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Israel one year after the Hamas terror attack

One war, multiple fronts

October 7th, 2024 marks the first anniversary of Hamas' terrorist attack on Israel and the war the country has been forced to fight on several fronts ever since. There are still 101 Israelis hostages held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The security situation in the country has repeatedly changed and intensified over the past year. In particular in the north, the conflict with Hezbollah has escalated further and further over the summer months. Israel has already deployed significant forces to the north in recent months. Following the killing of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, Israel began a ground offensive in southern Lebanon. However, the front with Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the one with Hezbollah in the north are not the only ones Israel had to deal with in the last year. On October 1st, Israel was (once again) directly attacked by Iran with a large number of ballistic missiles. An Israeli response to this attack is still pending but is to be expected. One year after the Hamas terror attack, the (security) situation in Israel and the current escalation can be analyzed and understood along the various fronts and conflict hotspots.

Michael Rimmel, Johannes Sosada
October 7, 2024
Country reports
Imago / Xinhua

Escalation in the Middle East intensifies

Is a regional war inevitable?

• In just over a month, we will mark the first anniversary of the Hamas terror attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Since then, Israel has been at war with attacks from several fronts.
• The situation dramatically peaked over the summer months. Twelve children were killed in a Hezbollah rocket attack. The Israeli army (IDF) then took out a high-ranking Hezbollah commander in Beirut with a targeted airstrike. A few hours later, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyya was killed in Tehran. Although not officially confirmed, the attack is attributed to Israel.
• Iran and its proxies vowed retaliation and announced to attack Israel. The IDF and Israeli security services have been on high alert ever since. On August 25, 2024, an imminent Hezbollah attack was repelled by a pre-emptive strike. Over 100 Israeli fighter jets attacked numerous targets in Lebanon and destroyed over 6,000 Hezbollah missiles and drones.
• At the end of August representatives of the Israeli government announced that the war aims will be extended so that the evacuated inhabitants of northern Israel could return to their homes.
• Negotiations on an agreement between Israel and Hamas to free the Israeli hostages abducted on October 7th and a ceasefire appear to have reached an impasse. Since August 28, 2024, Israel has also been conducting a major military operation in the West Bank with the aim of preventing further attacks from there.

Michael Rimmel, Johannes Sosada
September 2, 2024
Country reports

Iranian attack on Israel

A turning point with unforeseeable consequences

On 14 April 2024, Iran directly attacked Israel militarily for the first time. This Iranian attack is a turning point in the Middle East and dominates the current international debate. While US President Joe Biden, the German government and the G7 are calling for calm and de-escalation, the reaction of the Israeli war cabinet led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is being eagerly awaited. So far, it has not been announced whether and how Israel might react to the Iranian attack.

Dr. Thomas Volk
April 15, 2024
Single title

New KAP Survey of Arab Citizens in Israel

In-depth survey of Arab society’s views on the war between Israel and Hamas

Read the findings from an insightful and fascinating survey among the Arab population in Israel that was conducted by our Program for Jewish-Arab Cooperation at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, Tel Aviv University. It is an in-depth survey of Arab society's views on the war between Israel and Hamas and the aftermath of the massacre of October 7th.

December 4, 2023
Single title
picture alliance/dpa | Fabian Sommer

Attack on Israel

Hamas attack shakes the Jewish state and raises questions about the country's security and future.

In the early morning hours of October 7, Hamas launched massive rocket attacks on Israel and simultaneously attacked the Jewish state on other fronts, on the ground and at sea - an unprecedented, concerted and targeted act of violence. Israel was surprised not only by the frequency of the rocket attacks, but also by the brutality of the attacks on the ground, which revealed an entirely new dimension. Terrorists were able to penetrate the heavily secured border fence around the Gaza Strip into Israeli localities in the border area, and there were numerous hostage-takings of soldiers and civilians and kidnappings of Israelis in the Gaza Strip.

Dr. Beatrice Gorawantschy
October 8, 2023
Single title
IMAGO / IPON

Israel's regional foreign and security policy

Between Domestic Volatility, Regional Frictions and External Threats

Just days after Israel's President Isaac Herzog reassured the Biden administration about the state of democracy in Israel and praised the importance of bilateral relations with the US in his speech before the US Congress, the Knesset passed a portion of the controversial judicial reform shortly before its parliamentary summer break in late July. The debates surrounding the reform, which its opponents view as a threat to the democratic nature of the state, along with protests from various groups, have significantly heightened societal polarization in Israel over the past few months.

Additionally, security experts have increasingly warned of risks to Israel's internal and external security. These concerns were seemingly confirmed when, in the course of the last few weeks, more and more reservists declared their refusal to serve - in protest against the government's plans. Fears of a progressive erosion of social cohesion and consequently diminishing national resilience, which is considered by Israelis as an essential component of both internal and external security, are finding their foreign and security policy equivalent in the tense security situation on Israel's northern border, an escalating spiral of violence between Israelis and Palestinians, a more aggressive settlement policy under the current government, as well as closed doors for Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington and in the Arab Gulf.

Israel's Prime Minister, who in the past was attested by supporters and opponents alike to have an excellent sense of foreign and security policy – often referred to as "Mr. Security" – has propelled himself into a predicament in this area as well; his hardline political coalition partners have played a not inconsiderable role in this. An overview of the current regional foreign and security policy developments highlights the various areas of tension.

Dr. Beatrice Gorawantschy, Lina Michelsen
August 30, 2023
Country reports
IMAGO / UPI Photo

Israel's Judicial Reform

Despite massive opposition, the Knesset passes a core element of the controversial judicial reform

On July 24, the right-wing coalition government, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, voted to abolish the so-called “reasonableness clause”. Until now, the clause allowed the court to declare government decisions, or even the appointment of ministers, as "unreasonable" and thus prevent them. The opposition boycotted the vote and left the plenary amid loud protest - symbolically the vote went 64:0. Now, the passed law, which is a core element of the controversial judicial reform, restricts the Israeli Supreme Court's ability to act.

Johannes Sosada
July 26, 2023
Country reports
IMAGO / ZUMA Wire

Israel Between Uproar and Paralysis

A part of the controversial judicial reform has been approved by the Israeli parliament following the first reading

In the early hours of Tuesday, 11 July 2023, a part of the controversial judicial reform – the Reasonableness Standard Bill” – has been approved after its first reading at the Knesset. Supporters of the now-initiated bill are hopeful that this will end what they deem an unjustified and undemocratic interference of the Supreme Court in government decisions. Critics, however, consider this step a threat to the separation of powers. Protests erupted inside and outside the Knesset as a result of the first reading of the bill. It should be noted that the demonstrations against the policies of the government, especially the judicial reform, now continue into their 27th week. A vibrant civil society consisting of different societal sector and political streams has been taking to the streets every single week since the beginning of this year to peacefully demonstrate for democratic values. Over the course of the past few weeks, these protests have been taking on a new dimension in the form of substantial road blocks and with tyres being burned. The response of the security forces, on the other hand, is growing increasingly firm. However, the protests shed light on other aspects as well. While the judicial reform might be a primary factor, these events also indicate the extent to which Israeli society is divided.

Dr. Beatrice Gorawantschy, Johannes Sosada
July 12, 2023
Country reports

The Latest Publication of the Konrad Adenauer Program for Jewish-Arab Cooperation Is Out

The document sheds light on an inseparable part of society.

This poll is a product of the Konrad Adenauer Program for Jewish-Arab Cooperation at Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, Tel Aviv University.

June 27, 2023
Single title

Middle East and North Africa: The New Evolving Security Architecture

A publication by KAS and the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University

A product of our long-standing and close collaboration with the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University and a natural continuation of our joint Hiwar Forum for Intra-Regional Dialogue, this special Spring 2023 issue of Orbis focuses on the new evolving security architecture in the Middle East and North Africa. This volume brings together researchers from Bahrain, Jordan, Morocco, Israel, the United States and Europe. These scholars provide insights into the key developments in the MENA region in the context of waves of popular uprisings, toppled regimes, regional competition, violence, suffering, power shifts in the region, the repercussions of the pandemic but also the Abraham Accords, a decisive step towards ending the Arab-Israeli conflict. The contributors include Joshua S. Krasna, Brandon Friedman, Omar Al-Ubaydli, Farah Bdour, Hadar Lasry, Mohamed Chtatou, Cinzia Bianco, Corrado Cok and Lindsay J. Benstead.

April 20, 2023
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