Asset Publisher

Adobe Stock / hanohiki

Monitor Election and Social Research

Analysis of the Bundestag election in Germany on 23 February 2025

Detailed results of the Bundestag election, key determinants of the election outcome, voter migration, and social structure of the electorate.

The CDU/CSU wins the Bundestag election and becomes the strongest parliamentary group. The election analysis explains the result in comparison to the 2021 Bundestag election and looks at voter migration and the main reasons for the election result. Based on the election day polls and surveys in the run-up to the election, the importance of the assessments of top candidates, party competences and political issues for the election result is explained.

Asset Publisher

In view of the complex domestic and foreign policy problems, the political climate of opinion is characterised by uncertainty and dissatisfaction. Whether future prospects, economic assessments, opinions about parties and leading politicians, disappointment with the ‘traffic light’ coalition, attributions of competence to the parties or even their own economic situation, opinions are more sceptical everywhere than in 2021, with great dissatisfaction dominating in some cases. This has led to considerable losses for the ‘traffic light’ parties. Among the political centre parties only the CDU/CSU parties were able to make gains. Compared to the pre-election, the CDU/CSU increased its competence in all the problem areas surveyed. The greatest increase in competence was in the area of economic policy.

The political public tends to be more fragmented. This is particularly evident in the assessment of the parties' leading candidates. Beyond their own supporters, approval of politicians is low, whereas it is high among their own supporters. The motives for voting are heterogeneous. There is no issue that is rated similarly by large sections of the electorate. 

Once again, the increased voter turnout has benefited the political fringes. Compared to 2021, the German electorate is significantly more differentiated and polarised.

The election analysis for the Bundestag election can be found here.

Please note, to date the study is only available in German.

Asset Publisher

comment-portlet

Asset Publisher

About this series

The publications of the Election and Social Research Monitor are part of our Monitor publication series. The Monitor series deals with one main topic at a time from the perspective of KAS experts and places it in the political and social context on the basis of a few key points.