All publications - Security – Innovation – Democracy
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IMAGO / Pacific Press Agency
Mali conflict
Mauritania becomes a refuge and main transit country to the European Union
The European Union is seeing a decline in migration from North Africa via the central Mediterranean, as smugglers are increasingly using the Atlantic route from Mauritania to the Canary Islands. At the same time, the Sahel region is increasingly becoming a refuge for Malians fleeing offensives by Russian mercenaries against jihadists. There is now the threat of a lot of social explosives, as the United Nations is having to significantly reduce aid for Malian refugees due to the Trump administration's cutbacks.
Ulf Laessing
April 1, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / photonews.at
Austria's political centre under pressure
The coalition of the last chance
After the longest government formation in the history of the Second Republic, Austria now has a new federal government. The process, which lasted more than five months, was characterized by two major ruptures: First, the negotiations for the so-called Zuckerl coalition of the Austrian People's Party (ÖVP), Social Democrats (SPÖ) and liberal NEOS failed. This led to the resignation of ÖVP leader and Federal Chancellor Karl Nehammer at the beginning of 2025. The subsequent coalition negotiations with the right-wing populist Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) led by its future chancellor Herbert Kickl were therefore led by the previous Secretary General and interim party chairman of the ÖVP, Christian Stocker. These negotiations also failed, so that the party returned to the beginning and - this time doomed to success, so to speak - managed to form a coalition between the ÖVP, SPÖ and NEOS after all. The more than 200-page program of the government led by Christian Stocker as Federal Chancellor is entitled “Doing the right thing now. For Austria”. It could be the last chance for the political center to prevent FPÖ chairman Kickl from becoming the next Chancellor.
Sebastian Enskat, M.A., Michael Stellwag, Johannes Spreitz
April 1, 2025
Country reports
KAS
Shaping Europe – Scenarios for the European Union in 2030
On the future of European security, economy and enlargement
The European Union faces growing geopolitical tensions, economic transformation, and the challenge of enlargement. How can the EU strengthen its security, maintain its competitiveness, and expand strategically? Six future scenarios illustrate possible developments up to 2030. Based on a scenario approach, the study provides strategic recommendations to enhance resilience, foster innovation, and ensure political cohesion. By making forward-looking decisions today, the EU can shape its role as a global leader in an increasingly uncertain world.
Lolita Čigāne, Philipp Köbe, Marie-Sophie Lanig, Annabelle Livet, Felix Müller, Tim Peter, Samina Sultan
March 31, 2025
Single title
IMAGO / Xinhua
Two years of civil war in Sudan
The latest developments in the crisis region
At the end of March, Sudanese media reported that the presidential palace in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, had been retaken by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The palace, which also serves as the seat of government, had been occupied by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April 2023, along with other parts of the capital. The recapture marks a major milestone for the Sudanese army in the ongoing conflict. Several ministry buildings and much of the capital are also back under SAF military control. However, an end to the war is not yet in sight, as RSF rebels still control several strategic areas of the country and fighting continues in other regions. Fighting continues particularly in Western Darfur. An end to the war is a long way off, as various local and international political initiatives remain unsuccessful. In the meantime, the people of Sudan are suffering one of the worst humanitarian disasters in the world.
Steffen Krüger
March 27, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / Bernhard Herrmann
Finland’s Response to Hybrid Threats in the Baltic Sea
Resilience through Comprehensive Security?
Finland’s decision to join the NATO alliance after decades of military neutrality in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has significantly acerbated relations with its Eastern Neighbour. The latest National Risk Assessment by the Finnish government emphasizes the dangers of hybrid threats, which could challenge Finland’s security environment. Its land border of more than 1,300 kilometres with Russia renders Finland particularly susceptible to Russian hybrid operations. Hybrid threats can take manifold shape, such as cyberattacks, disinformation, instrumentalized migration, or sabotage acts against critical infrastructure, including subsea electricity or data cables.
Lavinia Klarhoefer, Christine Leuchtenmüller
March 27, 2025
Country reports
IMAGO / Xinhua
Consensus amid Chaos
Korean Parliament passes pension reform
On 20 March 2025 the Korean National Assembly passed a pension reform. This historic decision, which was passed by both major parties despite fierce political debate, ushers in a new chapter for the pension system after 18 years. Despite ongoing challenges, the course for solutions in the face of serious demographic developments is set. Above all, it provides a striking contrast to the enormous polarization that otherwise characterizes Korean politics and has led to the current crisis.
Thomas Yoshimura, Yu-Jin Song
March 25, 2025
Country reports
Nipu / Adobe Stock
Perspective Trump 2.0
A New Era of Transatlantic Relations
Trump's current second term in office is fundamentally reshaping transatlantic relations. This anthology examines the geopolitical, economic, and security implications for Europe and Germany. It focuses on the realignment of U.S. foreign policy, the increased emphasis on the Indo-Pacific, and the consequences for trade, defense, and technology. What challenges arise, and how should Germany respond?
Dr. Peter Fischer-Bollin, Caroline Kanter, Evelyn Gaiser, Ferdinand Alexander Gehringer
March 21, 2025
Single title
Voter Fluidity in the 2024 National Elections
Prof Carin Runciman and Prof Marcel Paret
The report focuses on two key dynamics that were influential in the 2024 elections, voter fluidity and voter abstention. The report provides a brief methodological note and examines voter trajectories and voter abstention.
March 20, 2025
Single title
A Front Line with Jihadism Drawn in the Sand of the Sahel
Jihadist expansion in northern Benin and Togo threatens stability, as armed groups exploit local conflicts and socio-economic struggles to weaken state authority
This study examines the slow but steady expansion of jihadist groups into northern Benin and Togo, analyzing their tactics, the socio-economic impact, and the effectiveness of government responses.
March 19, 2025
Single title
Privatfoto / Vasilis Kougionis
Forest and vegetation fires in Greece 2024
Challenges, Impact & International aid
The year 2024 in Greece was marked by numerous and devastating forest fires. This season once again represented a considerable burden for the Greek civil protection and civil protection as well as the fire brigades. The damage to the environment was high, although it should be noted that significantly less area was burned than in the previous year. The government's measures for early detection
fires, the equipment of fire brigades, the reduction of fire loads and the harsh penalties for arsonists seem to be having an effect.
This report analyses the main causes and effects of the fires in Greece, compares the figures with 2023, identifies the structures of civil protection and presents international aid and its possibilities for improvement.
