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Monitor Election and Social Research

Analysis of the parliamentary election in Brandenburg on September 22, 2024

Report on the preliminary final result, the main voting determinants, voter migration and social structure

In the Brandenburg state election the SPD gains slightly more votes than the AfD. Prime minister Dietmar Woidke declared to continue office only if his social democratic party SPD gains more votes than the AfD. This resulted in a highly polarizied election campaign. SPD and AfD profited substantially while all other parties suffered.

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The state election in Brandenburg was strongly influenced by a neck-and-neck race between the SPD and AfD in the final weeks before the election. Prime minister Dietmar Woidke made his stay in office dependent on the SPD achieving a better result than the AfD. This led to a strong shift towards the SPD and AfD in the polls during the final weeks before the election, while the poll results for the other parties fell significantly.

In the end, the SPD is just ahead of the AfD, followed at a considerable distance by the BSW and CDU. All other parties failed to make it over the five percent hurdle. The direct mandates went exclusively to the SPD and AfD. This means that the Brandenburg state parliament now only consists of four parties.

Voters are very dissatisfied. In Brandenburg, only 20 percent are satisfied with the federal government. This dissatisfaction makes the strong results of the AfD and BSW possible in the first place.

You can read the complete election analysis for the state election in Brandenburg with an integrated table appendix here.

Please note, to date the study is only available in German.

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Contact

Dr. Viola Neu

Dr

Deputy Head of Division Analysis and Consulting,
Head of Department Electoral and Social Research

Viola.Neu@kas.de +49 30 26996-3506
Contact

Dr. Sabine Pokorny

Dr

Electoral and Social Research

sabine.pokorny@kas.de +49 30 26996-3544

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About this series

The publications of the Election and Social Research Monitor are part of our Monitor publication series. The Monitor series deals with one main topic at a time from the perspective of KAS experts and places it in the political and social context on the basis of a few key points.