party reboot in the opposition.

Working Hand in Hand?

EU-UK Co-operation in Supporting Ukraine

The post-Brexit UK-EU Trade and Co-operation agreement does not include provisions on formal foreign policy co-operation. Even so, the UK, Germany and other EU countries have closely co-ordinated their response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They imposed a set of broad economic sanctions on Russia and provided Ukraine with extensive military and financial support. The key forums for political co-ordination between the UK and its European partners have been the G7 and NATO. This is largely because the US, a member of both organisations, has played a leading role in shaping the Western response to the conflict. Direct UK-EU co-operation has also been important, particularly on sanctions.

Local Elections with National Impact

The beginning of damage control for the British Conservatives?

The recent local elections have unsurprisingly not provided the Conservative Party with a promising foundation for the upcoming parliamentary elections. They suffered significant losses in large parts of England. In only one of eleven major city regions will a Tory mayor operate in the future. In nationwide polls, the opposition Labour Party ranks a whopping 20 percentage points ahead of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's party. Is there still hope for the British Conservatives, or is it now just about damage control?

Facing difficult dilemmas

Rishi Sunak and the Tories ahead of the 2024 elections

In the polls, the opposition Labour Party is far ahead of the ruling Conservatives. With the appointment of David Cameron as Foreign Secretary, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who is under immense pressure, has certainly pulled off a coup. This risky move hints at the outlines of the strategy the British Conservatives will take into the 2024 election year.

Building UK-EU bridges Convergent China policies?

By Ian Bond

This policy brief is the third of a three-paper CER/KAS project, "Shared Values, Common Challenges – UK European Security Co-operation after the War in Ukraine."

EU-UK co-operation in defence capabilities after the war in Ukraine

By Luigi Scazzieri

This policy brief is the second of a three-paper CER/KAS project, “Shared Values, Common Challenges - UK European Security Co-operation after the War in Ukraine.”

Can the European Political Community be a bridge between the UK and the EU?

By Luigi Scazzieri

This policy brief is the first of a three paper CER/KAS project, 'Shared Values, Common Challenges - UK European Security Co-operation after the War in Ukraine.' This paper focuses on the European Political Community, while the other two will focus on defence capabilities and China policy respectively.

The Integrated Review Refresh 2023

The Integrated Review Refresh is intended to update the 2021 Integrated Review, a key document of British foreign policy, in light of a shifting world situation.

Germany is still working on a national security strategy and the governing coalition has not been able to agree on the establishment of a National Security Council. In contrast, the British government last month delivered: The Integrated Review Refresh 2023 (IRR23) builds on the Integrated Review (IR) of two years prior and is a key geostrategic document. In around 60 pages, it sets out the goals of British foreign policy and outlines strategies for achieving them. The added value of the IR is that it does not get bogged down in details, but strives to integrate the priorities of the United Kingdom (UK) in different policy areas and for different regions of the world into an overall picture that is as coherent as possible. The overall picture, which can be gleaned from the current IRR23 is similar to that of the 2021 IR but exhibits some differences that are particularly significant for Germany and Europe. The latter suggest that the post-Brexit UK has now overcome the bombast and hubris of the Johnson years and found a healthier balance between strategic ambition and pragmatism.

UK Defence and Security Relationships Across Europe

A new interactive map provides a user-friendly overview, highlighting priorities and gaps