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Monitor Election and Social Research

Analysis of the parliamentary election in Saxony on 1 September 2024

Report on the preliminary final result, the main voting determinants, voter migration and social structure.

The CDU becomes the strongest party in Saxony once again. The election analysis explains the result in comparison to the pre-election, voter migration and the main reasons for the election result. Based on the election day polls and surveys in the run-up to the election, the significance of the assessments of the leading candidates, party competences and the assessment of the government's performance for the election result are explained.

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The election results in Saxony differ from those in Thuringia primarily due to the positive image of Minister President Michael Kretschmer and a better perception of the CDU. However, the basic parameters of the political mood are almost identical to the pessimistic mood in Thuringia.
The elections in Thuringia and Saxony are continuing the trends of the European elections: losses for the ‘traffic light’ parties with continued high levels of dissatisfaction with the federal government, strengthening of the political fringes and widespread stagnation for the CDU.

The AfD and BSW supporters are united in their dissatisfaction, with the AfD supporters being even more dissatisfied than the BSW supporters. And dissatisfaction is not limited to the political sphere. Life satisfaction, satisfaction with democracy and trust in other people are low in both groups of supporters. Two trends have been stable among AfD supporters for some time: a low willingness to change and an immunisation towards political communication beyond the AfD.


The election analysis for the Saxony state election can be found here.
All graphs and tables on which the election analysis is based can be found in the appendix.


Please note, to date the study is only available in German.

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Contact

Dr. Viola Neu

Dr

Deputy Head of Division Analysis and Consulting,
Head of Department Electoral and Social Research

Viola.Neu@kas.de +49 30 26996-3506
Contact

Dr. Sabine Pokorny

Dr

Electoral and Social Research

sabine.pokorny@kas.de +49 30 26996-3544

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About this series

The publications of the Election and Social Research Monitor are part of our Monitor publication series. The Monitor series deals with one main topic at a time from the perspective of KAS experts and places it in the political and social context on the basis of a few key points.