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Background Report

Brexit Reset in Brussels

The informal EU summit on 3 February 2025 in Brussels marked the first time a British Prime Minister participated since Brexit. For PM Keir Starmer, it was a crucial opportunity to reset the United Kingdom’s (UK) relationship with the European Union under the banner of a “Brexit Reset.” Unlike any other Prime Minister since Theresa May, Starmer has set a comprehensive revision of UK-EU relations as his goal. Accordingly, he has established a dedicated team within the Cabinet Office, led by EU Minister Nick Thomas-Symonds, to handle negotiations with the EU. At the same time, the Prime Minister has publicly committed to substantive red lines, ruling out a return to the Single Market, the Customs Union, or freedom of movement. Instead, the UK seeks tailored agreements in trade policy, crime prevention, and security cooperation.

Dr. Canan Atilgan, Sebastian Schnorrenberg
February 5, 2025
Single title
IMAGO / Xinhua

Familiar Faces, New Priorities

Government Formation and Priority Setting in Ireland after the 2024 Parliamentary Elections

The fastest coalition negotiations in recent Irish history have concluded. A process that previously took nearly six months was completed in just six weeks. Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and independent TDs have formed a center-right coalition that secures a majority in Dáil Éireann, the lower house of parliament. Micheál Martin (Fianna Fáil) will initially serve as Taoiseach (Prime Minister) and alternate with Simon Harris (Fine Gael). While governing parties in many European countries have faced significant losses, Ireland's political landscape has remained stable. The government program, "Securing Ireland's Future," focuses on economic stability, infrastructure investment, and cautious reforms. However, social inequality and rising rents remain two of the many unresolved issues. Whether Ireland’s economic success will reach the broader population is the central challenge for the new coalition.

Dr. Canan Atilgan, Lukas Wick
January 28, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / UPI Photo

The Political Landscape in the United Kingdom

A Review Six Months After the Change of Government

Europe is shifting politically to the right. Across the continent, right-wing populist parties are gaining influence or are already part of governing coalitions. At first glance, the United Kingdom seems to be an exception. Six months ago, Keir Starmer led the Labour Party to power with a supermajority. However, a closer look at public opinion and current polling reveals that the British public has not shifted to the left—quite the opposite. It is steadily moving to the right—on various issues and at different speeds, but increasingly away from Labour. Over the past six months, the proportion of voters supporting the right-wing political bloc has risen from 38 per cent to nearly 50 per cent. The political landscape of Britain is undergoing significant change.

Dr. Canan Atilgan
January 22, 2025
Country reports

All at sea?

UK-German co-operation in the Nordic-Baltic region

This paper explores the potential for UK-German security cooperation in the Nordic-Baltic region, a strategically vital area for both countries that remains under pressure from Russian influence. As competition in the region persists, particularly in the Baltic Sea, which is far from a peaceful 'NATO lake,' both the UK and Germany are already engaged in strengthening regional security. The UK plays a key role through its leadership in the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) and NATO deployments in Estonia, while Germany enhances its land and maritime presence, notably with a brigade stationed in Lithuania and the Baltic Maritime Component Command.

Ian Bond
September 25, 2024
Single title

Navigating the Storm?

The EU, the UK and Trump 2.0

This paper assesses the possible impact of a Trump presidency on transatlantic relations, European security, and the UK-EU relationship. First, it sets out what risks a second Trump presidency would pose for the UK and the EU, focusing on security and trade. Second, it analyses how the EU and the UK are thinking about and preparing for the prospect of a second Trump presidency. Finally, it assesses how a second Trump presidency could affect UK-EU relations and how likely it is to spark greater co-operation.

Luigi Scazzieri
July 10, 2024
Single title
IMAGO / Cover-Images

The start of a Labour era?

Dramatic defeat of the Tories in parliamentary elections in the United Kingdom

The Conservative Party under the previous Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was the big loser of the election. They lost 251 parliamentary seats, and with a vote share of 24.7%, they will only be represented by 121 seats in the British House of Commons in the future. On the winning side, a clear picture emerged: the Labour Party gained 211 seats and, with a vote share of 33.7%, will form the government with a total of 412 seats. Other winners included the Liberal Democrats, who, with 72 seats and 12.2%, achieved their best result in over 100 years. The right-wing populist Reform UK also made a statement with 14.3% of the vote, although they received only five mandates due to the British first-past-the-post system. The new government under Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces enormous challenges in domestic and foreign policy. The British Conservatives must first deal with a personnel and strategic party reboot in the opposition.

Matthias Barner, Lukas Wick
July 8, 2024
Country reports

Working Hand in Hand?

EU-UK Co-operation in Supporting Ukraine

The post-Brexit UK-EU Trade and Co-operation agreement does not include provisions on formal foreign policy co-operation. Even so, the UK, Germany and other EU countries have closely co-ordinated their response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They imposed a set of broad economic sanctions on Russia and provided Ukraine with extensive military and financial support. The key forums for political co-ordination between the UK and its European partners have been the G7 and NATO. This is largely because the US, a member of both organisations, has played a leading role in shaping the Western response to the conflict. Direct UK-EU co-operation has also been important, particularly on sanctions.

Ian Bond, Luigi Scazzieri
May 20, 2024
Single title
IMAGO / SOPA Images

Local Elections with National Impact

The beginning of damage control for the British Conservatives?

The recent local elections have unsurprisingly not provided the Conservative Party with a promising foundation for the upcoming parliamentary elections. They suffered significant losses in large parts of England. In only one of eleven major city regions will a Tory mayor operate in the future. In nationwide polls, the opposition Labour Party ranks a whopping 20 percentage points ahead of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's party. Is there still hope for the British Conservatives, or is it now just about damage control?

Matthias Barner, Lukas Wick
May 10, 2024
Country reports
IMAGO / NurPhoto

Facing difficult dilemmas

Rishi Sunak and the Tories ahead of the 2024 elections

In the polls, the opposition Labour Party is far ahead of the ruling Conservatives. With the appointment of David Cameron as Foreign Secretary, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who is under immense pressure, has certainly pulled off a coup. This risky move hints at the outlines of the strategy the British Conservatives will take into the 2024 election year.

Matthias Barner, Sebastian Schnorrenberg
November 28, 2023
Country reports

Building UK-EU bridges Convergent China policies?

By Ian Bond

This policy brief is the third of a three-paper CER/KAS project, "Shared Values, Common Challenges – UK European Security Co-operation after the War in Ukraine."

July 10, 2023
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